Climate Change Impacts on Pacific NW Communities: Study on Consequences & Adaptation - Pro, Exams of Public Policy

Download Climate Change Impacts on Pacific NW Communities: Study on Consequences & Adaptation - Pro and more Exams Public Policy in PDF only on Docsity! CLIMATE PROTECTION IN EUGENE, SPRINGFIELD, AND LANE COUNTY An Assessment of Potential Consequences, Emission Trends, and Strategy Options April 15, 2005 Prepared By: Graduate Student Class PPPM 601: Global Warming and Abrupt Climate Change Department of Planning, Public Policy and Management University of Oregon Winter 2005 Acknowledgments This document was prepared by a team of graduate students as a class project for a class on global warming offered through the Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management at the University of Oregon in winter 2005 (PPPM 601: Global Warming and Abrupt Climate Change). The framework of the report was developed through a discussion in November 2004 with staff from the City of Eugene, City of Springfield, and Lane County government. At that meeting the officials outlined the topics they wanted to know about and agreed to supply data for the assessment to the extent possible. The UO graduate student team included Ethan Davis, Shaun Bollig, Renuka Vesepalli, Swati Sanghavi, Greta Onsgaard, Bart Melton and Nicole Luke. Bob Doppelt instructed the class. His teaching assistant was Shanda LeVan. We want to acknowledge the assistance of Jim Carlson, assistant city manager City of Eugene, Cynthia Pappas, assistant city manager City of Springfield, and Jeff Towery, Manager of the Land Management Permit Department with Lane County for their help in preparing this report. Special thanks is given to Lynne Eichner-Kelley, Energy Analyst for the City of Eugene, Bob Sprick with the City of Eugene Wastewater Division, and Jim Maloney, Energy Resource Manager with the Eugene Water and Electric Board for the time and energy they gave to gather data and assist the students with this report. ii Abrupt climate change threatens significant alterations to local ecosystems, economies, and social wellbeing. However, public and private organizations that have adopted climate protection plans have found that currently available, cost effective technologies and practices exist that cut the pollution causing global warming while at the same time reducing costs for energy, water, and raw materials, increasing efficiency and productivity, and generating whole new industries and jobs in fields such as energy efficiency, renewable energy and green building. Thus, climate protection plans can help local governments meet existing goals and improve the livability of their communities. These issues are discussed in Part IV of this report. A first step in the development of a climate protection plan is to understand the current and historic local generation levels of greenhouse gas emissions. This information provides a baseline from which mitigation plans can be developed. Using data provided by the City of Eugene, we analyzed emissions generated from internal government operations for the years 1994–2004. In the past decade, The City of Eugene’s internally generated greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 7.5%, from 21,993 metric tons CO2 equivalent in 1994 to 20,351 in 2004. We also determine the sources that contribute to total CO2e: buildings, wastewater treatment, lighting, fleets, and municipal solid waste. In 2004, wastewater treatment contributed the highest percentage of emissions at 44.7%, with buildings accounting for 33.8% of emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions produced by five other local governments are provided in Part III as a reference and to give an idea of what other city’s emissions are. A direct comparison was not made between Eugene and other local governments, because each of the six local governments used slightly different methodologies in assessing total CO2 emissions and there are differences in size of city population, size of city government and jurisdiction, and differences in climate. However, the emissions data is useful in seeing how Eugene’s emissions might stack up against others. It appears that total emissions nearly correlate with the size of the population that each local government serves. As population increases, the emissions increase at a similar rate. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Recommendations and Options Since 1992, the City of Eugene reported numerous internal actions that have reduced GHG emissions, including energy efficiency and energy use reduction programs, CO2 sequestration programs, and solid waste reduction and recycling programs. Subsequently, greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced or averted. The largest source of emissions reductions occurred when Eugene began to recover methane at the wastewater treatment plant in 1992. As mentioned, wastewater accounts for 44.7% of the City’s internal CO2e emissions, buildings account for almost 34%, while fleets, solid waste, and park lighting produce the remaining 21%. Therefore, the greatest leverage for reductions in total CO2 emissions may be found in additional measures being applied to the wastewater treatment plant and buildings. Specific recommendations for greenhouse gas reductions for the wastewater treatment plant include shifts to renewable energy and increased public education on water use efficiency aimed at decreasing total wastewater generated, and reducing the amount of organics in the wastewater stream. We also recommend more extensive use of green building practices for new construction and establishing efficiency standards well beyond current code for building upgrades, requiring Energy Star ratings for all ‘white goods’ (appliances), and where not already iii occurring, purchasing green power from EWEB or installing renewable energy sources (solar) on buildings. Other recommendations and examples of how other communities are approaching these tasks are offered in Part IV of this report. 1 PART I: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL WARMING AND ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE Introduction This document is a product of an applied graduate research seminar in global warming and abrupt climate change. Students were provided with the opportunity to learn about and develop an assessment of the causes, potential consequences, and possible local solutions to abrupt climate change. The class began with an investigation into the research produced by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder CO, and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group describing global warming and abrupt climate change. This research is summarized in Part I of this report. The class then investigated a scientific consensus report on climate change in the Pacific Northwest produced by Oregon State University as well as research by leading scientists, economists, and other researchers on the potential economic and social consequences of global warming and abrupt climate change. This led to an analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on the Northwest and Lane County. This research is described in Part II of this document: Potential Ecological and Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change. Using data provided by the City of Eugene, the class then quantified greenhouse gas emissions generated by the city’s municipal operations over the last ten years. The methodology and findings of this work are found in Part III: Quantification of Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Trends. Finally, students investigated the City of Eugene’s current and past municipal greenhouse gas reduction measures as well as climate protection strategies employed by other local governments. These findings are described in Part IV: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy Options. Part IV also provides an initial set of recommendations for how the City of Eugene can advance its climate protection efforts. The appendix provides additional background information as well as a document titled “Frequently Asked Questions About Global Warming and Abrupt Climate Change” intended for use by local officials. Climate Protection Action Plans There are two components of a climate protection action plan. The first is a mitigation strategy that describes how a community will reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Mitigation strategies are needed at the company/organization/household, local, state, federal, and international levels. The second component is an adaptation strategy aimed at proactively preparing the community to adjust to the consequences of climate change that are now inevitable. This project focused primarily on the first component—mitigation strategies. Due to the time available and the fact that most communities have focused on mitigation strategies and few adaptation strategies are currently available to use as models, the UO students did not investigate this issue. However, it may behoove local governments in Lane County to begin development of adaptation plans in the immediate future. 4 Figure 2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends and Forecasts in Oregon The earth has a built-in “greenhouse” processes. Greenhouse gases produced by natural processes trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and act as a blanket warming the planet. By increasing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are exacerbating the Earth's natural greenhouse effect. Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, over the past 50 years the average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history. The trend is accelerating: the three hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998 (Hansen 2005). According to NASA, 2004 was the fourth warmest year recorded since the 1800’s (Hansen 2005). The highest global average was measured in 1998, while 2002 and 2003 were the second and their warmest years. Although there have been previous periods of warming about 1,000 years ago, no peaks in the past 2,000 years matched recent warming patterns. Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities accumulate relatively rapidly but dissipate very slowly, causing them to remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. Researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado recently found that because greenhouse gasses dissipate slowly, even if carbon dioxide emissions could be immediately leveled or decreased, oceans will keep rising and global warming will continue for more than a century (NCAR, March 2005). A growing number of scientists now believe that, although historically major changes in climate systems evolved over hundreds and thousands of years, the possibility now exists that the buildup of greenhouse gases could push the global climate system over a threshold, triggering an abrupt change to a new climate equilibrium. Consequently, the term ‘abrupt climate change’ is now being used to describe the speed by which the changes appear to be occurring. (1.2) (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) Landfill Carbon Storage 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 Waste 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 Industrial Processes 71.8 65.9 57.0 51.9 48.5 CO2 From Fossil Fuel Combustion 72.1 66.1 57 51.9 48.4 Net CO2 73.3 67.1 57.9 52.6 49.2 Gross CO2 2025 2015 2000 1995 1990 Source: Oregon Department of Energy 5 Rising global temperatures corresponds strongly with the growth greenhouse gas emissions. Figure 3, developed by NCAR, describes the growth in temperatures and emissions. Figure 3: Growth in Worldwide Temperatures and GHG Emissions At the 2005 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Tim Barnett of Scripps Institution of Oceanography reported current research findings that provide comprehensive evidence of human induced warming of the world’s oceans (Barnett 2005). Using climate models, he showed that ocean temperatures increased as carbon dioxide emissions increased. The researcher said that the implications of this are vast and that even if changes in emissions are made immediately, water shortages, melting glaciers, and other crises will occur in the next twenty years throughout parts of the world. The study found that heat and energy levels as deep as nearly a half-mile in some oceans have risen dramatically over the past 40 years, in direct conjunction with rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Using new computer models and field tests, scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, CA say they have been able to “screen out the effects of naturally occurring phenomena such as historic weather patterns and solar and volcanic activity, which some skeptics have said are more to blame than greenhouse gas emissions for global warming.” The conclusion that climate change is occurring was reinforced locally in the Fall of 2004 when 49 scientists from throughout the Pacific Northwest signed a consensus document produced by Oregon State University Institute for Natural Resources entitled “Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest.” This document describes the following impacts of climate change witnessed in recent decades (OSU INR 2004): 6 ! Temperature: A warming trend of about 1°F has been recorded since the late 19th century. Warming has occurred in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and over the oceans. Confirmation of 20th-century global warming is further substantiated by melting glaciers, decreased snow cover in the northern hemisphere and even warming below ground. ! Precipitation: Since the beginning of the 20th century, average annual precipitation has increased across the Pacific Northwest by 10% with increases of 30-40% in eastern Washington and northern Idaho. ! Sea Level: Land on the central and northern Oregon coast (from Florence to Astoria) is being submerged by rising sea level at an average rate of 0.06 to 0.08 inches annually, as inferred from data for the period 1930-1995. ! Snowpack: Between 1950 and 2000, the April 1 snowpack declined. In the Cascades, the cumulative downward trend in snow-water equivalent is approximately 50 percent for the period 1950-1995. Timing of the peak snowpack has moved earlier in the year, increasing March streamflows and reducing June streamflows. Snowpack at low-to-mid elevations is the most sensitive to warming temperatures. The bottom-line of this information is that the climate is rapidly changing, the changes are affecting us today and are not something that will occur in the distant future, and that more dramatic variability in climate and resulting ecological, social and economic consequences can be expected. These and other issues will be discussed in more depth in Part II of this report. The Role of Local Government While action to address global warming and abrupt climate change is needed at the international and national levels, experience from around the world suggests that the ‘rubber hits the road” at the local and state levels. The mix of energy types, the efficiency by which energy is used in buildings and public buildings and infrastructure, the number of vehicle miles traveled and consequent quantity of fossil fuel used, and many other greenhouse gas-related issues are largely determined by and are best addressed at the local and state levels. Further, the consequences of climate change will primarily fall on local communities, such as intense storms, flooding, droughts, and wildfires. These impacts may affect existing business and job opportunities and pose problems that existing legal and regulatory systems are not equipped to address, insurance policies may not cover, and public infrastructure, emergency response, social service, and public health systems may not be able to manage. For example, more intense winter floods may damage stormwater collection systems. More intense summer droughts and wildfires and the growth of airborne diseases such as West Nile Virus may tax emergency response, health care, and social service systems. Although global warming and abrupt climate change is likely to generate significant alterations to local ecological processes, economies, and social wellbeing, public and private organizations that have adopted climate protection plans have found they can reduce costs for energy, water, and raw materials, increase efficiency and productivity, and generate whole new industries and thousands of new jobs in fields such as renewable energy and green building. Thus, in many ways climate protection plans can assist local governments to achieve their goals and meet the needs of their community’s. These issues are discussed in Part IV of this report. 9 Could Warming Be Beneficial? In the short term, climate change will likely produce winners and losers. Some regions of the country and some economic sectors may benefit by increased warming. However, there is no free lunch—as some regions or sectors benefit others are likely to be harmed. For example, warmer temperatures may, in the short term, benefit some Oregon residents who value a milder climate. At the same time, industries that cannot adapt rapidly to warmer weather or changes in “normal” precipitation patters, may suffer. For example, Northwest farmers that can quickly shift to crops adapted to earlier growing seasons and less precipitation may benefit. However, new entrants into already crowded agricultural markets could lead to oversupply and thus depressed prices. The long-term effects are even less certain. The climate is changing much faster than scientists first predicted—thus the term abrupt climate change-- and faster than evolution. Historically, climate change has occurred on Earth but most of the changes evolved slowly over hundreds or thousands of years, giving plant and animal species and humans ample time to adapt. By comparison, today's changes are occurring so rapidly that many ecological systems and species may struggle to adapt. This could mean that in the long run every region of the nation and every economic sector will experience significant challenges. Further, no one really knows the end result of climatic changes--all that is certain is that the “normal” stable climatic patterns of the past decades are likely a thing of the past. Greater variance and extremes may become the norm. This means the “benefits” produced in the short run may be dwarfed relatively rapidly by uncertain outcomes as greenhouse gas emissions continue to build up in the atmosphere and warming increases. No Matter What the Cause, Good Financial Planning and Public Policy Suggests It May Be Prudent To Plan Now for Change The broad scientific consensus that the Earth is warming suggests that at basic level it does not matter if human or natural processes are the cause. The fact is the climate is changing. This reality suggests that it may be prudent to plan now for the likely changes while a window of opportunity remains open. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and developing adaptation plans could be thought of as ways to “hedge our bets” against an uncertain future no matter what the causes of the warming may be. Research also shows they can provide significant benefits. As previously mentioned, a growing stream of research shows that many actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will help local governments avoid significant costs in the future and can also generate financial savings, increased efficiency, increased productivity, and generate new industries and jobs today. For example, many energy efficiency upgrades have a 1-3 year payback period that will only get better as energy costs rise. New business and job opportunities are emerging in industries such as renewable energy, green building, and sustainable agriculture. Almost as a side benefit, these businesses help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, local governments often find that climate protection plans help address many of their existing priorities and programs and can be beneficial to the community. These issues are discussed in more depth in Part IV. 10 Part II: Potential Local Ecological & Socioeconomic Consequences of Global Warming and Abrupt Climate Change Introduction In the fall of 2004, a group of 49 scientists from Oregon and Washington signed a statement produced by the Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University (OSU INR) entitled “Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest” (OSU INR 2004). The document states very clearly that global warming and abrupt climate change are underway and have effected the Pacific Northwest in recent decades in four broad areas: changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and snowpack. The document also stated that in the next 10 to 50 years, marine ecosystems and terrestrial ecosystems will likely be impacted. In this section, the six large-scale ecological consequences outlined in the OSU report are discussed. We have added a section on potential consequences for freshwater ecosystems to the section on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, research is summarized addressing potential ecological consequences specific to western Oregon and Lane County. Finally, the potential socio-economic consequences of the broad and area specific ecological changes are outlined. Note that the socio-economic research is fairly new and significant data gaps exist. Every effort was made to identify and summarize research relevant to Lane County and western Oregon. Also note that because ecological and economic systems are interdependent, similar consequences appear from different causes. Thus some issues are listed in multiple sections. Large Scale Ecological Impact 1: Temperature Increase Global and regional temperatures are projected to continue to rise during the 21st century. According to the most recent projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001), global average temperature is projected to increase 2.7° to 10.4°F (1.5 to 5.8°C) by 2100 compared to 1990 levels (UW Climate Impacts Group). The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change states that, “Scientists are very certain that the Pacific Northwest is warming. The SSGCRP Report indicates that the average annual temperature has increased 1-3o F (0.6-1.7o C) over most of the region in the last century. Model simulations suggest that the earlier warming was largely due to natural causes, whereas the most recent warming is best explained by human-caused changes in greenhouse gases. Since 1920, nearly every temperature monitoring station in the Pacific Northwest---both urban and rural—shows a warming trend.” (p. 4) The OSU scientific consensus statement goes on to say, “The USGCRP Pacific Northwest assessments predicts that there will be average warming over the region of approximately 2.7 o F (1.5o C) by 2030 and 5.4o F (3o C) by the 2050s. This change translates into a 0.18o to 0.9o F (0.1o -0.5o C) increase per decade. However, rate of increase may be even higher in the eastern portion of the region.” (p. 5) 11 A. Potential Specific Ecological Consequences Of Temperature Increase The NW scientific consensus statement of climate change lists the following likely impacts in the Pacific Northwest of the projected increase in temperatures: An increase in elevation of the upper tree line Longer growing seasons Increased length of fire season Earlier breeding by animals and plants Longer and more intense allergy season Possible changes in vegetation zones These issues are discussed in more detail in other sections of this document. B. Potential Socio-Economic Consequences of Temperature Increases B1. Increased Fire Risk for Timber Industry and the Urban-Wildland Interface Temperature increases associated with climate change will likely lead to earlier growing seasons and more extreme drying. These alterations will increase the length of the fire season leading to more frequent and larger forest fires. Intensified fire regimes will affect the forest products industry as well as those living in the urban-wildland interface. Most of today’s forest management practices were developed over a 30-40 year period in which climatic conditions were relatively stable. This stability led managers to believe that even-age management and fire prevention were effective forest management practices. However, studies now show that increasing temperature combined with other climate change related effects such as reduced precipitation and snowpack have created conditions of high variability that are likely to grow over the next century. This means that thinking and practices that may have made sense 5-10 years ago are no longer valid. Whole new approaches are needed that focus on managing forests for increased climatic and ecological variability and change. Leading forest scientists believe that a two-pronged approach is needed to reduce the risk of forest fires: 1) control forest density to protect against wild variations in precipitation and soil moisture as well as insect infestation; and 2) manage for genetic diversity within and among plant species in order to increase forest resilience to ecosystem disturbances such as fires, droughts, and insect infestation (personal communication with Ron Neilson, OSU, March 23, 2005). B2. Increased Risks to Human Health B2.1 Heat Stroke and Heat Islands Increased temperatures may lead to increased incidents of heat stroke in the Northwest. This may lead to more heat related deaths, increase the costs of health care, and cause energy costs to rise due to the need for increased cooling. According to The New England Journal of Medicine, in the 15 largest U.S. cities an average of 1,500 people collapse and die from heat stroke each year, a significant increase over the past decade. The annual death toll from heat stroke in U.S. cities is expected to rise to between 3,000 to 4,000 by 2020. 14 Large Scale Ecological Impact 2: Precipitation The ways in which precipitation may change as a result of global warming are much less certain than changes in temperature. More precipitation may result when and if La Nina events occur while less precipitation is likely to result if and when El Nino events occur. Therefore, changes in precipitation are likely to be driven by ocean conditions. The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change stated that: “Changes in precipitation regimes are generally acknowledged to be very uncertain in comparison with the temperature changes described above.” (p, 6) … “Recent IPCC global climate model scenarios have suggested the likelihood of modest increases in winter precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation for the Pacific Northwest…Some current research, however, suggests that these scenarios could be wrong for the Pacific Northwest because other factors may influence the outcome. For example, systematic changes in global sea surface temperature patterns, or in other fundamental drivers of global atmospheric circulation, could create systematic changes in storm-track behavior (Water Resources Breakout Group 2004). Based on this hypothesis, the Pacific Northwest could conceivably become drier, despite the intensification of the hydrological cycle on a global level.” (P 6) “The USGCRP Report indicated the Pacific Northwest climate is correlated with ocean- atmosphere events. “Warm years tend to be relatively dry with low streamflow and light snowpack, which lead to summer water shortages, less abundant salmon, and increased probability of forest fires. Conversely, cool years tend to be relatively wet with high streamflow and heavy snowpack. Scientists conclude with high certainty that variations in Pacific Northwest climate show clear correlations with the large-scale ocean- atmosphere patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on scales of a few years (interannual) (Abbott 2004).” However, Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) and other large-scale ocean atmosphere events are less clearly understood. What is known is that PDO and ENSO events will increase in frequency, intensity and duration. During El Nino events, if there is also a warm PDO phase, both ocean-atmosphere events will positively reinforce each other and lead to extreme weather like drought, forest fires, and dead-zone events. On the other hand, during La Nina cool years and PDO cool phases more extreme events like flooding are likely to occur. In this way, ocean- atmospheric events like PDO and ENSO events will likely determine how severe, and in what way climate change will be expressed in the Pacific Northwest. Also, higher air temperature will increase water temperature. CO2 is more soluble in cold water. Therefore, the oceans could become a source for further CO2 inputs (UW Climate Impacts Group). In short, “The warm phase (El Nino) causes drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The cool phase (La Nina) has opposite effects. Recent patterns have suggested a tendency toward more El Nino events and fewer La Nina events” (Wildlife Society 2004 p.2). Warmer temperatures will likely result in more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, particularly in mid-elevation basins where average winter temperatures are near freezing 15 (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). Oregon will remain as a wintertime-dominant precipitation regime (i.e. most precipitation will occur in the winter), with most precipitation occurring in the mountains (OSU INR p.1). Changes in cool-season (October-March) climate are likely to have the greatest effect on river flow and water resources in Oregon (OSU INR p.5). A. Potential Specific Ecological Consequences of Changes in Precipitation A1. Increased Drought and Flooding Increased frequency and intensity of drought is more likely during warm phases (El Nino) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). Flooding is less likely during warm phases (El Nino) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources) and intense flooding is more likely in mid-winter months in La Nina Events. Impacts on water resources due to low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow will likely include changes in our ability to manage flood damage (OSU INR p.1). This “…could result from increased unpredictability associated with extreme weather events and streamflow forecasting” (OSU INR p.6). Warmer temperatures and increased winter precipitation by the mid-21st century are expected to increase winter flood risks in transient (rain/snow mix) basins (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.2). “Moderate elevation basins may experience increased winter flooding due to warmer temperatures and possible increases in precipitation. In low elevation rain-dominant basins, climate change may increase winter flooding due to increased precipitation, and reduce late summer streamflow as a result of increased evaporation from warmer summer temperatures” (Connecting Climate and Society p.3). Changes in our ability to mitigate flood damage may warrant reconsideration of current management schemes for storage reservoirs and flood protection (OSU INR p.6). A2. Insufficient Storage Capacity in Reservoirs “Most Pacific Northwest watersheds are highly dependent on the accumulation of winter snowpack for meeting summer (April-September) water supply needs. Limited reservoir storage reduces the ability of watersheds to capture winter precipitation and spring runoff for use in the summer and early fall. While building more storage may be an option in some basins, many basins – including the Columbia River Basin – are essentially fully developed” (UW Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.2). “Changes in streamflow volume and timing present a significant challenge for PNW water management given the region’s limited reservoir storage capacity (typically only 10-30% of annual flow)” (Connecting Climate and Society p.3). A3. Changes in Fish Species and Composition and Aquatic Habitat In the atmospheric warming phase, warm phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is associated with reduced abundance of Coho and Chinook salmon (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). During the atmospheric cooling phase, cool phase PDO is linked to above average abundance of Coho and Chinook salmon. In recent years of cool phase PDO salmon returns have rebounded to levels not seen since the 1970s (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). Increased winter flooding and decreased summer and fall streamflows, and elevated warm season stream and estuary temperatures will likely degrade in-stream and estuarine salmon habitat (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). 16 B. Potential Socioeconomic Consequences of Precipitation Changes B1. Shift In Timing Of Hydropower Supply/Demand Impacts on water resources due to low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow will likely include shifts in hydropower production from summer to winter (OSU INR p.1-2). “Increased winter flows (if precipitation remains the same or increases in winter) that enhance hydropower production in winter months, and reductions in summer streamflow that diminish hydropower production in summer months, may challenge the current approach to hydropower production in the Columbia River” (OSU INR p.6). More water in the winter increases the potential for more hydropower production (Miles 2004). B2. Decreased Capacity For Hydroelectric Production The model that predicts a hotter dryer climate, which will result in decreased summer production and increased winter flows, challenge current approaches to hydropower production (OSU INR). This may likely result in frequent, long lasting and large failures of the power system to meet current levels of demand and decrease in the reliability of meeting energy production requirements. This conclusion is reinforced by a draft report on the potential impacts of climate change on Northwest hydropower production produced by staff at the Northwest Power Council (Fazio 2004). Overall, there will be lower river flows. Although there may be less demand for electricity in winter (due to warmer temperatures), this will be offset by increased demand in the summer. The relationship between temperature and electricity demand is clear, according to the Fazio report. Also, runoff volume makes a large difference in total annual generation for the Columbia River system. Energy losses will not be inexpensive, and will result in an estimated regional annual cost of $220 million in 2020 and $560 million by 2040. B3. Impacts On Electricity Infrastructure It is anticipated that more frequent, longer lasting and larger failures of the power system will result from the increased power needs in the summers and more intense storms that are predicted (Miles E, Henry B, and Simpson C, 1998). B4. Decreased Water Quality Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow will likely lead to decreased water quality due to higher temperatures, increased salinity and pollutant concentration (because water withdrawls decrease water quantity and concentrate pollutants in remaining water), lower dissolved oxygen content with increasing temperature, and increase certain pathogens that thrive at higher temperatures (OSU INR p.2 and 7). When increased winter flows exist: 1. Heavy rain events during the winter will likely increase runoff and result in more water-borne diseases such as giardia and cryptosporidia (EPA 1998. p. 1) 2. There are likely to be major health risks as a result of flooding. Heavy rainfalls can wash human and animals wastes into water sources, causing more bacterial, parasitic, and viral infections (Physicians for Social Responsibility and Oregon 2002, p.1). 19 However, researchers anticipate increased costs to the industries. Small businesses will probably be most affected by an increase in water costs as they have less revenue to make up for the increased costs. B8. Increased Physiological Stress And Reduced Productivity In Forests Even if La Nina events occur and total annual precipitation increases during some winters, any climatic changes (such as reduced summer precipitation or increased summer temperature) that result in a net increase in soil and plant moisture deficits are likely to result in increased physiological stress and reduced productivity in Northwest forests (UW CIG p.70). Increased occurrences and intensity of wildfires may also systematically alter the hydrologic response in river basins over time (OSU INR p. 7). B9. Reduction In Forested Area “One expected effect of current climate scenarios is for a significant reduction in forest area in both the moist western and arid eastern sides of the Cascade Range. These changes in forest areas are likely to be brought about by wildfires”…”There will be net increases in grasslands, shrublands, and savanna and very significant reductions in “snow zone” communities, such as mountain hemlock forest and alpine and subalpine meadows” (JISAO p.67). B10. Impaired Forest Regeneration “Impacts of climate change will be most apparent at forest interfaces and during seedling establishment. Seedlings are especially sensitive to temperature extremes and to drought; establishment success and growth rates may be lower for present-day species seedlings under future climate conditions. Projections for increased frequency of summer drought as a result of climate change could make forest regeneration more difficult during these times” (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p. 2-3). B11. High Forest Replanting Costs Projections for increased frequency of summer drought as a result of climate change could make forest regeneration more difficult during these times. If seedling and planting do not succeed, the costs of replanting and of foregone production could be significant” (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p. 2-3). 20 Large Scale Ecological Impact 3: Sea Level Rise Scientists believe that global warming is melting ice and glaciers causing warmer seawater to increase ocean levels. The OSU scientific consensus statement on global warming states: “During the period 1930-1995, land on the southern Oregon coast between Florence and Coos Bay has generally risen faster than worldwide changes in sea level by about 1mm per year (Abbott 2004). However, the same data, which are based on geodetic leveling and tide-gauge records, indicate that land on the central and northern coast of Oregon (from Florence to Astoria) is being submerged by rising sea level at a rate of 1.5-2 mm (0.06 – 0.08) inches per year. Current rates of sea-level rise are expected to increase as a result both of thermal expansion of the oceans and of partial melting of mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change states that, “Sea level is very certain to continue to rise. The impacts of sea-level rise, however, will vary because of differences in tectonic processes throughout the Pacific Northwest.” (OSU INR p. 7) Potential consequences of sea level rise include loss of coastal wetlands, barrier islands, and beach sand, and a greater risk of flooding and increased erosion along the Oregon coast. A. Potential Specific Ecological Consequences of Sea Level Rise A1. Increased Erosion and Landslides In some areas where tectonic processes exceed sea-level rise, land will rise faster than increased sea level. Where tectonic processes do not exceed sea-level rise, such as from Florence to Astoria, Oregon, the region’s shoreline will move landward. Maximum wave heights also will likely increase. This increase in wave height, in association with sea-level rise, has the potential to increase stream bank and ocean headwall erosion in coastal areas and also reduce or eliminate beach sand in some areas along the Oregon coast. The IPCC found that many coastal areas will experience increased levels of flooding, accelerated erosion and loss of coastal wetlands (IPCC 2001, p. 11). A2. Alterations to Estuaries Increases in sea level and decreases in freshwater river flows will affect estuaries through increased salinity and decreasing tidal marsh areas. Coastal estuaries are valued for their biodiversity, including shellfish communities and migrating birds (Report on climate change and Washington p. 2). Estuarial shore lands are generally used for agriculture, forestry, recreation, residential development and other uses. A3. Loss of Beach Sand One of the major consequences of rising sea levels in the Pacific Northwest will be loss of recreational beaches and sandy bluffs. Due to subduction of the Pacific Plate, many of the most popular beaches in the Northwest are relatively narrow, and backed by high cliffs. Some of these beaches are likely to be completely inundated within the next century; others will lose substantial 21 acreage. Loss of beach sand may be especially prevalent from just north of Florence to Astoria in Oregon where high cliffs exist close to the ocean. (Whitmore and Goodstein, 2004) B. Potential Socio-Economic Consequences Sea Level Rise B1. Impacts to Beaches and Coastal Tourism As ocean levels rise, many beach communities along the Pacific Coast may see reduced value of ocean front property as well as the dollars generated by tourism. The Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington found that as ocean levels rise, homes and communities built directly along the shoreline or low-lying inland areas may be inundated or see increased erosion. Susan Whitmore of Lewis and Clark College (2004) projected lost recreation value to Oregon residents for Oregon coastal beaches to be $39 million for 25% beach loss, $92 million for 50% beach loss, and $132 million for 75% beach loss. As sea levels increase, some beaches will be completely lost which will result in greater visitor density at other usable beaches (Whitmore 2004, p. 1-2). The Environmental Protection Agency (1998) estimates cumulative costs of sand replenishment along the Oregon Coast to be $60- $920 million resulting from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 (EPA 1997, report on climate change in Oregon and Washington, p. 2). The loss of vacation rental, second home, and beach recreation opportunities may decrease tourism revenue and cause coastal communities to suffer economically (JISAO, impacts of climate variability and change in the PNW. p. 2). With decreased tourism revenue, coastal towns’ economies may struggle. B2. Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Related Insurance Industries Sea level rise may have a number of negative impacts on energy, industry, and transportation infrastructure and consequently on the property insurance industry. Sea level rise, combined with increased frequency and intensity of rain events and subsequent erosion, may adversely affect coastal bridges, culverts, roads, and railroads as well as facilities such as wastewater treatment plants (JISAO, Impacts of climate variability and change in the PNW, p.2). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1997) predicted that as sea levels rise, coastal areas might be affected by shorter life spans for area roads and bridges. New construction projects may need to be undertaken to hold back the increased sea levels. Preventive maintenance and repairs would both involve large capital investment by taxpayers. UO research identified twelve coastal bridges and four box culverts along the coast in Lane County (Angermeyer). Two more inland bridges in Florence and Mapleton, respectively, go across the Siuslaw River. The Siuslaw River flows into the ocean and thus is affected by tides and is susceptible to sea level increases. Often bridges are not built with the intention of being permanent structures. They are, however, constructed with the intention of withstanding natural hazards. Engineers are currently focused on preparing bridges for potential seismic activity. For example, some coastal bridges are having zinc anodes placed around the iron rebar to discourage 24 Snowpack in the entire Pacific Northwest (extending into Canada) is expected to decline by 47% by 2090s (Miles 2004). Snowpack in western Oregon and Washington is expected to decline 72% by 2090s (Miles 2004). A. Potential Specific Ecological Impact of Changes In Snowpack A1. Changes In Forests Dependent On Snowpack The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change states that, “Temperature changes and loss of snowpack are expected to affect forests, particularly those in southwest, central, an eastern Oregon that rely on snowpack for water” (OSU INR p. 7). The UW Climate Impacts Group says that, “In areas of deep snow (the western slope of the Cascades Range, Olympic Mountains, and high elevations in the interior mountain ranges), a reduction in snowpack lengthens the growing season, giving tree seedlings a better chance at establishment” (JISAO p.67). “In dry areas (the eastern slopes of the Cascade Range, the Blue and Wallowa Mountains, and moderate elevations of the Rocky Mountains in Idaho and western Montana), soil moisture is a limiting factor and reductions in snowpack would reduce the amount of moisture available at the beginning of the growing season and increase the length of the late summer drought period; both conditions would make it more difficult for seedlings to establish themselves. The ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests east of the crest of the Cascade Range are probably more vulnerable to these changes in climate simply because the climate there is so dry. Further increases in evapotranspiration will probably have a bigger impact there than in the wetter forests west of the crest of the Cascade Range” (JISAO p.67). “In high elevation snowmelt-dominant basins and moderate elevation “transient snow” basins (i.e. basins near the current snow line in winter), warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent of snow cover and the quantity of water stored as snowpack as more winter precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow” (Connecting Climate and Society p.3). A2. Earlier Peak Snowpack “The April 1 snowpack will continue to decline corresponding to an earlier peak streamflow” (OSU INR p.2). “Simulations of snow-water equivalent from 1916-1997 show that the timing of peak snow accumulation and 90% snowmelt have both moved toward earlier calendar dates across the West” (OSU INR p.4). The date of peak snowpack in the Cascades has shifted by as much as 40 days earlier in the year (OSU Institute for Natural Resources p.5). A3. Reduce Summer Flows “The timing of the peak snowpack has moved earlier in the year, increasing March streamflows and reducing June streamflows” (OSU INR p.1). A shift in the precipitation type from snow to rain, combined with a loss of snowpack, will contribute to higher winter stormflow, reduced spring/summer streamflows, and a shift in the timing of peak spring runoff earlier into the spring (Connecting Climate and Society p.3). 25 B. Potential Socio-Economic Consequences Changes in Snowpack B1. Less Water Availability for Municipal Use Urban water supply systems that rely at least partially on storage of water in mountain snowpack will see diminished inflow to their reservoirs in late spring/early summer (Climate Impacts Group, Water Resources). B2. Less and More Costly Water for Agriculture This issue is discussed in the section on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. B3. Increased Frequency and Intensity of Forest Fires This issue is discussion in the sections on precipitation and terrestrial ecosystems. 26 Large Scale Ecological Impact 5: Marine Ecosystems Oceans are thought to be good indicators of global warming because they have higher heat capacity than land and the earth’s atmosphere. They also cover more of the earth’s surface. Research indicates that global warming is increasing the temperature of the world’s oceans. Scientists at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography released research in February 2005 that they claim definitively shows that heat and energy levels as deep as nearly a mile in some oceans have risen dramatically over the past 40 years in direct conjunction with rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses. Increased temperatures alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems. The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change states that: “It is very certain that ocean conditions will continue to change in response to ocean- atmospheric processes occurring at the scale of years to decades. These changes in ocean circulation include the intensity and character of upwelling and winds, as well as changes in freshwater input (Water Resources Breakout Group 2004). While the patterns of these variations and their impacts on marine ecosystems (e.g. persistent changes in ecosystem structure, directional changes in productivity, etc) are unknown, paleological records and quantified physical dynamics help to shed light on potential projections. Paleo-records suggest that over long time scales, warm regimes are associated with strong upwelling. It also is know that a warmer continent results in stronger equator-ward winds that fuel upwelling. In combination, these two trends suggest a likely increase in the magnitude and duration of upwelling along the Pacific Northwest coast (Water Resources Breakout Group 2004). “The emergence of a mass of hypoxic (low oxygen) water (a so-called ‘dead zone’) appearing off the central coast of Oregon in 2002 and 2004 may signal an unanticipated consequence of climate change mediated through changes in ocean circulation.” Increase in upwelling along the Pacific Northwest coast and the occurrences of low-oxygen (“dead Zone”) events are likely to increase as alteration of wind patterns and sea surface temperatures causing colder, nutrient rich water to upwell along the cost. These upwelling waters are nutrient rich, creating algal blooms, which in turn use up dissolved oxygen. Massive fish and invertebrate die-offs may follow. The frequency, intensity, and duration of such events is likely to increase as a result of climate change (Climate Impacts Group; Palmer 2004). A. Potential Specific Ecological Consequences of Changes in Marine Ecosystems The OSU scientific consensus statement on climate change states that the consequences of global warming on marine ecosystems in the region indicates potential for: 29 A2. Increased Stress from Drought “Due to current biomass densities, the anticipated drier summers will likely increase drought stress and vulnerability of forests to insects, disease and fire” (OSU INR p.2). “Impacts of climate change will be most apparent at forest interfaces and during seedling establishment. Seedlings are especially sensitive to temperature extremes and to drought; establishment success and growth rates may be lower for present-day species seedlings under future climate conditions. Projections for increased frequency of summer drought as a result of climate change could make forest regeneration more difficult during these times. If seedling and planting do not succeed, the costs of replanting and of foregone production could be significant” (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p. 2-3). Decreased water during growing season will affect sensitive species ability to bud in spring and seed reproduction in summer and fall resulting in decreased NPP, decreased reproduction, and decreased range (Alig 2004). The net result of this drought stress will favor tree species that have higher water use efficiencies (EPA Report 1998). A3. Longer Fire Season And Increased Susceptibility To Fire “Changes in fire frequency over the next century in forests west of the Cascades is less clear given that historic fire return intervals are greater than a century, although increased fire frequency in these forests could have significant ecological impacts” (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.4). A longer fire season and greater likelihood of fires will result in forests east of the Cascades (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.4). Widespread fires may systematically alter the hydrologic response in river basins over time (OSU INR p. 7). Changes in the frequency and/or severity of fires are expected to have the largest effect on PNW forests (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.4). Warmer summers, leading to increased evapotranspirtation, are likely to overwhelm any benefits of increased CO2 fertilization. One expected effect of current climate scenarios is for a significant reduction in forest area in both the moist western and arid eastern sides of the Cascade Range. These changes in forest areas are likely to be brought about by wildfires” (JISAO p.67). Forest fires will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, decreasing forest productivity and resulting in more C being lost to the atmosphere further aggravating climate change (Bachelet 2004). There is a possible connection between forest fires, stratospheric chemistry, and ocean events like El Nino and PDO’s (Bachelet personal communication February 2005). Drought and fire tolerant species will replace other less tolerant species over time in the Northwest. These new species in turn will reinforce fire and drought disturbance regimes. (Bachelet et al 2004). Alteration of forest structure following species replacement, fuel accumulation, fuel wetness, and height of new species/undergrowth will alter intensity of fire disturbance, influencing crown or surface burn (Dale 2001). Snags, downed coarse woody debris, and other legacies of climate change resulting in dieback will increase the likelihood and intensity of disturbance (Bachelet et al 2001). Temperature will increase fire season length, drought or decreased water will increase likelihood, increased WUE by trees increases fuel dryness. Fire disturbance will result in seed bank changes, CO2 loss, aggravating climate change, potential OM and nutrient loss, and decreased moisture due to decreased evapotranspiration and cloud cover, and run-off. This in turn will favor plants with a high WUE and NUE, serotinous cones or other fire adaptations, and reinforce species replacement and disturbance regime (Flannigan et al 2000). 30 A4. Changes In Ecological Succession “High-intensity disturbances reset forests to the establishment stage, which is the stage most sensitive to adverse environmental conditions, such as drought and heat.”…“Changes in the frequency and intensity of disturbances will affect ecological succession, particularly if summers become both warmer and drier. For example, increased disturbance in Pacific silver fir forest combined with warmer, drier summers that may limit the re-establishment of silver fir, may result in transition to Douglas fir-dominated forests at middle elevations” (JISAO p.64). Likely impacts of fire include shifts in species composition and timing of the growing season, but the details are unpredictable (OSU INR p. 7). Plant communities will undergo individualistic shifts in their species composition, rather than in their collections of associated species, and/or experience changes in densities (Climate Impacts Group, Forests). Extinction of local species is expected (Climate Impacts Group, Forests). Species with poor dispersal ability may have difficulty in shifting their spatial distributions (Climate Impacts Group, Forests). A5. Changes In Forest Disturbance Climate change will alter the frequency, type, size, intensity, timing, seasonality and duration of disturbance. Seven primary types of disturbance affect NW forests: Fire, drought, introduced species, insect outbreak, pathogen outbreak, hurricanes, and windstorms (Dale et al 2000; Dale et al 2001). Species replacement and regeneration will be greatest following disturbance. Introduced species, insects, and pathogens will increase as they out compete native plants for nutrients or water; have a longer breeding period; or are otherwise reproductively favored by climate change. Disturbance will therefore accelerate changes in composition resulting from climate change both directly—species replacement—and indirectly—by favoring more grasses or southerly, more fit species (Dale et al 2000; Dale et al 2001). Climate change, disturbance, and forest productivity affect and are effected by one another. Many climate change models do not incorporate disturbance into their predictions and as such make erroneous predictions. As forests are stressed through nutrient availability, water availability, temperature, competition, etc resulting from climate impacts, there susceptibility to disease, insects, and introduced species increases. This alone would decrease any potential gains in NPP, growth rates, or potential harvests resulting from serendipitous secondary affects of climate change. More importantly however, fire and drought will increase as disturbance regimes, not only affecting the forest, but also regional climate as well, in such a way so as to aggravate climate change, increase disturbance, and decrease forest health and development. (Dale 2000; Dale 2001; Bachelet 2001 Flanningan et al 2000) A6. Alteration of Adiabatic Cooling Changes in forest cover to grassland as well as changes in snowpack and hydrology will affect adiabatic cooling by changing latent and sensible heat loss from the system. A critical outcome of global warming, adiabatic cooling or heat loss is equal to the net heat trapped by atmospheric gases. Latent heat is responsible for cloud formation and precipitation and will have significant local effect. This will further increase water loss from the system, especially notable in an area like central Oregon, where current predictions suggest drier conditions based on temperature changes and reduced snowpack/streamflow. Sensible heat will also increase locally, and this 31 could in turn raise temperature, especially in the more closed Willamette Valley bordered as it is by the Coast and Cascade ranges. (Marland et al 2003; Massera et al 2000) A7. Changes in Organic Matter and Nutrient Cycles Increased temperature will result in an increase in microbial activity resulting in greater CO2, N, P, and K fluxes from the system. This will favor trees and plants that have a higher NUE (Shlesinger 1997, Andrews et al 1996). Any potential increase in microbial activity resulting from a temperature increase will be diminished by water availability. Decreased water will result in decreased activity (Bachelet et al 2004). Micobial activity is the key interface between forests and climate, alteration in their function will have significant impact on forest regeneration, productivity, and distribution (Hansen et al 2001). A8. Invasion Of Trees Into Subalpine Meadows “At upper treeline, tree ring analyses of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) demonstrate tree growth responses to climatic variations. Decade-to-decade variations show a good correlation with the PDO. Also at upper timberline, significant tree invasion of subalpine meadows is associated with light snowpacks and long growing seasons” (JISAO p.63). A9. Loss of Biological Diversity “Loss of biological diversity is likely if environmental shifts outpace species migration rates and interact with population dynamics to cause increased rates of local population extinction” (Climate Impacts Group, Forests). Increased temperature and changes in precipitation will alter migration of animals, hibernation, and male-female ratio (in some populations) and as a secondary result, the ability of tree species to migrate northward because of decreased seed dispersal, thereby slowing northward movement of southerly species. (Schlesinger 1997) A10. Little Projected Change At Middle Elevations “At middle elevations in the interior Northwest, and in the western hemlock and Pacific silver fir zones west of the Cascade crest, the structure and composition of most mature forest stands have little measurable sensitivity to climate variations. Forest stands have the ability to buffer themselves against variations in climatic conditions” (JISAO p.63). A11. Impacts on Salmon “Climate variability plays a large role in driving fluctuations in salmon abundance by influencing their physical environment, the availability of food, the competitors for that food, and the predators that prey on small salmon. The complexity of influences on salmon, both climate and otherwise, combined with the scarcity of factors important to salmon in estuaries and the ocean, make it challenging to identify the links between salmon and climate” (Climate Impacts Group, Salmon). “Salmon are the most vulnerable to climate variations at the migrating smolt stage,” but what applied to one salmon run, or even one salmon species, may not apply to all (JISAO p.54). “The most important factors for juvenile coho freshwater survival are (1) the instream temperature during the first summer, combined with the availability of deep pools to mitigate high temperatures; and (2) temperature during the second winter, combined with the availability of beaver ponds and backwater pools to serve as refuges from cold and high stream flow events. Consequently, increases in summer water temperature will affect coho most if they occur in combination with decreases in summer stream flow…” (JISAO p.57). 34 B2. Structural Adjustments in the Forest Products Industry In addition to changing the type of trees planted and levels and timing of harvests, forest products firms and private landowners may either shift their capital to regions with economic advantages in timber growth (e.g. move north or to moister areas), or change land-use to maximize profit from forest to agriculture, urban development or other uses depending on market reaction (Irland et al 2001). Land-use changes will result in localized changes in precipitation or temperature following changes to latent and sensible heat (Marland 2003). Climate change will affect the condition, composition and productivity of forest. These biological changes are likely to set in motion regional changes in supply of wood to sawmills and paper mills, in turn producing effects on market prices. Already stressed markets may lose key competitive advantages, which, in conjunction with supply changes, affect market prices (Irland 2001). Current economic-ecological predicting increases in forest productivity do not take into consideration disturbance, or other ecological forces that result in erroneous predictions of increased forest productivity (Dale 2001). Population and demand, resource conditions, product markets, international trade, and the balance between consumer-producer welfare will ultimately determine market response (Irland 2001). It will be the collective market impact of the balance between consumer savings and producers profits following alteration of forest NPP that will determine whether a region maintains an economic competitive advantage, and if the wood products industry is positively or negatively affected (Irland 2001; Swanson 1996 PNW-GTR- 361). Increasing yields may benefit consumers and negatively affect producers. Decreasing yields may negatively affect consumers but benefit producers. These patterns will be determined as the market expresses itself through pricing fluctuations depending on decreased or increased inventories. (EPA 1998, Irland 2001) It must be noted that the models used to predict changes in forest condition are limited. Productivity will increase or decrease depending on forest area and condition, this in turn will increase or decrease prices, alter consumer-producer patterns, market behavior, and regional competitive advantage. This in turn will ultimately determine how timber growing and wood production respond to climate change (Irland 2001). There are a variety of ecological-economic models that attempt to predict the affect of climate change on the wood products industry. Economic models do not consider disturbance as an influence of forest response to climate change (Dale 2001). Ecologic models in turn do not incorporate market influences, or direct manufacturer adjustment in their prediction of forest change (Bachelet 2000). These models all suggest that climate change will affect timber production and markets; but how and to what degree is a result of forest productivity, forest area, condition, inventories, timber prices, competition, and market welfare. None of the current models take into consideration all of the feedbacks between these variables into their projections. Therefore further research is needed into the socioeconomic affects of climate change on the wood products industry (Irland 2001; Bachelet 2000). B3. Consequences for Recreation and Tourism Changes to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems will likely lead to negative consequences for tourism and recreation in Lane County. U.S. EPA says that conflicts are destined to arise in relation to water use for recreation due to climate change (Environmental Protection Agency, Report on Climate Change in Oregon, September, 1998). Freshwater streamflows will drop 35 earlier in the year causing increased demands on available water especially later in the summer season, thus reducing fishing and boating opportunities. Temperature rise combined with unreliable at best water conditions will create a damaging (possibly lethal) situation for fish populations (including salmon) (OSU INR, p. 5-6). The increased likelihood and magnitude of forest fires will set large forest areas off limits to recreation and tourism and make others, including possibly Eugene-Springfield and other urban areas, less desirable due to smoke incursion. Increased temperatures may also make Lane County less desirable as a tourism destination compared to cooler areas to the north. Tourism is an integral component of Lane County’s economy. The diversity of the county’s landscape, from the ocean beaches to the Cascade Mountains and multitude of rivers, streams, campgrounds, and hiking trails within a relatively small geographic region allows tourists to experience a wide array of activities. Visitor spending has a profound impact on the economy. According to Dean Runyan and Associates, visitors to Lane County spent $473 million in 2003, generating 7,700 jobs with earnings of $129 million and $18 million in state and local taxes. A weakened economy in 2003 failed to promote the pattern of tourism growth that Lane County has enjoyed for the last twelve years (Dean Runyan Associates, 2005, p. 3). According to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife there were 71,677 hunting and fishing licenses sold totaling $1,555,404.00 sold in Lane County 2003. This does not include funds spent in Lane County for hunting and fishing licenses sold out-of-county (E-mail from Harry Upton, February 7, 2005). In 2003, $61 millions was spent at campgrounds, $189 million at hotels, motels and B&B’s, $59 million on private homes, $9 million on rental homes, and $148 million on day travel (Lane County Travel Impacts Statement, 2004). East Lane County accounted for $361.7 million of tourism related spending and generated $96.6 million in direct earnings, while employing 5,690 people (Dean Runyan Associates 2005, p. 8). West Lane County created $111 million in spending, with $32.4 million in direct earnings as it employed 1,960 people (Dean Runyan Associates, 2005, p. 9). Florence, the largest city in the coastal region, generates an estimated $140 for per tourist per day (Capen 2005). B3. Consequences for Agriculture Agriculture is also an important part of the economy in Lane County. At the state level, $3.7 billion dollars is generated annually by farming and ranching. Agricultural products account for $1.1 billion of total state exports or 12.4 % of all exports, leaving $2.6 billion in internal sales (Oregon Blue Book 2004). These numbers are not available at a county level (Rooney, personal communication; Mecham, personal communication). Much like forests, the direct effect of climate change on agriculture is still open for debate among researchers. Unlike forests, however, farmers have a much greater degree of plant choice, faster response time (single season vs. 30 year rotations), and access to water and inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides. Because of the greater degree of control, it is thought that farmers and agriculture will be able to adapt more quickly to climate change (US Global Climate Change Research Program). While the direct impacts are uncertain, it is likely that climate change will lead to substantial changes in the local agricultural economy. For example, a 1998 EPA report concludes that important Oregon crops like wheat will increase in yield, whereas hay and potato will decrease in yields. 36 The key determinant of the consequences of climate change for agriculture is drought tolerance (McCarl et al 2001). Each crop may respond differently to changes in climate and atmospheric composition. Most crops are expected to grow better provided enough water is available, and other non-climatic conditions do not change (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.5). However, decreases in summer rain will increase water stress on plants. Not only will plants be more stressed, but the ability to irrigate will also be reduced because of decreased snowpack and streamflows (IPCC 2000). Plants will need more water, but there will be less water available for irrigation in the summer and fall while evaporative demand during the growing season is likely to increase (Climate Impacts Group 2004 p.5). In addition, as water supply decreases demand from urban areas is likely to intensify competition for available supplies, thus increasing the costs of water. In addition, disease, pests, and weedy plants are all likely to increase due to climate change (IPCC 2000; Pimmentel 1993). This leads some researchers to predict that increased fertilizer, herbicide and pesticide use, as well as increasingly needed but costly irrigation water, will lead to decreased plant growth and agricultural output (US Global Climate Change Research Program). Lane County is expected to experience negative consequences, but they are likely to be less dramatic than more southerly states like California, where increases in water demand, and decreased supply will tax an already stressed agricultural irrigation system. What is clear is that reductions in yields, even on a small scale, would have a costly impact on local food-production and exports. The sum interaction of temperature change, CO2 increases, decreased soil moisture, increased disease, weeds, and insects are likely to reduce agricultural yields. Some researchers have suggested that agricultural yields will decrease by up to 27% (US Global Climate Change Research Program; Pimmentel 1993). 39 The model we used employs the inputs outlined in the Data Sources section above and emissions factors or “coefficients” to calculate total CO2 equivalent. A different coefficient has been calculated for electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, steam, gasoline, diesel, biodiesel, methane, and waste composition. The first step is to convert all sources of energy into MMBTUs (One Million British Thermal Units---see List of Acronyms below). Waste is kept in tons. # Electricity: kWh x 0.003412 = MMBTU # Natural Gas: therms x 0.1 = MMBTU # Fuel Oil: gallons x 0.147 = MMBTU # Steam: klbs x 1.0 = MMBTU # Gasoline: gallons x 0.125 = MMBTU # Diesel: gallons x 0.139 = MMBTU # Biodiesel B20: gallons x 0.139 = MMBTU # Methane: therms x 0.1 = MMBTU # Municipal Solid Waste: Tons The second step, after all energy units are converted to MMBTUs, is to multiply a CO2 emissions coefficient by MMBTUs to calculate total metric tons CO2. For waste, a CO2 emissions coefficient is multiplied by metric tons to calculate the total metric tons CO2 emissions equivalent. There is a different coefficient for each type of waste. The coefficient for electricity varies depending on the year and subsequent power generation mix (see EWEB Coefficient Analysis section below). # Natural Gas: MMBTU x 0.053 = Metric tons CO2 # Steam: MMBTU x 0.053 = Metric tons CO2 (uses the natural gas coefficient, because natural gas is used to produce the steam) # Fuel Oil: MMBTU x 0.079 = Metric tons CO2 # Gasoline: MMBTU x 0.071 = Metric tons CO2 # Diesel: MMBTU x 0.073 = Metric tons CO2 # Biodiesel B20: MMBTU x 0.057 = Metric tons CO2 (calculated as 80% of the Diesel coefficient to reflect 20% of B20 as producing zero emissions) # Methane (Combusted): MMBTU x 0.052 = Metric tons CO2 # Methane (Flare Gas): MMBTU x 0.055 = Metric tons CO2 # Municipal Solid Waste (paper and paper products): Tons x 1.210 = Tons CO2e # Municipal Solid Waste (food waste): Tons x 1.130 = Metric tons CO2e # Municipal Solid Waste (plant debris): Tons x (- 0.161) = Metric tons CO2e # Municipal Solid Waste (wood, furniture, textiles): Tons x (- 0.242) = Metric tons CO2e # Municipal Solid Waste (all other waste): Tons x 0.0 = Metric tons CO2e Unless otherwise noted, the fuel coefficients were obtained from the Department of Energy, Form EIA-1605 Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases, Instructions, 2001. The municipal solid waste coefficients were provided by Fort Collins, CO, as developed by the CCP Greenhouse Gas Emissions Software (CCP Software 2004; Fort Collins 2003). 40 EWEB Coefficient Analysis There is no standard electricity coefficient as the coefficient depends on the mix of energy sources used to generate the electricity. A coefficient was thus calculated for the Eugene Water & Electric Board (EWEB) based on EWEB’s mix of electricity generation. EWEB’s coefficients were provided by EWEB’s Energy Resources Department for the year’s 1994 to 2000. An average for these years was calculated and used for 2001 through 2004. EWEB Coefficients*: 1994: 0.091 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 1995: 0.070 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 1996: 0.057 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 1997: 0.059 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 1998: 0.066 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 1999: 0.064 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 2000: 0.068 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 2001: 0.068 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 2002: 0.068 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 2003: 0.068 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU 2004: 0.068 metric tons CO2 / MMBTU * EWEB’s electricity coefficients are based on between 50-60% of electricity coming from hydropower, which is assumed to produce zero CO2. However, as stated elsewhere, recent studies (Gaffin 2005; Graham-Rowe 2005; IPCC 2005) suggest that hydropower may not be CO2 neutral and therefore, despite the belief held by many that the Pacific Northwest generates less CO2 because of its use of hydropower, EWEB’s CO2 coefficient could be much higher than currently calculated. List of Acronyms CH4 – methane CNG – compressed natural gas CO2 – carbon dioxide CO2e – carbon dioxide equivalent (methane & other gases are converted to CO2e based on GWP) F – degrees Fahrenheit Gal - gallon GGE – gallon of gas equivalent GHG – greenhouse gas GWP – Global Warming Potential HFC – hydrofluorocarbons Klbs – thousand pounds kWh – kilowatt hour LED – light emitting diode MMBTU – One Million British Thermal Units MSW – municipal solid waste PFC – perfluorocarbons SF6 – suflurhexafluoride Therms – 100,000 BTU (British Thermal Units) VMT – vehicle miles traveled 41 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Trends Figure 5 shows the City of Eugene’s internal operations greenhouse gas emissions trends for 1994-2004 in total metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Figure 5 shows a slight fluctuating trend in total metric tons CO2e between 1994 and 2004. Between 1994 and 1997, emissions drop by about 3,000 metric tons CO2e. Between 1997 and 2000, emissions increase by about 2,000 metric tons CO2e. Between 2000 and 2002, emissions again decrease by about 1,000 metric tons CO2e. Between 2002 and 2003, emissions increased by approximately 800 metric tons CO2e. Between 2003 and 2004, emissions again decreased by approximately 500 metric tons CO2e. Overall, between 1994 and 2004, emissions have decreased by 1,642 metric tons CO2e (- 7.5%). The variability in emissions from year to year is primarily due to differences in wastewater treatment emissions, which are primarily from methane recovery. The larger the amount of methane generated, the larger the emissions. This accounts for the large drop in emissions between 1996 and 1997, when wastewater emissions dropped from 9783 to 7578 metric tons CO2e. The upward trend from 1997 to 1999 was due primarily to an increase in wastewater treatment emissions also. The slight increase from 1999 to 2000, however, was due to an increase in fleet emissions, when emissions increased from 2874 to 3565 metric tons CO2e due to an increase in the number of gallons of both gasoline and diesel. The decrease in emissions between 2000 and 2002 were due to overall decreases from most all sources (buildings, wastewater, fleets, and waste). The increase from 2002 to 2003 was due to increases in emissions from all sources except waste, which was assumed to have stayed the same. The decrease in emissions from 2003 to 2004 was due to both decreases in building emissions (from 7372 to 6870 metric tons CO2e) and fleet emissions (from 3560 to 3227 metric tons CO2e). Emissions reductions between 2003 and 2004 for the building and fleet sources could be attributed to actions the City has taken to increase energy efficiency. See Part IV, the section titled City of Eugene Internal Operations Programs with Potential GHG Emissions Impact, for more information. Figure 5. Eugene Internal Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends (1994-2004) 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 Year M et ric T on s of C O 2e 44 Figure 8. Eugene Internal Operations Building Square Footage (1994-2004) 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 2,200,000 2,300,000 2,400,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Sq ua re F ee t Figure 9. Eugene Internal Operations (City) Employment (1994-2004) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Nu m be r o f M un ic ip al Em pl oy ee s 45 Figure 10. Eugene Average Annual Temperature (F) (1997-2004) 53.653.852.6 5251.752 53.353 30 35 40 45 50 55 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Av er ag e An nu al T em pe ra tu re (F ) Figure 11. Eugene City Population (2000-2003) 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year To ta l P op ul at io n Cost data was available for energy sources for all sources of emissions and municipal solid waste, except for methane recovery sources. See Table 3. Figure 12 shows the total cost of energy and municipal waste disposal for the years 1994 to 2004. The trend in Figure 12 is somewhat similar to the greenhouse gas emissions trend shown in Figure 5, but the total cost does not always correlate with the total metric tons CO2e produced. This could be due to differences in the cost of energy sources from one year to another. Also, data was not provided for the cost of burning or flaring methane at the wastewater treatment plant. This is important because this represents 25% of all greenhouse gas emissions for the City of Eugene’s internal operations. If wastewater treatment cost was represented, then Figure 12 would probably more closely correlate with Figure 5. 46 Table 3. Eugene Internal Cost of Energy and Municipal Waste Disposal Data by Source 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Buildings 1,113,138 1,117,422 1,157,238 1,205,656 1,131,877 1,228,377 1,218,847 1,314,476 1,617,081 1,599,422 1,695,177 Electricity (kWh) 764,797 776,785 780,469 825,019 758,902 794,307 778,755 757,339 1,055,974 1,088,793 1,160,426 Natural Gas (therms) 177,400 161,208 156,859 145,085 184,449 211,618 230,387 331,729 339,628 329,210 336,748 Fuel Oil (gals) 1,359 937 986 692 460 101 - - - - - Steam (klbs) 169,582 178,492 218,924 234,860 188,066 222,351 209,705 225,408 221,479 181,419 198,003 Lighting 12,843 13,371 13,901 13,713 13,272 13,611 16,439 19,078 25,930 27,938 31,529 Park Lighting (kwh) 12,843 13,371 13,901 13,713 13,272 13,611 16,439 19,078 25,930 27,938 31,529 Fleets 272,723 280,915 347,774 347,774 316,231 248,744 354,820 386,159 361,646 436,217 535,095 Unleaded gasoline (gal) 169,940 175,045 216,706 216,706 197,051 154,998 221,097 240,625 225,350 271,817 333,430 Diesel (gal) 102,783 105,870 131,068 131,068 119,180 93,746 133,723 145,534 136,296 164,400 BioDiesel (gal) - - - - - - - - - - 201,665 Wastewater Treatment 208,813 399,358 444,897 390,995 348,644 358,541 329,490 339,238 334,132 603,375 618,166 Electricity (kWh) 208,813 399,358 444,897 390,995 348,644 358,541 327,459 328,851 323,416 592,592 605,825 Natural Gas (ccf) - - - - - - 2,031 10,387 10,716 10,783 12,341 Municipal Solid Waste 91,776 91,776 91,776 91,776 91,776 91,776 91,776 91,776 97,083 97,083 97,083 TOTAL COST 586,155$ 785,420$ 898,348$ 844,258$ 769,923$ 712,672$ 792,525$ 836,251$ 818,791$ 1,164,613$ 1,281,873$ Figure 12. Eugene Internal Operations Total Cost of Energy and Municipal Waste Disposal (1994-2004) $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year D ol la rs ($ ) 49 Further Analysis to Be Completed Lighting and Employee Commuting Data At the time of this report, street lighting, traffic signal, and employee commuting data was not available from the City of Eugene. This data may moderately increase the City’s total metric tons CO2e emissions. Sequestration Efforts The City of Eugene has sequestration programs in place including a wetland mitigation bank, increased vegetation along waterways, a street tree program to increase the number of trees within the Eugene City limits, and parks and open space improvements. These efforts could be considered as sequestration sinks for CO2 and could be “subtracted” from Eugene’s total calculated metric tons CO2 emissions. Quantification of these efforts has not yet been completed, but could be a useful exercise in the future. Community-Wide Baseline Emissions Assessment A greenhouse gas emissions assessment has not yet been completed for the community of Eugene as a whole including total emissions from the commercial, industrial, and residential sectors, as well as the University of Oregon, City of Springfield (internal government operations and community-wide) and Lane County (internal government operations and county-wide). These assessments are planned to be completed by the end of 2005, assuming data can be obtained. 50 PART IV: GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS Introduction After baseline emissions are calculated, the third step in developing a climate protection plan is to determine potential greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options. Five areas are commonly examined: transportation, energy efficiency, renewable energy, waste reduction and recycling, and forest and carbon sequestration. As previously mentioned, research shows that many of these options can lead to cost savings, increased efficiency and productivity, and business and job retention and expansion. Thus, many climate protection options can help local governments provide services and meet their priorities in a manner that, almost as a side benefit, reduces greenhouse gas emissions. The first section below describes some of the programs the City of Eugene has already implemented to reduce emissions. The next section offers preliminary recommendations for how the City of Eugene can enhance its current efforts. The third section offers insights into how climate protection options can link with and help the City of Eugene’s meet its current priorities. The fourth section offers examples of greenhouse gas reduction strategies implemented within other U.S. communities. The last section offers examples from leading private companies. City of Eugene Internal Operational Programs with Potential GHG Emissions Impact Since 1992, the City of Eugene reported numerous internal actions that have reduced GHG emissions, such as energy efficiency and energy use reduction programs, CO2 sequestration programs, and solid waste reduction and recycling programs. As provided by city staff to us, the following is an outline of these programs (City of Eugene 2005). Specific energy efficiency and use reduction programs can be found in Appendix D. Energy efficiency efforts include upgrading lighting systems, HVAC systems, and motors, and installing exterior insulation, replacing windows, and providing low wattage space heaters. Energy Efficiency and Use Reduction Programs Energy Efficiency Program Ongoing in City buildings since 1994 Numerous large projects came on-line 2000-2001 Overall energy savings of over 20% based on 1995 usage Biodiesel B20 used in all diesel City vehicles since Aug 2003. Hybrid Vehicles First hybrid vehicles purchased in 2001, when first available. 15 hybrid vehicles are now in the fleet. Wastewater Treatment Plant Methane recovery and electricity generation ongoing since 1992 Output of methane recovery generators was doubled in 1999 51 Major efficiency improvements made to equipment in 96-97 and 02-03. In 2006, the addition of a catalytic converter is planned for the methane fired engine. CO2 Sequestration Programs Wetland Mitigation Bank In place since 1993, 3000 acres banked, approx. 900 acres restored. Open Waterways Program improvements Change in management of waterways has resulted in increased vegetation. Street Tree Program (Neighborhoods) In place since 1992, 7000 trees planted in Eugene City limits. Parks and Open Space improvements Ongoing since passage of funding in 1999 Solid Waste Reduction and Recycling Programs Green Team Paper use reduction effort began in 2004 Recycling Program Solid waste recycling increased in 2004 due to commingled collection City of Eugene Internal Government Emissions Reduced or Averted Data for quantifying emissions reductions or emissions averted was available, in part, for two sources of emissions, fleets and wastewater treatment. Table 5 describes these trends. As previously discussed, the City of Eugene began using B20 in all diesel City vehicles in August 2003. Biodiesel is considered to be emissions neutral. Therefore, it was determined that 359 metric tons of CO2e were reduced or averted from using B20 verses standard diesel. This was done by calculating what the emissions would have been per gallon of regular diesel and subtracting what the emissions actually were from using B20. Table 5. Eugene Internal Emissions Reduced or Averted (Metric Tons CO2e) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fleets Switch to B20 Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 359 Wastewater Treatment Methane Combustion 46,533 45,774 51,628 37,335 41,731 45,530 47,804 47,932 46,952 47,866 48,348 Electricity Generated from Methane Combustion 1955 1606 1276 1241 1432 1229 1580 1511 1431 1471 1318 Total 48,488 47,380 52,904 38,577 43,162 46,759 49,383 49,443 48,383 49,337 50,025 A large amount of CO2e emissions at the wastewater treatment plan have been averted annually since 1992, when methane recovery was implemented. Methane recovery involves capturing the methane gas generated by wastewater treatment and either flaring the gas or burning it in an internal combustion engine to produce electricity, which converts the methane (CH2) into CO2. In addition, the electricity produced offsets electricity provided by a local utility. For example, the City of Eugene’s wastewater treatment facility generates fifty percent of the electricity used 54 Linking the Priorities of Eugene Citizens with Climate Protection Climate protection options can help local governments achieve their existing priorities. In 2004, the City of Eugene contracted with the University of Oregon Survey Research Laboratory (OSRL) to conduct the “City of Eugene Community Survey.” The goals of the survey were to obtain valid and reliable information from residents on the quality of life in Eugene, community priorities and values, and the quality of services provided by the City. OSRL implemented a phone survey of 401 randomly selected Eugene households in November 2004. The following section discusses how climate protection options can be linked with some of the outcomes of the OSRL report and thus help the City of Eugene address its citizen’s priorities. Eugene Resident Priority #1 - Economic Development and Unemployment The 2004 OSLR report identified economic development and unemployment as two of the most important problems facing Eugene residents. Thirteen percent of the respondents felt that economic development was an important issue, up from 9% in 2003. Seven percent of the respondents felt that unemployment was an important issue, down from 12% in 2003. Sixty percent of respondents feel that their economic opportunities in Eugene during the past five years has gotten better or stayed the same, compared with 50% in 2003, and 56% in 2002. Thirty six percent feel the situation has worsened, compared with 45% in 2003 and 35% in 2002. Research completed by the UO Program for Watershed and Community Health in 2003 and 2004 identified a number of emerging business opportunities in the field of sustainable development that could expand living wage job opportunities while producing goods and services that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These include: renewable energy generation, energy efficiency, energy efficient buildings, green building, waste-based economic development, organic and sustainable foods, and sustainable agriculture and forestry. By prioritizing the expansion of existing firms in these sectors and/or incubating and recruiting new firms with the goal of establishing industry clusters in these fields, The City of Eugene could address the top priority of local residents while also, almost as a side benefit, help reduce GHG emissions. The examples below summarize these growing sectors. Renewable Energy The renewable-energy industry includes energy sources that will not be depleted as electricity for heat energy is generated from them. Analysts generally consider renewable energy sources to be wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and small hydropower (although recent research suggests that hydropower may not be carbon neutral as many in the Pacific Northwest believe it to be). According to a study In Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia, clean energy is currently a $1.4 billion dollar industry. This market is anticipated to grow even larger as the nation adopts more strict standards for clean energy and the risks to the economy associated with global warming and abrupt climate change become move evident. However, even if government does nothing to support these new industries, this sector is expected to grow to a total of $2.5 billion a year over the next 20 years and over 12,000 jobs in the region. The Pacific Northwest is already a world leader in fuel cells, and has the ability to develop global leadership in power systems and solar photovoltaics as well. Wind, energy efficiency, and biomass energy sources also offer very substantial economic development potential in the region. Washington firms associated with 55 solar energy generated sales of $71 million and employed more than 420 people (see Table 6 below). Making the development of a renewable energy industry cluster in Eugene/Lane County a priority may generate a significant number of new businesses and jobs while also helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Table 6: Washington’s Renewable Energy Sectors, 1997 Example: Local Benefits From Wind Power: Although Lane County may not be ideal for wind power, EWEB sells it and it provides a good example of the economic development potential of renewable energy. Each kilowatt of wind power represents about $1,000 in tax base for the county in which it is generates. Wind developers commonly pay 1-3% of their value annually in property taxes. Since wind plants are among the most capital intensive of electrical generators – a wind turbine’s “fuel” is embodied in the up front investment – they can pay three times more property tax than comparable natural gas turbines. Another promise borne on the wind is new jobs. During construction, usually around 6-8 months, a 75 mW wind plant might require 200 or so workers, including laborers, electricians and heavy equipment operators. Permanent operations and maintenance positions are also created. For example, Iowa’s Storm Lake wind plant keeps a crew of 20 busy, and pays them $16/hour. For a rural area, that is a small but significant job base. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority estimates wind energy produces 27% more jobs per kilowatt hour than coal and 66% more jobs than natural gas. Wind plants also generate economic spillover effects – one study showed $500,000 in local purchases from a 100 mW installation. Biomass Case Studies: Fuels for Schools in Montana: Though often overshadowed by biofuel and wind initiatives, biomass projects are also playing an important role in Montana’s energy future. As noted in a January 17 Missoulian opinion, “Wood from western Montana forests is a ready, relatively inexpensive but underused source of heating fuel for schools and other larger buildings.” Noting the highly-touted Fuels for Schools program, the paper points out, “While we’re saving money on institutional heating costs by burning wood, we’ll also be paying local loggers and truckers money that now goes to Saudi princes. And buying this wood for fuel – 56 even at a substantial savings over oil – could help subsidize the cost of sound forest stewardship.” The second Fuels for Schools project in the state is saving big money in Philipsburg, where the school district’s January heating expense plunged to a mere $467 from December’s bill of $8,000. Thanks to the highly efficient design, the 181 tons of chips burned in January left only 80 gallons of ash. The boilers produce less than 3% of wood particulates and methane, less than 5% carbon monoxide and less than 40% of the nitrous oxide of an equal amount of free burning slash. The program’s business plan includes the current demonstration phase, where biomass burners modeled after a pilot project in Darby are established in several towns, including Victor, Philipsburg and Thompson Falls. Thompson Falls Public Schools, the third western Montana school district to climb on the national biomass bandwagon, recently accepted a $200,000 federal grant to help convert their older diesel-burning boiler to a biomass boiler fueled by wood waste from a local lumber mill plus forestry slash. The biomass heat will take care of about 80% of the campus’ total heat bill. Some $1.29 million in new funding was recently allocated for elementary and secondary schools in Kalispell, Troy, and Townsend, the University of Montana-Western in Dillon, and a hospital in Lewistown. Noted Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT), “These clean biomass systems are saving our local schools and communities thousands of dollars in winter heating costs and creating a market for small-diameter timber.” Example: The Apollo Project: The New Apollo Project is a $300 billion, public-private program to create three million new, clean energy jobs to free America from foreign oil dependence in ten years. It is a program that reinvests in the competitiveness of American industry, rebuilds our cities, creates good jobs for working families, and ensures good stewardship of both the economy and our natural environment. The new Apollo Initiative will achieve these benefits by pursuing four broad strategies: • Diversify our energy sources: making America less dependent on foreign oil, while making energy more secure, more affordable and reliable, and less polluting • Invest in the industries of the future: promoting new technology, improving manufacturing processes, and expanding markets for American durable goods. • Promote construction of high performance, energy efficient buildings: saving money and rebuilding more livable, more equitable, and healthier environments, and • Drive investment in cities and communities: renewing our commitment to building smart public infrastructure for transportation, energy, and other vital public services. Detailed analysis of the potential economic benefits reveals the promise of Apollo. A $30 billion investment per year for 10 years would provide the following benefits: 59 Figure 14: Green Building and People Costs Green building: A focus on people costs • Reduce operating costs • Improve employee productivity • Optimize life-cycle economic performance • Enhance asset value and profits Capital Costs 2% O & M 6% Personnel 92% Source: City of Portland The new library and other buildings owned by the City of Eugene have adopted green building standards. Making it a priority for all new buildings and all retrofits to meet high LEED standards would generate new jobs in the building trades and in commercial and residential materials and product development while also reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Efficient in Public Buildings Extensive research has shown that energy efficiency practices in public buildings can reduce wasteful consumption, improve productivity of employees, and create jobs in the process. A summary of the potential savings if efficiency practices were adopted at public buildings throughout Oregon and Washington are provided below. Making it a priority for all new buildings and all retrofits to meet high energy efficiency standards would generate new jobs in the building trades while also reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions. 60 Table 8: Cost Savings and New Jobs from Adoption of Energy Efficiency Practices: Government Office Buildings, Hospitals, and Schools Waste-Based Economic Development Diverting waste material from landfills or incinerators for use in products and services creates new businesses and jobs while reducing the waste and consequence greenhouse gas emissions produced by landfills and incinerators. One study found that currently, there are over 400 such businesses in Oregon that add value to materials previously considered “waste” through reuse, manufacturing, and recycling. These firms vary from grocers, to construction, furniture manufacturers, mills, and clothing. Through the development of new technologies and markets, substances that we currently think of as waste become inputs for new products. A growing demand for these products is translating directly into new, well paying jobs for the region. A study by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (2001) indicates that the wages earned in the reuse and recycling industry are equally competitive with other major manufacturing jobs in the U.S. The average manufacturing wage for Oregon in 2000 was $45,839, compared to the average wage of $33,776. As an example, St. Vincent De Paul of Lane County (SVDP) re-manufactures appliances, mattresses, furniture, clothing, and most recently, glass, at the Aurora Glass Foundry. SVDP employs 255 people per year, contributing 5 million dollars in annual payroll, of which 75% is directly attributed to recycled products. 61 Making the expansion of waste-based economic development a priority in Eugene and Lane County could generate new jobs while also reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions. Table 9: U.S. Recycling and Reuse Manufacturing Industries, 2001 Sustainable and Organic Food Industries The US Department of Agriculture and regional farmers indicate that using proper conservation tillage methods and applying integrated pest management techniques often result in net savings for the farm and reduced CO2. Besides increasing farmers’ earnings, these practices have substantial environmental benefits, ensure future productivity of land resources, and provide production inputs to organic food processors. The organic and sustainable foods industries are growing at above 20% annually in the Northwest and nationally and are the fastest growing sectors of the food trade. Organic farming means that no synthetic toxic pesticides or fertilizers are used. Sustainable farming generally includes but goes beyond organic to ensure that sustainable practices are employed in every aspect of the system, such as in land management, packaging, and transportation. As concerns about pesticides and issues such as Mad Cow disease grow, the natural foods industry is certain to benefit. This sector already represents a significant economic contributor to the Northwest. Making the growth of these industries a priority for Eugene and Lane County would generate new jobs while also reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions. For more information about this industry see the 2003 UO Resource Innovations (formerly Program for Watershed and Community Health) report on the natural foods sector in Lane County, Oregon. Sustainable Forestry Forestry has historically been a vital part of Oregon’s economy. However, for numerous reasons, many communities that were once reliant on forest products for their livelihood have seen a loss of jobs and incomes related to the industry. One emerging solution to this problem is sustainable forestry. Sustainable forestry involves the adoption of environmentally sound forest management and harvesting practices, certification of these practices, and marketing and sales of the certified products to consumers. Sustainable forestry can maintain and create jobs while also increasing the number of trees and protecting basic ecological functions needed for carbon sequestration. 64 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Options for Local Government Operations A variety of technologies and practices are available to local governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The primary focus areas include lighting, buildings, procurement, water and wastewater, waste, fleets, and energy types and efficiency. This section outlines an array of options that can aid the City of Eugene, City of Springfield, and Lane County in their efforts to plan for global warming and abrupt climate change. Energy Efficiency The cheapest and best way to reduce greenhouse gasses is through increased energy efficiency. Employing energy efficient measures can range from replacing existing technology with more efficient technology or encouraging the use of renewable sources of energy, such as wind, solar, and hydroelectricity. It can also include making policy changes to reward conservation strategies. Energy Efficient Light Fixtures Replacing incandescent traffic signals with light emitting diodes (LEDs) consume less energy, have a longer life, and require less maintenance. Public, commercial, and retail buildings as well as individual homes can also replace inefficient lights with more efficient ones. Fort Collins, Colorado In 1997, the City conducted a pilot test of red LEDs and “Don’t Walk” signs. The results indicated that LEDs would save $1.46/signal/day in electrical costs. Generally, LEDs pay for themselves in three to four years, and have a life span of seven to ten years. As of 1999, the City had already installed 28 intersections. If the City installs all new traffic signals using LED reds and Don’t Walks (an estimated four new intersections per year), and retrofit all existing intersections, it would cost the city $286,000 for the retrofits, and $8,500/year for the new installation, but the City would save a cumulative $992,650 by 2010. It will also reduce Nitrogen oxide emissions by 0.3 metric tons/year, and sulfur oxide emissions by 0.4 metric tons/year. Source: Fort Collins. “Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gases from Energy Use.” http://fcgov.com/airquality/pdf/ch6-energy.pdf Occupancy Sensors Occupancy sensors reduce energy waste by taking over light-switch chores. Sensors turn the lights on when they sense someone coming into a room or area, and then turn the lights off some time after sensing the room is empty. These sensors are best suited in spaces that are used infrequently or unpredictably, such as conference rooms, private offices, classrooms, storage areas, and bathrooms. Sensors can be mounted on the wall just like a light switch or installed in the ceiling. 65 Green Pricing Programs Some power companies are now providing an optional service, called green pricing, that allows customers to pay a small premium in exchange for electricity generated from clean, renewable ("green") energy sources. The premium covers the increased costs incurred by the power provider (i.e. electric utility) when adding renewable energy to its power generation mix, whether it be natural gas, hydropower, wind, or geothermal energy. Any buildings receiving electricity from a provider that offers green pricing can participate in the program. Ashland, Oregon In November 2003, the City of Ashland, Oregon and the nonprofit Bonneville Environmental Foundation (BEF) teamed to offer the city's electricity customers a new green power option. Under the Renewable Pioneers program, residents and businesses can support local and regional renewable energy development by purchasing Green Tags directly from BEF at a cost of 2¢/kWh. Ten percent of the revenues from green tags sales to Ashland residents and businesses will be used to fund solar projects within the city. Program participants will see no change in their utility bills because the green tags purchase is a separate transaction with BEF. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy: Green Power. “Green Pricing.” 2004. http://www.eere.energy.gov/greenpower/markets/pricing.shtml Energy Rebates and Low Interest Loans Many utilities, including EWEB, SUB, and Lane Electric provide incentives such as rebates or low interest loans to encourage businesses, residents, and industry to be more efficient in their use of energy. The rebates and loans usually apply to new windows, appliances, solar hot water, and the installation of renewable energy systems. Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), California SMUD is a publicly owned municipal utility which provides electricity to over a million people living in an area of 900 square miles in the City of Sacramento, California, and the surrounding area. SMUD's Conservation Power Financing Program (PFP), started in 1990, provides loans and rebates for a range of electrical efficiency measures to the utility's residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers. A separate program applies to public schools, local governments, and other public agencies. Through the PFP, SMUD provides free audits, identifies appropriate energy efficiency measures, identifies financing options, helps arrange installation of the retrofit measures by an outside contractor, and provides ongoing monitoring. The utility also provides rebates for the installation of certain peak energy saving measures, including: indoor and outdoor lighting conversions ($150 per kW saved or controlled); cooling/refrigeration/electric heating modifications or replacements ($250 per kW saved or controlled); demand limiting devices and energy management systems ($50 per kW shed or controlled); and daylighting systems ($250 per kW controlled). Source: ICLEI. “Conservation Power Financing Program (PFP).” 1995-2005. http://www.iclei.org/cases/c013-smu.htm 66 Public Facilities Optimize Waste Distribution and Wastewater Treatment Systems Water distribution is often the largest single component of energy use by local governments. Across the United States, energy consumption accounts for 50 to 75% of the costs of operating municipal water systems. Of this, water pumping often consumes 80% or more of the electricity used in water distribution and treatment. Many cities are using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems to slash their energy costs. SCADA is a category of software application program for process control, the gathering of data in from remote locations in order to control equipment and conditions. SCADA is used in power plants as well as in oil and gas refining, telecommunications, transportation, and water and waste control. Building Design & Efficiency Green Building and the LEED Rating System Improving building design and efficiency is often termed “green building”. Green building techniques strive to design and operate buildings to use energy more efficiently. Consequently, most green buildings use renewable sources of energy (i.e. solar, wind, and biomass) and are built from materials that have a reduced effect on the environment throughout their life cycle (i.e. recycled content, low toxicity, energy efficiency, biodegradability, and/or durability). Green building techniques can be used in any new or existing building, including residential dwellings and businesses. The LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Green Building Rating System® is a voluntary, consensus-based national standard for developing high-performance, sustainable buildings. Members of the U.S. Green Building Council representing all segments of the building industry developed LEED and continue to contribute to its evolution. LEED provides a complete framework for assessing building performance and meeting sustainability goals. Based on well-founded scientific standards, LEED emphasizes state of the art strategies for sustainable site development, water savings, energy efficiency, materials selection and indoor environmental quality. LEED recognizes achievements and promotes expertise in green building through a comprehensive system offering project certification, professional accreditation, training and practical resources. For more information about the LEED rating system see the U.S. Green Building Council website: http://www.usgbc.org/leed/leed_main.asp For information about green building efforts in Lane County see: http://cwch.uoregon.edu/ReportsFolder/Lane_County_Final_Green_Building_Report10_10_200 3.PDF 69 Sunoco Car Wash - Markham Ontario, Canada This carwash preheats its water using forty solar collectors. Car washes using conventional boilers fired by natural gas, generate greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The solar car wash will save an estimated 16,000 cubic meters of natural gas and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 30 metric tons each year at this particular service center. Source: ARISE Technologies Corporation. “Success Stories.” http://www.arisetech.com/Solar_Info/Success_Stories.html Photovoltaic Systems Photovoltaic systems use sunlight to power ordinary electrical equipment, for example, household appliances, computers and lighting. The photovoltaic (PV) process converts free solar energy - the most abundant energy source on the planet - directly into electricity. The use of solar systems is booming across the Northwest and nationally. They are being used to power industrial and retail facilities, public buildings, hospitals, recreational sites and parks, and households. Heat Recovery Ventilators (HRV) HRVs uses outgoing air to heat a package of aluminum plates, which then warm up incoming air. With no rotating parts to wear out, maintenance time and cost plummet. There systems are commonly used among large buildings by the government and wider community. University of Ottawa, Canada, HRV System Because the incoming air doesn't need to be heated as much before it enters the building, the University saves money on its heating bills. After the installation of the air-to-air units, total energy use at the university dropped by about two million equivalent kilowatt hours, for a cash savings of $62,000 a year. Those savings, together with a provincial incentive, mean each new unit installed pays for itself in an average of three years. Not surprisingly planners at the University now discuss installing heat recovery equipment in all new construction and renovation projects. The new system fits into an overall effort by the university to use energy wisely. It has also installed a campus-wide computer-based monitoring and control system, new insulation in roofs and walls, new windows, T-8 lighting conversion, and projects to manage peak demand and water efficiency. Overall, the university has saved $3 million per year from its energy efficiency efforts. Source: Natural Resources Canada. 20 October 2004. “Meeting Climate Change Challenges Through Energy Efficiency”. http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/infosource/pub/ici/eii/M27-01- 1035E.cfm Low-Income Residential Energy Efficiency Programs Energy efficiency programs encourage cities to form partnerships with other agencies to help families afford low-income housing by reducing energy costs. 70 Vermont Vermont’s Residential Energy Efficiency Program (REEP) works with property developers, owners, and managers to reduce energy costs and promote long-term affordability of low-income housing. The program was established in 1997 to overcome technical, financial, and regulatory barriers to improving the energy performance in Vermont’s low-income multifamily housing. This unique partnership between local utilities and the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) leverages utility incentives, WAP subsidies, and owner investments to implement all cost-effective energy measures. In less than two years, REEP has put over $1,275,000 in energy improvements in 893 low-income multifamily residential units throughout Vermont. REEP accomplished this with less than $400,000 in incentives from local utilities and the WAP. Estimated annual customer energy savings are over $255,000 annually. Vermont’s program has been able to reduce CO2 emissions by 945 metric metric tons per year. (Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “Residential Energy Efficiency Program for Low-Income Multifamily Housing.” http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/RAMR5CYQWT/$File/VT_REEP.pdf Transportation: Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) The goal of encouraging the use of public transportation is to minimize the use of single passenger vehicles that contribute to congestion and pollution. In addition to the examples listed below, other ways to reduce VMT are to expand public transit routes and hours, accommodate bikes on buses, offer free bus passes to City employees, allow youth and elderly to ride the bus for free, expand bike path network, create bike loaner programs, and use bikes as a source of transportation in City Departments (i.e. police). The following examples are just a few of the ways local governments can reduce VMT in their jurisdiction and surrounding community. Telecommuting Telecommuting allows employees to fulfill their job duties at home without having to drive to work. This saves employers time by not having to drive to and from work as well as reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Portland, Oregon The Green Team in Portland created a "Car Free and Care Free" (CFCF) week sponsored by the Westside Transportation Alliance. CFCF encourages employees to get out of their cars by telecommuting or using an alternative form of transportation, such as light rail, bus, bike, carpools, or walking. Over 100 City employees participated in the first CFCF in 1999; they reduced emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 by 4 metric tons. In 2000, the Green Team partnered with the City's Transportation Options Division to add an open house to the event. Organizers provided information about transportation alternatives, promoted Bike Month, and held bike rides. (Source: Green Team. “Sustainable Portland.” Energy Division. http://www.sustainableportland.org/energy_gov_green.html) Employer Trip Reduction Programs 71 Trip reduction programs offer incentives to employees to encourage them to use alternative forms of transportation to and from work. Those who honor the program are rewarded, and those who don’t have to pay the price. This approach not only improves availability of parking on site, but also reduces congestion in the city. These programs can be used by local governments in their own operations as well as by businesses throughout the community. Bellevue, Washington Bellevue, Washington’s Trip Reduction Program is one of the most successful in the country. The high participation rates are largely achieved by charging $35 per month to park and making those funds available for other Transportation Reduction Program incentives. The total annual program budget is $125,000 with parking revenues generating approximately $100,000 of that total. The program affects the City's three main work sites. All employees who arrive at work using an alternate commute mode for at least 60% of their commute trips receive free parking on the days they drive. Employees who walk, bicycle or carpool at least 80% of their commute trips receive a financial incentive of $15 per month. Employees who take the bus for 80% of their trips receive a subsidy of $39.50, equivalent to the cost of a monthly transit pass. Bellevue employees have access to vanpools run by METRO, the regional transit agency. The price the employee pays for the vanpool service is offset by a $39.50 per month subsidy which the City of Bellevue pays to METRO. For carpoolers, Bellevue also has an innovative "Fleetride" program. The employee who is the designated carpool driver is allowed to use one of Bellevue's fleet cars for their commute trips. Fleetride cars are returned to the fleet pool each day. There must be at least three city employees participating in the carpool to be eligible for the Fleetride program. Direct emissions reductions through this program exceed 40,000 metric tons of CO2, 250 metric tons of NOx, and 300 metric tons of volatile organic compounds per year. (Source: ICLEI. Trip Reduction Program. 1995-2001. http://www.iclei.org/cases/c003-trp.htm; Pew Center on Global Climate Change. “State and Local Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Programs.” http://www.pewclimate.org/states.cfm?ID=14) Huntington Beach, California The City of Huntington Beach's Transportation Reduction Program is titled "Alternate Commute Program". Huntington Beach's program is unusual in that it offers credits to alternate mode commuters that can be exchanged for work time off, or converted to gift certificates from local vendors. The number of credits received depends on how much air pollution is avoided by the participant’s choice of commute mode. (Source: ICLEI. “Alternate Commute Program.” 1995-2004. http://www.iclei.org/cases/c005- acp.htm) 74 Mountain View, California One of the worst side effects of sprawl is the time people spend driving their cars. In the last three decades, total vehicle use has more than tripled nationwide as people are forced to drive to work, the grocery store, or the movies. California's booming Silicon Valley is infamous for time spent behind the wheel, but the town of Mountain View decided to make a change. Working with an architect who understood what the community needed, the city and a builder named TPG Development launched The Crossings, a cluster of 300 homes built around a new commuter train station and located within walking distance of shops, offices, and open space. The Crossings incorporates two smart-growth elements that free people from their cars: access to public transportation and high-density design. The typical suburban formula of one house per acre stretches the outer limits of towns and adds to residents' commuting time. In contrast, The Crossings has 22 units per acre. Thanks to careful planning, residents say this density does not feel confining, because it is so easy for them to walk to shops, nearby offices, or the train station. They note that the parks, wide sidewalks, lush landscaping, parks, and pleasant streets create a feeling of spaciousness. In fact, despite claims that consumers dislike density, the Center for Livable Communities reports that The Crossings has some of the fastest selling homes in the region. Source: Natural Resource Defense Council. “How Smart Growth Solves Sprawl” http://www.nrdc.org/cities/smartGrowth/solslide/solslide4.asp Computerized Routing Systems Electronic navigation works by providing drivers with a computerized road map showing congestion ahead and flashing suggested alternate routes around the trouble. It is one part of a broader area of research and development collectively called Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS), or commonly known as "smart cars/smart highways". In doing so, it can help employees and the wider community get to a destination more quickly, and avoid heavily congested areas that require extended period of idling, and stop and go traffic. Transportation: Maximize Fuel Efficiency In many cases, City staff is unable to utilize public transportation to fulfill their job duties. It makes sense that if employees have to drive, the vehicles they use should be cost effective and pollute as little as possible. The following is a list of ways municipal fleets can maximize their fuel efficiency. These programs can extend to individuals outside of the local government in their own personal vehicle preferences. Phase-Out Inefficient Vehicles Programs with an emphasis on maximizing fuel efficiency strive to replace old vehicles with newer, more compact ones that meet specified fuel efficiency standards. This might include incorporating vehicles into the fleet that operate on alternative sources of fuel, such as hydrogen, electricity, or biodiesel. Performing frequent vehicle maintenance, requiring driver education and training, and creating policies on idling restrictions can also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save money. 75 Denver, Colorado The City of Denver's Green Fleets Program, enacted on April 22, 1993, contains a broad range of programs and policies to maximize the fuel efficiency of its municipal fleet. Denver's Green Fleets Executive Order mandates a reduction in the number of fleet vehicles, a reduction in vehicle miles traveled, and a preference for the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles. Vehicles targeted are any vehicles in the fleet that operate on gasoline or an alternative fuel, and are rated at one ton or under. When new or replacement vehicles are requested, fleet managers and department heads are asked to evaluate the vehicle's intended use and downsize it to the smallest possible vehicle which could still complete the required function. Another key feature of Denver's vehicle purchasing policy is the inclusion of miles per gallon targets in their new vehicle bid specifications. Specifying the miles per gallon target is important to ensure that vehicles purchased have the fuel efficiency desired. Other areas that are addressed by the Green Fleets policy are idling restrictions, driver education and training, and vehicle maintenance. Through this Green Fleets policy, all City agencies which own/operate municipal fleets shall decrease fuel expenditures by an average of 1% per year (adjusted for fuel cost inflation), and decrease CO2 emissions by 1.5% per year. The base year for determining fuel and emission reductions is 1992. The estimated effects of Denver's Green Fleets program by the year 2005, are annual fuel cost savings of $106,000 and a reduction in CO2 emissions of 22% relative to 1992 levels, even though the number of vehicle miles traveled will have increased by 19%. (Source: ICLEI. “Green Fleets Program.” 1995-2005. http://www.iclei.org/cases/c002-dgf.htm) Alternative Sources of Fuels Alternative sources of fuel can be derived from natural gas, electricity, ethanol, propane, and biodiesel. Although natural gas is a fossil fuel it is the one fossil fuel that is actually quite clean. Ethanol (E85) is a mixture of 85% ethanol (a fuel derived from the fermentation of cereal) and 15% gasoline. Vehicles that run on electricity require “charging stations” to re-charge their vehicles battery. Another option is to purchase hybrid vehicles that run on both gasoline and electricity; the vehicle charges itself as you drive. Biodiesel is a combination of ethanol and waste or pure vegetable oil. All of these fuel types have the potential to improve air quality by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A company called Sequential BioFuels is selling the biofuels throughout Oregon, with a primary focus on fleets. In addition, legislation has been introduced to the 2005 state legislature aimed at supporting the development of the biofuels industry. University of Oregon – Eugene, Oregon Two tractors used by the campus and grounds maintenance team on the University of Oregon’s Campus burn 100% bio-diesel fuel. All other diesel powered equipment and vehicles use a 20% mixture of bio and regular diesel fuel. Source: University of Oregon. “Mobile Equipment Shop.” 2003. http://facilities.uoregon.edu/mobile.php 76 New York City, New York The Alternative Fuels Program is working to replace New York City’s public fleets with alternative fuel vehicles in order to promote and expand usage of alternative fuels, which are much less polluting to the air and more friendly to the environment. This effort began in 1993 with the conversion of 385 New York City municipal fleet vehicles to compressed natural gas (the New York City Fire Department prohibits use of any other type of natural gas in the city). Since that time, the Alternative Fuels Program has expanded its range of involvement and works closely with all levels of government agencies operating fleets in New York City. Close relationships have also been developed with utilities (KeySpan and Con Edison) and a few private sector fleets. As a result, the number of alternative fuel vehicles on New York City roads now totals over 6,000. These vehicles are a mixture of natural gas, hybrid, E85 (ethanol), and electric vehicles. New York City operates one of the largest municipal electric vehicle (EV) fleets in the United States with over 70 EVs in use. The main alternative fuel choice in New York City, at present, is compressed natural gas (CNG). Although natural gas is a fossil fuel it is, as mentioned before, the one fossil fuel that is actually quite clean. CNG emits less nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) than gasoline. Natural gas buses have been proven to produce an average of 97% less particulate matter (PM), 84% less carbon monoxide (CO) and 58% less nitrogen oxide (NOx). Source: New York City Department of Transportation. “DOT Alternative Fuels Program.” http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/motorist/alternativefuel.html Fort Collins, Colorado The City of Fort Collins Fleets Services has demonstrated a longtime commitment to alternative fuel vehicles. As an example, in 1997, 152 (34%) of the City’s fleet of 450 vehicles were powered by propane. In 1998, the municipal fleet consumed 166,245 gallons of propane fuel. This translates to 139 metric tons of CO2 eliminated in 1998 through the use of propane fuel. Source: Fort Collins. “Colorado Existing Emission Reduction Measures.” http://fcgov.com/airquality/pdf/ch3-exist.pdf Seattle, Washington Under the new "Clean Green Fleet Action Plan," approximately half of all compact cars purchased by the city will use cleaner-burning alternative fuel such as compressed natural gas or get at least 45 miles per gallon. In 2000, hybrid electric cars were added to the fleet because they are 60% more fuel efficient than the standard car. Today, the City has more than 200 clean and green vehicles in the fleet. In 2001, the entire diesel fleet was converted to cleaner ultra-low sulfur diesel. And work started on retrofitting 400 of the City’s heavy-duty trucks with emission control devices. These two measures cut toxics and particulates by about 50% per vehicle. Source: Seattle’s Office of Sustainability and Environment. “What are the air quality issues in Seattle in 2004?” 1995-2005. http://www.seattle.gov/environment/clean_air.htm#greenFleet 79 Oregon’s fields and forests are valued by Oregonians for economic, environmental and recreational reasons, but they can and must perform an additional service. The Advisory Group recommends actions to increase the amount of carbon that can be captured and fixed in new or restored forest and field growth and in the soil beneath. Decades of clearing forests, turning the soil, and building cities and highways where there had been undisturbed ground, have both released large quantities of greenhouse gases and impaired the land’s physical ability to take up and sequester excess gases. While we will continue to work the lands that must feed, clothe and shelter us, there are still land management choices that will restore much of this natural sequestration capability. Reforestation and conservation reserves in lands of marginal economic value are familiar tools. These uses must be stepped up dramatically, encouraged and sustained with government policies and public investment dollars (Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions, 2004). As quoted from Jim Cathcart’s article, “Forest, Climate and Global Climate Change” from the September, 2000 Journal of Forestry (Jim also works for the Oregon State Forestry Office and the Forest Resource trust): Forestry-based carbon offset programs involving family forest owners usually offer the landowner some sort of favorable financial assistance to cover the cost of site preparation, tree planting, seedling protection and competitive release in exchange for obtaining ownership of the carbon offsets arising from the newly created forest. A common denominator to these programs is the type of land they target-under producing land capable of supporting a forest, but currently lacking a manageable stand of trees or seedlings. Examples include old pastures, abandoned Christmas tree lands, wildfire-burned lands, brush fields, agricultural lands or otherwise productive lands dominated by non-commercial tree species. These are lands that will likely remain in a non-forested condition unless financial assistance to plant and establish trees on a particular site is provided. The need for financial assistance is important because carbon programs must create new forested land to claim credit for carbon offsets (Cathcart, 2000, p. 34). The Forest Resource Trust creates a valid opportunity for Lane County to offset or mitigate existing CO2 production by simply planting trees (for more information on the Forest Resource Trust contact Jim Cathcart with the State Foresters Office). Whether in collaboration or on its own planting trees creates a great CO2 mitigating opportunity. The graph below highlights the reductions available from planting trees on previously non-forested areas (Cathcart, 2000, p. 34). 80 Wetlands Because wetlands are highly productive and accumulate large below-ground stocks of organic carbon, restoring lost wetlands and protecting those that remain represents an opportunity for enhancing terrestrial carbon sequestration. Carbon is stored in wetland sediments over the long term. Short-term stores are in existing biomass (plants, animals, bacteria, fungi) and dissolved components in the surface and groundwater. The magnitude of wetland carbon storage capacity are unknown. While some carbon cycling data are available on a small scale, it remains unknown whether these data represent all situations or can be extrapolated to the landscape level. “When weighting the positive effects of carbon sequestration versus the production of small amounts of methane and nitrous oxide, wetland restoration must still be considered as one of the best ecosystem alternatives for mitigating atmospheric accumulation of CO2 if done on a large scale restoration, such as has been proposed for the Midwest USA. Restored wetlands could also have the added benefit of mitigating drought conditions caused by climate shifts and could assist in minimizing the effects of floods in areas with wetter climates” (Mitsch). “Following the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which provided for biological sinks as a measure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the Wetlands International Association of State Wetlands Managers (WI-A), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Ducks Unlimited Canada (DUC) and North American Wetlands Conservation Council (NAWCC) formed the Wetlands and Climate Change Consortium. The goals were to assess the degree to which wetland conservation activities were carbon sinks and/or sources, and to assess the potential of crediting conserving wetlands as carbon sinks. The Feasibility Study found that wetlands 81 contain the largest reservoirs of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, but can function as both sinks and/or sources depending on type and environmental conditions. The study and the Oak Hammock Wetlands and Carbon Sequestration Workshop concluded that wetland conservation and restoration in agricultural landscapes provide significant opportunities to enhance anthropogenic carbon sinks” (Patterson, et al.). Central Plains, United States Scientists in the U.S. undertook a wetland restoration study in the northern states of the Central Plains. In 1996 they sampled 204 wetlands and found that undisturbed, pristine wetlands hold twice as much carbon as drained wetland areas converted to agriculture. The study indicates that carbon sequestration in wetlands could be achieved through wetland restoration, but it would likely take 10 years before carbon storage levels returned to those associated with pristine wetlands. The analysis also stressed that dried wetland basins continue to emit carbon after draining. Source: Wylynko, David. “Prarie Wetlands and Carbon Sequestration: Assessing Sinks Under the Kyoto Protocol.” International Institute for Sustainable Development, Wetlands International, Ducks Unlimited. Inc. Sept. 1999.http://www.iisd.org/wetlands/wrkshp_sum.pdf These, and other studies, imply that it is crucial to preserve wetlands so that they act as a sink, rather than a source of carbon dioxide. Municipal governments should preserve wetlands to contribute to the potential regional benefits of carbon sequestration. The existing Eugene Wetlands provide a significant opportunity to reduce Carbon by simply maintaining or improving wetland health. The Eugene Wetlands Bank Program The Eugene Wetlands Bank program is an example of the efforts already in place in Lane County to restore and continue to provide wetlands as a means of contributing to environmental stability and health. According to the Eugene Wetlands Bank website the Bank serves the following purpose. The Bank is a result of the West Eugene Wetlands Plan, which was locally adopted in 1992 and was Oregon's first wetland conservation plan. It is a multiple objective plan that provides a vision for wetlands protection and community development. It identifies about 1,300 acres of wetlands, recommends about 1,000 acres for protection or restoration, and delineates approximately 300 acres of lower value wetlands suitable for future fill and development. The Plan establishes standards for preservation, restoration, and fill of wetlands and describes the processes required for Plan implementation. State and federal laws require compensatory mitigation for the loss of all wetlands regardless of value. Plan policies call for creation of a mitigation bank to help fund restoration and enhancement in conjunction with a program to protect valuable wetlands (West Eugene Wetlands Bank, 2005). 84 St. John’s Landfill – Portland, Oregon In 1991, Metro began a $36 million closure project of the landfill that involved capping the landfill with earth and vegetation and constructing a 9,400-foot pipeline to deliver methane from the landfill to a local cement kiln. Completed in 1998, the project is highly successful, diverting 1.5 million cubit feet of landfill gas from the atmosphere per year. The energy captured from the gas is equivalent to 8 million therms of natural as per year - enough to serve 3,500 Portland homes. Carbon dioxide reductions from the utilization of the energy in landfill gas are estimated to be 23,000 metric metric tons per year. Source: City of Portland. “Carbon Dioxide Reduction Strategy: Success and Setbacks.” Portland Energy Office. June 2000. http://www.sustainableportland.org/co2update2000.pdf WasteWise Wastewise is a free, voluntary, EPA program through which organizations eliminate costly municipal solid waste by designing their own waste reduction programs tailored to their needs. Municipal solid waste includes materials that would otherwise end up in a landfill, such as corrugated cardboard, paper, yard trimmings, packaging, wood pallets, and non-hazardous substances. Waste reduction can save an organization money through reduced purchasing and waste disposal costs. For more information about wastewise and its relation to global warming visit http://www.epa.gov/epaoswer/non-hw/reduce/wstewise/pubs/wwupdate18.pdf Pendleton, Oregon The Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation reuse milk jugs as slow-watering irrigation devices and as warning signs to cattle near barbed-wire fences. The tribal operations manager promotes reuse by running an informal materials exchange via e-mail. The reservation’s quarterly newspaper, The Tribal Environmental Recovery Facility, educates residents about waste prevention and highlights the community’s progress in reaching its substantial waste reduction goals. With the installation of a new recycling and waste disposal facility, residents now have the option of dropping off recyclables or ordering curb-side pick-up. This center collected nearly 15 metric tons of paper products and 30 metric tons of metal for recycling in 2001. The tribe purchases recycled products whenever possible. Source: EPA WasteWise. “2002 Annual Report.” Environmental Protection Agency. 2002. http://www.epa.gov/wastewise/pubs/progrpts/pdfs/report8.pdf#page=4 Pay-As-You-Throw EPA provides technical and outreach assistance to encourage local governments to implement pay-as-you-throw systems for managing solid waste in their communities. With pay-as-you- throw, residents are charged based on the amount of waste they discard. This system creates an incentive for residents to generate less trash and recycle more. Currently, over 5,000 pay-as-you- throw communities exist in the United States. On average, communities with pay-as-you-throw 85 see waste reductions of 14 to 27 percent. Eugene, Oregon has implemented this program since 1992. Vancouver, Washington In 1990, Vancouver introduced an incremental rate structure that made the rate for a second trash can 84 percent higher than the first can. In just 15 months, the city experiences a 13-percent decrease in the number of customers choosing the one can basic service and a corresponding decrease in customers choosing the two-can service. Today the city has a variety of trash can sizes to accommodate individual household and business needs. In 1992, the city also implemented a curbside recycling program for recyclables including yard debris. By the end of 1995, the city has achieved a 51 percent recycling rate. Source: Canterbury, Janice. “Pay-as-you-throw: A growing MSW management success story.” Resource Recycling. October 1997. http://www.epa.gov/epaoswer/non-hw/payt/pdf/rr1097.pdf 86 Private Sector Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies Many businesses and academic institutions are taking proactive approaches to climate protection by implementing greenhouse gas emission reduction goals and strategies. In doing so, they are setting examples for how other businesses can follow in their footsteps. Many are also finding significant cost savings through the process. This section of the report provides examples of the actions leading businesses are taking to address for climate change. It has been organized into three sections: products and services, manufacturing, and academia. Products & Services DuPont Operating in more than 70 countries, DuPont offers a wide range of innovative products and services for markets including agriculture, nutrition, electronics, communications, safety and protection, home and construction, transportation and apparel. The company motto is that they put science to work by creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere. DuPont began an ambitious carbon dioxide and energy reduction program 10 years ago that today has brought greenhouse gas emissions down 70 percent; in the same period, production increased almost 30 percent. These carbon-reduction and energy-efficiency measures have produced significant financial benefits for DuPont. In addition to cumulative energy savings of more than $2 billion, renewable energy saves $10 million annually over fossil fuels. DuPont also hopes to realize $40 million in coming years from trading carbon emissions credits. To underscore its commitment to this new commodities market, the company became a charter member of the Chicago Climate Exchange, a pilot program for greenhouse gas emission reduction and trading. Specifically, by 2010, DuPont’s goals are: 1) Reduce global carbon-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent using 1990 as a base year 2) Hold total energy use flat using 1990 as a base year 3) Derive 10 percent of their global energy use in the year 2010 from renewable resources Source: DuPont. “Global Climate Change.” June 2001. http://www1.dupont.com/NASApp/dupontglobal/corp/index.jsp?page=/content/US/en_US/news/ position/global_climate.html Northrop, Michael. “Benefits of Cutting Emissions.” Washington Post. 28 February 2005. Dow Dow is a leader in science and technology, providing innovative chemical, plastic and agricultural products and services to many essential consumer markets. With annual sales of $40 billion, Dow serves customers in 175 countries and a wide range of markets that are vital to 89 Progressive Investments have also increased teleconferencing and shifted travel to modes with less environmental impact whenever possible. They mitigate the carbon emissions associated with the travel that cannot be avoided. The cost of mitigation is actually very low, so they multiply the cost figure from travel mitigation by a factor of ten. Multiplying carbon emissions recognizes the additional environmental impacts associated with travel. Progressive Investments provides incentives to minimize single occupancy vehicle travel by reimbursing the cost of public transportation for employees. They also make contributions toward bicycle maintenance for any employee who commutes by bike. To enable employees to leave their cars at home and take alternative transportation to work, the company has joined Flexcar’s car-sharing program. There is a hybrid-electric vehicle at the Natural Capital Center for Flexcar member use. “In 2004 Progressive Investment Management emitted 100 metric tons of CO2 due to travel and 17 metric tons of CO2 due to energy use (we purchase renewable energy for much of our energy use, and there are insignificant CO2 emissions associated with that). After multiplying our business emissions by a factor of 10 (to make the number large enough to motivate change, and also to recognize other environmental impacts associated with travel and energy use beyond CO2 emissions), and adding some personal travel, we spent a total of $12,864.76 on mitigation efforts. The money was divided as follows -- Purchase of 678 metric tons of CO2 offsets (almost 7 times our actual business emissions) from the Climate Trust and donations totaling $ 6,429.36 to the Oregon Environmental Council, the Green House Network and the NW Earth Institute -- all groups working on education, outreach and policy initiatives to address global warming issues. To sum up, Progressive Investment Management has been offsetting its carbon emissions since 2000 and we have been carbon neutral (offsetting emissions associated with travel and energy use at all of our offices) since 2001.”1 Source: “Greenhouse Gas Reduction.” Progressive Investment Management. http://www.progressiveinvestment.com/sub.php?id=432 Norm Thompson Outfitters Based in Portland, Oregon, Norm Thompson publishes three catalogues: Norm Thompson, Solutions, and Early Winters. Norm Thompson plans to offset 100 percent of its annual direct greenhouse gas emissions by 2006 through the purchase of renewable energy certificates. The company believes that global climate change is among the most imminent threats to the planet and its people, as well as Norm Thompson’s own business interests. By purchasing green power, Norm Thompson hopes to help convert fossil fuel-based power grids to clean, renewable energy sources. Norm Thompson Outfitters is also a leader in the catalog industry in making the changeover to recycled paper, helping to lessen the environmental burden at no loss to their profitability. The Alliance for Environmental Innovation estimates that Norm Thompson's switch to recycled paper for their catalogs means an annual savings of 4,400 metric tons of wood, 20 billion BTUs of energy, 11.7 million gallons of wastewater and 990 metric tons of solid waste. 1 Email communication on March 2, 2005 with Scott Pope, Progressive Investment Management 90 Source: Norm Thompson Outfitters. Green Power Partnership.” Environmental Protection Agency. 15 February 2005. http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/partners/partners/normthompsonoutfitters.htm Manufacturing Nike Nike is the world’s most competitive sports and fitness company employing 23,000 people worldwide. The World Headquarters is in Beaverton, Oregon but the Pacific Northwest is Nike’s hometown with their business spreading around the globe. Nike is working to reduce emissions not just from Nike-owned facilities, but eventually from contract factories and processes throughout their supply chain. To do this effectively, Nike has found it helpful to rely on partners in the environmental community. 1) World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Climate Saver's Program - Much of the work on climate change unfolds in the context of Nike’s relationship with World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and its Climate Savers program, which they joined in 2001. Working together, Nike has established a set of short- and mid-term goals, including the following: a. Reduce GHG emissions from Nike-owned facilities larger than 20,000 sq. ft. (1860 m2) and business air travel by 13% below 1998 levels by the end of 2005. b. Determine baselines for GHG emissions from contract manufacturing facilities producing Nike-branded footwear and apparel. c. Determine baselines for our GHG emissions from logistics encompassing the movement of finished products to customer warehouses. 2) Business for Social Responsibility’s (BSR) Clean Cargo Project – Nike works closely with Business for Social Responsibility (BSR), as a charter member of their "Clean Cargo" project. In November 2003, Clean Cargo project members released the Clean Cargo Environmental Performance Survey (EPS), a new information tool that will help gauge environmental management performance and address the environmental impacts of ocean-going shipping. To learn more about the Environmental Performance Survey, go to www.bsr.org/sustainabletransport. Nike is also participating in a companion group at BSR called "Green Freight" which applies a similar approach to the movement of products via ground transportation within the United States. 3) Government Programs in the US - At Nike’s world headquarters in Oregon, they continue to reduce the percentage of employees who drive alone to work. In 2001, their drive-alone rate was 76%, a drop of 22% from their first measurements in 1992. Nike’s USA Delivery organization has a voluntary agreement with the EPA focusing on ground transportation, called the SmartWay program. Nike and other SmartWay partners have agreed to work with the EPA to develop performance measures or goals to improve air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, save fuel, and protect public health. 91 Using an innovative mechanism devised by the Oregon Office of Energy, Nike is redirecting $1 million of its state income tax liability directly to Oregon public schools. The Business Energy Tax Credit (BETC) reduces tax bills for companies that invest in energy-saving projects; the reductions are meant to offset some of the higher initial costs of a more efficient system. In 2002, Nike began giving what would have been state taxes directly to schools, paying for 27% of an energy-efficiency upgrade in schools across the state. Schools get improved learning environments and reduced operating costs, and Nike gets to dedicate a portion of its state taxes to help schools. 4) Eco-Class Program - Employees in the United States who travel for Nike business have the option of choosing Delta Air Lines to allocate a portion of their ticket cost to a fund established by Nike and Delta Air Lines. The Eco-Class fund is aimed at mitigating the annual climate impact of Nike's air travel on Delta flights by offsetting the equivalent carbon emissions. Eco-Class began in 2001, with the first fund enabling a local middle school near Nike's world headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon to change its fuel source from oil to natural gas. In 2002 and 2003, the Eco-Class funds were donated to The Climate Trust, a Portland, Oregon-based non-profit organization committed to reducing greenhouse gas levels through a portfolio of projects aimed at offsetting carbon emissions. In the future, Nike Travel hopes to expand on the Eco-Class program's success by growing Nike's portfolio of environmental travel partners to include other preferred suppliers. Source: “Environment: Climate Impact.” Nikebiz. January 2004. http://www.nike.com/nikebiz/nikebiz.jhtml?page=27&cat=climate Baxter International Inc. Baxter International Inc. is a global health-care company that, through its subsidiaries assists health-care professionals and their patients with treatment of complex medical conditions including hemophilia, immune disorders, kidney disease, cancer, trauma and other conditions. Baxter is a member of the Business Environmental Leadership Council (BELC) of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, which commits to taking action to address climate change. Essentially all of Baxter’s company-controlled GHG emissions in 2003 were comprised of carbon dioxide that is related to energy usage. The company’s energy conservation activities to improve facility energy efficiency are a key component of Baxter’s GHG management strategy. In addition, Baxter is expanding the use of green building concepts, considering CO2 emission rates of purchased power, evaluating certain renewable energy technologies, piloting certain solar installations and participating in a number of national and international climate organizations. In addition to being a member of BELC, Baxter is also a founding member of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). Baxter became a member of CCX on Jan. 16, 2003. CCX is the first U.S. private, voluntary program designed to allow members to cap and trade their GHG emissions. In trading emission credits, participating companies that cost-effectively reduce their emissions below their target can sell those extra reductions as credits to companies that are not