Decision Making - Cognitive Psychology - Lecture Slides, Slides of Cognitive Psychology

Download Decision Making - Cognitive Psychology - Lecture Slides and more Slides Cognitive Psychology in PDF only on Docsity! Decision Making and Reasoning Docsity.com Outline 1. Judgment and Decision Making 1. Classical Decision Theory 2. Satisficing 3. Elimination by Aspects 4. Heuristics and Biases 2. Deductive Reasoning 1. Conditional Reasoning 3. Inductive Reasoning Docsity.com 1. Judgment and Decision Making 1. Classical Decision Theory • This theory is based on the belief that people seek to reach well-reasoned decisions based on – Consideration of all possible known alternatives – Use of a maximum amount of available information – Careful weighing of costs and benefits and calculation of probability – A maximum degree of sound reasoning • However, human decision making is more complex than even this modified theory implies Docsity.com 1. Judgment and Decision Making 2. Satisficing • We humans are not entirely and boundlessly rational in making decisions • Bounded rationality – We are rational, but within limits • Satisficing – We do not consider all possible options and then carefully compute which of the entire universe of options will maximize our gains and minimize our losses – Rather, we consider options one by one, and then we select an option as soon as we find one that is satisfactory or just good enough to meet our minimum level of acceptability Docsity.com 1. Judgment and Decision Making 3. Elimination by Aspects • We sometimes use a different strategy when faced with far more alternatives than we feel that we reasonably can consider in the time we have available • Elimination by aspects – We focus on one aspect (attribute) of the various options, and we form a minimum criterion for that aspect – We then eliminate all options that do not meet that criterion Docsity.com 1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases • Representativeness – When we use the heuristic of representativeness, in which we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to • (1) how obviously it is similar to or representative of the population from which it is derived • (2) the degree to which it reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated • Example on the previous slide – First birth order is considered to be more representative of the number of females and males in the population – However, either birth order is equally likely to occur by chance Docsity.com ? Are there more words in the English language that begin with the letter R or that have R as their third letter? Docsity.com ? • Calculate in your head the answer to the following problem: 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 Docsity.com 1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases • Overconfidence – And individual’s overvaluation of her or his own skills, knowledge, or judgments – People tend to overestimate the accuracy of their judgments – Example: • When people were 100% confident in their answers, they were right only 80% of the time Docsity.com 2. Deductive Reasoning • Proposition – An assertion, which may be either true of false • Premise – Propositions about which arguments are made Docsity.com 2. Deductive Reasoning 1. Conditional Reasoning • The reasoner must draw a conclusion based on an if-then proposition • Deductive validity – Does not equate with truth – You can reach deductively valid conclusions that are completely untrue with respect to the world – People are more likely mistakenly to accept an illogical argument as logical if the conclusion is factually true Docsity.com 2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning • Syllogisms – Are deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from two premises – All syllogisms comprise a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion Docsity.com 2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning • Linear Syllogisms – The relationship among the terms is linear, involving a quantitative or qualitative comparison – Example • You are smarter than your best friend. • Your best friend is smarter than your roommate. • Which of you is the smartest? Docsity.com 2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning • Categorical Syllogisms – Comprise of two premises and a conclusion – The premises state something about the category memberships of the terms – Example: • All cognitive psychologists are pianists. • All pianists are athletes. • Therefore, all cognitive psychologists are athletes. Docsity.com