Changes in the Eighth Edition of the Ogden Tables for Personal Injury Claims, Study notes of Law

Download Changes in the Eighth Edition of the Ogden Tables for Personal Injury Claims and more Study notes Law in PDF only on Docsity! D E A N S C O U R T C H A M B E R S The Eighth Edition of the Ogden Tables The eighth edition of the Ogden Tables was released on Friday, some 9 years after the publication of the seventh edition. This paper summarises the changes introduced in the new edition and considers the likely effect on claims for future losses. The Main Changes The main changes are as follows: 1. the new tables provide multipliers based on projected mortality rates derived from the most recent, 2018-based projections which were published in December 2019. 2. a new table has been published in Excel format which enables the calculation of multipliers between any two given ages. 3. new tables are added to calculate multipliers for loss of earnings to pension ages 68 and 80, and for loss of pension commencing at those ages. 4. there are new tables A-D containing reduction factors for contingencies other than mortality and more extensive guidance on the application of those tables and when it is appropriate to depart from them. 5. the expanded explanatory notes have also been updated to assist with the interpolation of multipliers, the application of the tables to fatal accident claims (in light of Knauer v Ministry of Justice [2016] UKSC 9) and the selection of a suitable index for periodical payment orders. There is a new Section C dealing with pension loss claims. Multipliers based on the 2018 mortality rates As the introduction to the new tables points out, the expectations of life underpinning these tables are lower than in the previous edition. This is said to reflect the lower decreases in 1 mortality than previously projected and more pessimistic assumptions adopted by the ONS regarding the future rates of improvement of mortality at some ages over the next few years. The assumptions do not of course take into account the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on future mortality. The technical note prepared by the Government Actuary’s Department points out that the full impact of the pandemic is not known and will remain uncertain until further evidence has been established. Whilst the pandemic is likely to have an effect on mortality in the short term, it does not necessarily follow that there will be a long-term effect on mortality rates. The note also indicates that a new edition of the tables will be produced in the next 4 or 5 years, at which time better evidence is likely to be available on which to consider the effect of the pandemic. We attach a table comparing the multipliers produced by the seventh and eighth editions of the tables. It can be seen that there is a general reduction in multipliers at all ages in tables 1 and 2. Earnings multipliers have very slightly increased. For example, the life multiplier for a claimant aged 25 is reduced by 1.61% in the case of a male and 2.95% in the case of a female. The New Excel Tables The additional tables produced in Excel format permit the calculation of multipliers from one age to another, using the same mortality rates and other assumptions used in the main tables and at 3 different discount rates (-0.75%, -0.25% and 0%). This should make life easier where the claimant has an unusual retirement age and in other cases where interpolation between tables would have been required, and also for the calculation of split multipliers. The Introduction stresses that these additional tables will usually provide more accurate results than methods previously used. Retirement at 68 or 80 In addition, new tables have been introduced for calculating loss of earnings and pension loss for claimants expected to retire at age 68 (which will be the state pension age for many claimants) and at age 80. 2 Age at Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change date of trial 0 100.10 98.93 -1.17% 104.54 102.08 -2.35% 1 99.23 97.90 -1.34% 103.60 101.01 -2.50% 2 97.86 96.56 -1.33% 102.23 99.67 -2.50% 3 96.49 95.19 -1.35% 100.86 98.31 -2.53% 4 95.11 93.83 -1.35% 99.48 96.96 -2.53% 5 93.74 92.47 -1.35% 98.11 95.61 -2.55% 6 92.36 91.11 -1.35% 96.74 94.26 -2.56% 7 90.99 89.76 -1.35% 95.37 92.92 -2.57% 8 89.62 88.40 -1.36% 94.01 91.57 -2.60% 9 88.26 87.05 -1.37% 92.64 90.23 -2.60% 10 86.89 85.71 -1.36% 91.28 88.90 -2.61% 11 85.53 84.36 -1.37% 89.93 87.56 -2.64% 12 84.17 83.02 -1.37% 88.58 86.23 -2.65% 13 82.82 81.68 -1.38% 87.23 84.91 -2.66% 14 81.48 80.35 -1.39% 85.88 83.59 -2.67% 15 80.14 79.02 -1.40% 84.54 82.27 -2.69% 16 78.80 77.70 -1.40% 83.21 80.95 -2.72% 50.81 51.03 0.43% 51.41 51.45 0.08% 17 77.48 76.38 -1.42% 81.88 79.65 -2.72% 49.68 49.90 0.44% 50.28 50.32 0.08% 18 76.16 75.07 -1.43% 80.56 78.34 -2.76% 48.56 48.77 0.43% 49.15 49.20 0.10% 19 74.86 73.76 -1.47% 79.24 77.04 -2.78% 47.45 47.65 0.42% 48.03 48.07 0.08% 20 73.56 72.46 -1.50% 77.94 75.75 -2.81% 46.34 46.53 0.41% 46.91 46.95 0.09% 21 72.27 71.17 -1.52% 76.63 74.45 -2.84% 45.23 45.42 0.42% 45.80 45.84 0.09% 22 70.98 69.89 -1.54% 75.33 73.17 -2.87% 44.12 44.31 0.43% 44.69 44.72 0.07% 23 69.69 68.60 -1.56% 74.02 71.88 -2.89% 43.02 43.20 0.42% 43.58 43.61 0.07% 24 68.41 67.33 -1.58% 72.72 70.60 -2.92% 41.92 42.10 0.43% 42.47 42.51 0.09% 25 67.13 66.05 -1.61% 71.43 69.32 -2.95% 40.83 41.00 0.42% 41.37 41.40 0.07% 26 65.86 64.78 -1.64% 70.14 68.05 -2.98% 39.74 39.90 0.40% 40.27 40.30 0.07% 27 64.60 63.52 -1.67% 68.86 66.78 -3.02% 38.65 38.80 0.39% 39.17 39.20 0.08% 28 63.34 62.26 -1.71% 67.58 65.52 -3.05% 37.57 37.71 0.37% 38.08 38.11 0.08% 29 62.08 61.00 -1.74% 66.30 64.26 -3.08% 36.48 36.63 0.41% 36.99 37.02 0.08% 30 60.83 59.75 -1.78% 65.03 63.00 -3.12% 35.41 35.55 0.40% 35.90 35.93 0.08% 31 59.59 58.51 -1.81% 63.77 61.75 -3.17% 34.34 34.47 0.38% 34.82 34.85 0.09% 32 58.37 57.28 -1.87% 62.52 60.51 -3.21% 33.27 33.40 0.39% 33.74 33.77 0.09% 33 57.15 56.05 -1.92% 61.27 59.27 -3.26% 32.22 32.33 0.34% 32.66 32.69 0.09% 34 55.94 54.82 -2.00% 60.02 58.04 -3.30% 31.16 31.26 0.32% 31.59 31.62 0.09% 35 54.73 53.61 -2.05% 58.78 56.81 -3.35% 30.11 30.20 0.30% 30.52 30.55 0.10% 36 53.53 52.40 -2.11% 57.54 55.59 -3.39% 29.06 29.15 0.31% 29.45 29.49 0.14% 37 52.34 51.19 -2.20% 56.31 54.37 -3.45% 28.02 28.09 0.25% 28.39 28.43 0.14% 38 51.14 50.00 -2.23% 55.08 53.16 -3.49% 26.97 27.05 0.30% 27.33 27.37 0.15% 39 49.95 48.81 -2.28% 53.86 51.95 -3.55% 25.93 26.00 0.27% 26.28 26.32 0.15% 40 48.76 47.63 -2.32% 52.64 50.75 -3.59% 24.89 24.97 0.32% 25.23 25.27 0.16% 41 47.58 46.46 -2.35% 51.43 49.56 -3.64% 23.86 23.93 0.29% 24.18 24.22 0.17% 42 46.41 45.30 -2.39% 50.23 48.37 -3.70% 22.83 22.90 0.31% 23.13 23.18 0.22% 43 45.24 44.14 -2.43% 49.03 47.19 -3.75% 21.80 21.88 0.37% 22.09 22.14 0.23% 44 44.08 42.99 -2.47% 47.84 46.01 -3.83% 20.78 20.86 0.38% 21.06 21.10 0.19% 45 42.93 41.85 -2.52% 46.66 44.84 -3.90% 19.76 19.84 0.40% 20.02 20.07 0.25% 46 41.79 40.71 -2.58% 45.48 43.68 -3.96% 18.74 18.83 0.48% 18.99 19.04 0.26% 47 40.65 39.59 -2.61% 44.31 42.52 -4.04% 17.73 17.82 0.51% 17.97 18.02 0.28% 48 39.52 38.46 -2.68% 43.16 41.37 -4.15% 16.73 16.81 0.48% 16.95 16.99 0.24% 49 38.40 37.35 -2.73% 42.01 40.22 -4.26% 15.72 15.81 0.57% 15.93 15.97 0.25% 50 37.30 36.24 -2.84% 40.88 39.09 -4.38% 14.73 14.81 0.54% 14.92 14.96 0.27% 51 36.20 35.14 -2.93% 39.75 37.96 -4.50% 13.73 13.81 0.58% 13.91 13.95 0.29% 52 35.13 34.05 -3.07% 38.62 36.84 -4.61% 12.74 12.81 0.55% 12.91 12.94 0.23% 53 34.06 32.96 -3.23% 37.51 35.72 -4.77% 11.76 11.82 0.51% 11.91 11.93 0.17% 54 33.01 31.89 -3.39% 36.41 34.62 -4.92% 10.78 10.83 0.46% 10.91 10.93 0.18% 55 31.98 30.82 -3.63% 35.33 33.53 -5.09% 9.80 9.84 0.41% 9.91 9.93 0.20% 56 30.96 29.77 -3.84% 34.25 32.44 -5.28% 8.83 8.86 0.34% 8.92 8.94 0.22% Comparison between Ogden 7 & Ogden 8 Multipliers Stephen Grime QC and Richard Whitehall 21 July 2020 Multipliers for pecuniary loss for life (males) Multipliers for pecuniary loss for life (females) Multipliers for loss of earnings to pension age 65 (males) Multipliers for loss of earnings to pension age 65 (females) Table 1 Table 2 Table 9 Table 10 5 Age at Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change Ogden 7 Ogden 8 Change date of trial Multipliers for pecuniary loss for life (males) Multipliers for pecuniary loss for life (females) Multipliers for loss of earnings to pension age 65 (males) Multipliers for loss of earnings to pension age 65 (females) Table 1 Table 2 Table 9 Table 10 57 29.95 28.72 -4.11% 33.18 31.37 -5.46% 7.85 7.87 0.25% 7.93 7.94 0.13% 58 28.95 27.69 -4.35% 32.12 30.30 -5.67% 6.87 6.89 0.29% 6.94 6.95 0.14% 59 27.95 26.68 -4.54% 31.06 29.25 -5.83% 5.90 5.91 0.17% 5.95 5.96 0.17% 60 26.95 25.68 -4.71% 30.00 28.20 -6.00% 4.92 4.93 0.20% 4.96 4.97 0.20% 61 25.95 24.69 -4.86% 28.94 27.17 -6.12% 3.94 3.95 0.25% 3.97 3.98 0.25% 62 24.97 23.72 -5.01% 27.90 26.15 -6.27% 2.96 2.97 0.34% 2.98 2.98 0.00% 63 24.01 22.76 -5.21% 26.86 25.14 -6.40% 1.98 1.99 0.51% 1.99 1.99 0.00% 64 23.06 21.81 -5.42% 25.85 24.14 -6.62% 1.00 1.00 0.00% 1.00 1.00 0.00% 65 22.14 20.88 -5.69% 24.85 23.15 -6.84% 66 21.24 19.97 -5.98% 23.88 22.17 -7.16% 67 20.36 19.07 -6.34% 22.93 21.21 -7.50% 68 19.50 18.19 -6.72% 21.99 20.26 -7.87% 69 18.65 17.33 -7.08% 21.06 19.33 -8.21% 70 17.81 16.48 -7.47% 20.14 18.41 -8.59% 71 16.97 15.64 -7.84% 19.22 17.50 -8.95% 72 16.13 14.83 -8.06% 18.29 16.62 -9.13% 73 15.29 14.03 -8.24% 17.35 15.75 -9.22% 74 14.44 13.26 -8.17% 16.40 14.90 -9.15% 75 13.59 12.50 -8.02% 15.45 14.07 -8.93% 76 12.75 11.77 -7.69% 14.50 13.27 -8.48% 77 11.93 11.05 -7.38% 13.57 12.48 -8.03% 78 11.14 10.36 -7.00% 12.66 11.72 -7.42% 79 10.38 9.70 -6.55% 11.79 10.98 -6.87% 80 9.65 9.06 -6.11% 10.97 10.27 -6.38% 81 8.97 8.45 -5.80% 10.19 9.58 -5.99% 82 8.35 7.86 -5.87% 9.46 8.92 -5.71% 83 7.76 7.31 -5.80% 8.79 8.28 -5.80% 84 7.22 6.78 -6.09% 8.15 7.68 -5.77% 85 6.71 6.28 -6.41% 7.55 7.10 -5.96% 86 6.23 5.82 -6.58% 6.98 6.55 -6.16% 87 5.77 5.37 -6.93% 6.43 6.03 -6.22% 88 5.33 4.96 -6.94% 5.91 5.55 -6.09% 89 4.90 4.57 -6.73% 5.42 5.10 -5.90% 90 4.51 4.21 -6.65% 4.95 4.68 -5.45% 91 4.14 3.88 -6.28% 4.51 4.30 -4.66% 92 3.79 3.57 -5.80% 4.11 3.95 -3.89% 93 3.46 3.29 -4.91% 3.75 3.63 -3.20% 94 3.18 3.03 -4.72% 3.43 3.34 -2.62% 95 2.93 2.80 -4.44% 3.16 3.08 -2.53% 96 2.71 2.58 -4.80% 2.93 2.84 -3.07% 97 2.52 2.38 -5.56% 2.72 2.61 -4.04% 98 2.35 2.20 -6.38% 2.53 2.40 -5.14% 99 2.19 2.04 -6.85% 2.36 2.21 -6.36% 100 2.05 1.89 -7.80% 2.19 2.04 -6.85% 6