Download Heuristics, Overconfidence, and Belief Perseverance: Influencing Decisions and Judgments and more Study notes Psychology in PDF only on Docsity! AP PSYCH Unit 7B.2 Making Decisions & Forming Judgments How do heuristics, overconfidence, & belief perseverance influence our decisions & judgments? Using & Misusing Heuristics Our mind’s automatic processing uses heuristics to make quick judgment decisions, but sometimes quick decisions can lead us to make bad decisions Representative Heuristics - making a judgment based on prototypes or stereotypes. Availability Heuristics - making a judgment based on the first thing that comes to mind. Tip: It will come down to how the question is worded on a test - because certainly both can apply EX: Representative-seeing a really tall person assuming that they play basketball, because they fit your prototype of the basketball player EX: Availability-thinking that getting the Zika virus is likely, Because it's in the news so much Using & Misusing Heuristics Which kills more people per year, shark attacks or hot dogs? Using & Misusing Heuristics Our mind’s automatic processing uses heuristics to make quick judgment decisions, but sometimes quick decisions can lead us to make bad decisions Representative heuristic – judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match particular prototypes (mental images); this may lead us to ignore other relevant information We may use this to override statistics or logic. Don’t judge a book by it’s cover! Using & Misusing Heuristics The availability heuristic – estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory; if instances come readily to mind, we presume such events to be common Ex. Casinos make a big deal about even small wins so that we are more likely to remember them than the losses which occur more often. Availability Heuristic Example
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Overconfidence Overconfidence – the tendency to be more confident than correct – to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments • We fail to appreciate our potential for error • Happens a lot right after a test you might take • American confidence before Vietnam, Iraq Overconfidence Yesterday someone asks you: How long will it take you to do your homework tonight? • Your answer: 1 hour • Reality: 3 hours Next week someone asks you: How long will it take you to do your homework tonight? • Your answer: 1 hour • Reality: 3 hours Despite our estimation mistakes, we remain overconfident with our next predictions Intuition It is our innate inclination toward a particular behavior (as opposed to a learned response). A gut feeling—or a hunch—is a sensation that appears quickly in consciousness (noticeable enough to be acted on if one chooses to) without us being fully aware of the underlying reasons for its occurrence. Intuition Intuition is a process that gives us the ability to know something directly without analytic reasoning, bridging the gap between the conscious and non-conscious parts of our mind, and also between instinct and reason. We think of intuition as a magical phenomenon—but hunches are formed out of our past experiences and knowledge. So while relying on gut feelings doesn't always lead to good decisions, it's not nearly as flighty a tactic as it may sound. Intuition When faced with complex choices the best solution comes after one is distracted and then comes back to the problem “Sleep on it” Framing The way an issue is posed. 10% of people die while undergoing this surgery 90% of people survive while undergoing this surgery. Can significantly affect decisions and judgments. Framing & Options Preferred portion size depends on framing Regular vs. small, regular vs. supersize Opt-out vs. Opt-in: Choosing to be an organ donor depends on where you live How to help employees decide to save for their retirement Framing Examples “Aid to the needy” vs. “welfare” Stores mark their “regular prices” up to appear to have huge savings. What is “social security”?
