US Energy Consumption and Renewable Fuels: A Comparative Analysis, Study notes of Chemistry

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Biofuels and Feedstock Potential by Ron Madl, Director Bioprocessing & Industrial Value Added Program and Co-director, Center for Sustainable Energy Kansas State University rmadl@ksu.edu Kansas State University Manhattan, Ks January 9, 2008 Outline Energy Consumption Drivers for Biofuels Biofuel Processes Feedstock Options Competition for Land Usage Facts and Figures: World Energy Use Natural Gas 22.9% Coal 22.4% Petroleum 39.9% Nuclear 6.8% 0 50 100 150 United States Far East/Oceania Central & South America Canada & Mexico Western Europe Eastern Europe/FSR Middle East Africa Quadrillion Btus World Energy Use 400 Quads Population ~ 6.5 billion 61.5 million Btu/capita Renewables 8.0% Facts & Figures: U.S. Energy Use Natural Gas 23% Coal 22.3%Petroleum 39.1% Nuclear 7.9% Renewables 7.7% U.S. Energy Use 106 Quads Population ~ 300 million 353 million Btu/capita Industry 36.9% Transportation 27% Residential 19.7% Commercial 16.4% 1015 BTU = 1 QUAD A burning Match 1 BTU A stick of Dynamite 2,000 100 hrs of TV 28,000 1 gallon of Gasoline 125,000 Annual food for one Person 3,500,000 Heat St Louis House/Year 90,000,000 Apollo 17 to the Moon 5,600,000,000 Hiroshima Atomic Bomb 80,000,000,000 Oklahoma energy/year 1,000,000,000,000,000 US Energy consumption 106,000,000,000,000,000 World Energy consump 400,000,000,000,000,000 Drivers for Renewable Fuels Global population growth 1803, 1927, 1960, 1974, 1987, 1999 Improved quality of life Fossil fuel availability Security/independence Climate change Energy policy The President's Proposed Energy Policy “Tonight I want to have an unpleasant talk with you about a problem unprecedented in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the greatest challenge our country will face during our lifetimes. The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly. It is a problem we will not solve in the next few years, and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century…We simply must balance our demand for energy with our rapidly shrinking resources. By acting now, we can control our future instead of letting the future control us.” Jimmy Carter Televised speech April 18, 1977 U.S. Consumption of Renewable Energy Total Renewable Energy Use 7.5 Quads 7.7% of U.S. Energy Consumption Hydroelectr ic 46.8% Wood and Waste 45% Solar & Wind 1.5% Geotherm al 5.2% Ethanol Fuel 1.5% Ethanol Industry at a Glance Number of operating ethanol plants: >120 Plants under construction or expansion: 86 Announced plants: 300* 2006 production: 4.6 billion gallons Projected production capacity: 9.5 BGPY at end of 2007 (RFS Program mandate 7.5 BG by 2012) Size: Newer plants 100 MGPY Process: dry or wet Daily water usage – 1.5 million gallons Historic feedstock percentage: Corn 97 Sorghum 2 Other 1 Coproducts from Corn Dry-grind Process One bushel of Corn Corn Dry-Grind Facility —-. 27 ee of <p | es a i Livestock Feed 56 |b per Bushel Using Corn in Modified Corn Processing — David Johnston By; Caroonyorate Bioconversion Wiel SUGAR STARCH CELLULOSIC FEEDSTOCK (present) (present) (future) TECHNOLOGY BIOMASS (e.g., corn stover, switchgrass) HYDROLYSIS. acid, ammonia opto fiber extraction @.g., corn, wheat, rice) ENZYMES glucoamylase SUGAR (e.g., cane juice) FERMENTATION Wirt ETHANOL (blend, E85) Amorphous Region Cellulose Lignin Hemicellulose Pretreatment Pretreatment gives enzyme accessible substrate Forest 12.8% Urban waste 2.9% Manure 4.1% Grains 5.2% Crop residues 7.6% Soy 6.2% Wheat straw 6.1%Corn stover19.9% Perennial crops 35.2% From: Billion ton Vision, DOE & USDA 2005 ~ 3 tons/acre US Biomass inventory = 1.3 billion tons Net Energy Balance Product Energy Out/Energy In Gasoline 0.81 Ethanol from grain 1.3 (In-place technology) Ethanol from grain 1.67 (Optimum technology) Ethanol from cellulose 2.00 (Conservative estimates) Diesel 0.83 Bio-diesel 3.2 Source: Congressional Research Service, RL32712, May 18, 2006 Transportation Issues Density of Biomass Handling steps add costs Biomass form should be easily conveyed at plant location Efficient transportation for bulky crops Storage Issues Storage Location * In field * Satellite depots * Conversion plant Change in composition Protection from elements Products of Fast Pyrolysis White Spruce Poplar Product Yields (wt %, mf) Water 11.6 12.2 Char 12.2 7.7 Gas 7.8 10.8 Pyrolytic Liquids 66.5 65.7 Gas Composition (wt %, mf) Hydrogen 0.02 -- CO 3.82 5.34 CO2 3.37 4.78 Hydrocarbons 0.62 0.69 Pyrolytic Liquid Composition (wt %, mf) Saccharides 3.26 2.43 Anhydrosugars 6.45 6.77 Aldehydes 10.14 14.04 Furans 0.35 -- Ketones 1.24 1.4 Alcohols 2.0 1.17 Carboxylic Acids 11.01 8.52 Pyrolytic Lignin 20.6 16.2 Phenols, Furans, etc. 11.4 15.2 Biorenewable Resources, Robert C Brown World Transport Vehicle Trends – Diesel Direct Impact on Biofuels Production and Demand Global diesel volume has grown by 40% in 5 years • US market 2007 << 1%; 2017 ~ 12% • Eastern Europe 2007 15%; 2017 ~ 50% Conditions for further expansion of diesel look right • High energy prices (diesel 33% more efficient versus gasoline) • Diesel technology has come of age • Global focus on CO 2 US will need diesel to hit fuel economy targets One Driver: World Transport Vehicle Trends – Diesel Direct Impact on Biofuels Production and Demand US Diesel Car Market 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 % T ot al C ar S al es 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 D ie se l C ar S al es (' 00 0s ) Volume (rhs) Share (lhs) Global share of diesel market has increased 40% in the last 5 years Conditions for further expansion of diesel look right: • Global focus on CO 2 & Energy Security High energy prices (diesel ~33% more efficient versus gasoline) Diesel technology has improved (not dirty diesels anymore) Where are the oilseed feedstocks going to come from to “fuel” this increase? US Diesel LT Market 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 % T ot al L T Sa le s 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 D ie se l L T Sa le s ('0 00 s) Volume (rhs) Share (lhs) Acreage in Crops (Millions of acres) 5 yr. Ave. 07/08 USDA 08/09, Projected Corn 79.6 93.6 88.0 Soybeans 74.2 63.7 70.0 Hay 62.4 61.8 61.8 Wheat 59.5 60.4 62.2 Cotton 14.1 10.9 10.0 Grain Sorghum 6.1 7.7 7.4 Principle Crops 297.9 298.1 299.4 CRP 37.0 35.9 34.9 Total crop land in the United States – 441.6 million acres U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage Million Acres 100 “= Corn —— Soybeans 90 80 aN w \ 60 —* go LE 1 1 i i pt dd 1987) 1989) 1991-1993, 1995 1997 = 1999) 2001-2003) 2005 = 2007 1988 «61990 «1992, 1994-1996 = 1998 )= 2000» 2002 2004 «=. 2006  U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage 90.0 85.0 09 = ° ~“ mi ° Million Acres ~ S a 65.0 4 60.0 55.0 7375 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 O01 03 05 Source: USDA WASDE Report: 3.30.07 Year KSU Dept. of Ag Econ www.agmanager.info  U.S. Corn Yield 2004 Yield = 160 bu./ac 2005 Yield= 148 bu.fac 2006 Predicted Yield= 149 bu.fac 80 4 Corn Yield 65 4 50 1 Source: USDA & KSU KSU Dept. of Ag Econ WASDE Report: 1.12.07 www.agmanager.info  Food, Alcohol, & Industrial Corn Usage > o tei in wl 2 2006 Estimate hs in rm in Billion Bushels MI So = 1 o in 1 UU 73°75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 Year Source: USDA WASDE Report: 3.30.07 KSU Dept. of Ag Econ www.agmanager.info World Corn Use Outpaces Production 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 19 79 /19 80 19 81 /19 82 19 83 /19 84 19 85 /19 86 19 87 /19 88 19 89 /19 90 19 91 /19 92 19 93 /19 94 19 95 /19 96 19 97 /19 98 19 99 /20 00 20 01 /20 02 20 03 /20 04 20 05 /20 06 Production Consumption Consumption in 2006/07 is forecast to increase 3% setting a new record. Production down from 2005/06. Stocks forecast to be second lowest in 34-years. Million MT Summary 140 B gal gasoline consumed/yr 52 B gal diesel consumed/yr Replace 30% of gasoline demand Replace 2 % of diesel demand - with crops from 27 % of crop land. Conclusions Biobased resources will supplement energy requirements, but not replace petroleum. Competition for grain and acreage. Carryover is historically low; weather will become key driver for food prices. All renewable energy resources needed – no silver bullet. Reduction of energy demand will be required. Thank You ?? QUESTIONS ??