Advancing Renewable Energy: U.S. Energy Consumption and Solar Fit in 2009 - Prof. Herbert , Study notes of Mechanical Engineering

Download Advancing Renewable Energy: U.S. Energy Consumption and Solar Fit in 2009 - Prof. Herbert and more Study notes Mechanical Engineering in PDF only on Docsity! 1 ENERGY in 2009 and how solar fits in Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy Acknowledgements to: Patricia M. Dehmer, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/presentations/ and Dr. Sanford Klein, Professor, University of Wisconsin - Madison Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 2 Petroleum 30 40 u U.S. Energy Consumption by Source u U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Wood Hydroelectric Power Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Electric Power10 20 Qu ad rill ion B tu Qu ad rill ion B tu Incandescent lamp, 1870sWatt St 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 0 3 eam Engine, 1782 Intercontinental Rail System, mid 1800s U.S. and World Energy Consumption Today Energy Consumption Energy Population Production 5% 23% 17% Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 4 Population 5 Electricity Consumption per Person 1960-2001 13000 15000 NC FL GA North Carolina = 1,100 kWh/month U.S. Average = 800 kWh/month 7000 9000 11000 ua l k ilo w at t h ou rs pe r pe rs on PA CA WI US avg California = 500 kWh/month Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 3000 5000 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year an n Total energy consumption for the United States, 1950-1999. © 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers 6 Exports 4 U.S. Energy Flow, 2004 (Quads) 33% of U.S. primary energy is imported Production 70 Imports Consumption 100 En er gy S ou rc es (Q ua ds ) En er gy C on su m pt io n Se ct or s 11 33 Adjustments 1 U.S. Energy Flow, 2004 (Quads) 86% of primary energy is from fossil fuels, with 69% of the petroleum imported 12 7 U.S. Energy Flow, 2002 (Quads) 80% of energy for the transportation sector and 69% of energy for electricity generation/use is lost Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 10 There is a Significant Dislocation Between Fossil Fuel Supply and Demand Regional Share of 2004 Consumption vs Reserves Oil Gas Coal100 77% 60% 87% 64% 20 40 60 80 Rest of World N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific (Three largest energy markets) Source: BP Statistical Review 2005; Slide Courtesy: Steven E. Koonin, Chief Scientist, BP, plc Note: oil reserve figures do not include unconventional reserves estimates 10% Consumption Reserves 15% Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves 0 Proven world oil reserves in 1998. Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy © 2003 John Wiley and Sons Publishers 11 (When) Will Fossil Fuels Run Out? This depends on: SUPPLY, CONSUMPTION, and Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy ECONOMICS. These are intertwined. SUPPLY and ECONOMICS Define “Reserves,” “Resources,” and the “Resource Base” c fe as ib ili ty Additional Occurrences O M IC S si ng d eg re e of e co no m ic Resources Reserves R es ou rc e B as e H.-H. Rogner, An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Reserves, Ann. Rev. Energy Environ. 22, 217 (1997), Figure 1. SUPPLY Decreasing degree of geological assurance E C O N O D ec re a U.S. Energy Price Projections Annual Energy Outlook, 2005 (EIA/DOE) http:/Awww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ Figure 1, Energy prices, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per million Btu) ns 35 History Projections 30 %- 20- Electricity 16 10 $35/barrel _ Petrolewin Natural gas o— Coal 197019801990 2008 2015 2028 6.09 MMBTU = 1 barrel U.S. Energy Price Projections Annual Energy Outlook, 2007 (EIA/DOE) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiafiaeo/ Figure 1. Energy prices, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per million Btu) a» History Propections: a0 i on Blectricity 20 15 $72/barrel 10 Petroleum 5 Natural gas a Cl 1980 1990 2005 2020 2030 Projections are uncertain... 12 15 Peak Oil Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy We live in the middle of the Fossil Fuels Age U.S. Energy Consumption by Source What is the Future of the Cost of fossil fueled energy? ? 16 How do the Earth's land, water, air, and life interact to affect the environment? Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 31 Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 17 Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 33 Planets, Atmospheres, and Climate = -58oF A planet's climate is determined by its mass, its distance from the sun, and the composition of its atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. Carbon dioxide = 59oF = 788 oF accounts for 0.03 - 0.04%. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other minor gases absorb thermal radiation leaving the surface. These greenhouse gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface and enable it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be. Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be roughly -20°C = -4 °F. Sun 34 20 Since pre-industrial times, the concentration of greenhouse gases has increased. The CO2 concentration has increased by ~31%, methane by ~150%, and nitrous oxide by ~16%. The present concentration of CO2 (~375 parts per million) is the highest for 420,000 years and probably for the past 20 million years Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations for Various IPCC Scenarios CO2 concentrations are predicted to increase by a factor of two to three . The various IPCC scenarios all show CO2 concentrations continuing to increase during the 21st century. Even the most extreme scenario, which assumes that total primary energy use in 2100 is only slightly greater than that today (rather than a factor of 3 higher than that today in the more moderate B2 scenario), shows a CO2 concentration of about 550 parts per million, twice that of pre-industrial times. Other IPCC scenarios show CO2 concentrations increasing to 39 1,000 parts per million. Constant Emissions of CO2 Do Not Lead to Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations 21 Climate Models, CO2 Concentrations, and Temperature Change for Past Data Recorded global temperature change can be compared with computer models that predict temperature change under different "forcing" scenarios, (with "forcings" signifying external influences on the solar radiative budget of the planet greenhouse gases aerosols - , , increased solar radiation, and other agents). The charts compare observed temperature anomalies from the historic mean (red line) with the results of computer models that attempt to predict temperature based on the interactions of other environmental influences (gray line). The top two charts illustrate that models using natural and anthropogenic influences alone [Natural causes & Man-made causes] fail to match the observed record of temperature anomalies since 1866. But the combination 41 of natural and anthropogenic models [Natural and man- made causes] produces a close match to the measured data. This is seen as a clear "thumbprint" of human impacts on climate change. Based on results such as these, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001 report stated that "concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to increase as a result of human activities." CO2 Concentrations, Temperature, and Sea Level Rise Long After Emissions are Reduced 22 CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption (2002) million metric tons CO2 43 If We Can’t Rely on Fossil Fuels, then What? The options are nuclear and renewables, together only 15% of today’s primary energy. U.S. Energy Consumption by Source ? 25 Where are Solar, Wind, and the others? U.S. Energy Consumption by Source ? Renewable Energy Consumption by Major Sources, 2004 Solar 1% Wood 33% Waste 9% Wind 2% Conventional Renewable Energy 6% Hydroelectric Power 45% Geothermal 6% Alcohol Fuels 5% 26 A Recent DOE Analysis Articulated Four Broad National Energy Policy Goals 1. Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the market to meet U.S. needs 2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts (water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use 3. Create a more flexible, more reliable and higher capacity U.S. energy i f t t th b i i n ras ruc ure, ere y: mprov ng energy services throughout the economy; enabling use of diverse sources; and improving robustness against disruption 4. Improve the energy productivity (or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy 27 Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy Advancing Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Economy