Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making - Cognitive Psychology - Lecture Slides, Slides of Cognitive Psychology

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Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making Chapter 12 Docsity.com Decision Making heuristics Kahneman and Tversky • proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making • the same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray Docsity.com Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Sample Size and Representativeness • a large sample is statistically more likely to reflect the true proportions in a population than a small sample • small-sample fallacy Docsity.com Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Base Rate and Representativeness base rate—how often an item occurs in the population base-rate fallacy—emphasize representativeness and underemphasize important information about base rates Docsity.com Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Base Rate and Representativeness Kahneman and Tversky—engineers and lawyers study Bayes' theorem—judgments should be influenced by two factors: the base rate and the likelihood ratio likelihood ratio—whether the description is more likely to apply to Population A or Population B Docsity.com Conjunction Fallacy Figure 12.1 The Influence of Type of Statement and Level of Statistical Sophistication on Likelihood Rankings. Low numbers on the ranking indicate that people think the event is more likely (an incorrect decision). Docsity.com Decision Making The Availability Heuristic availability heuristic—estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples true frequency "contaminated" by recency and familiarity Docsity.com “Contaminants” 1. Recency 2. Familiarity Estimated frequency ‘True frequency Availability |__| Decision Making The Availability Heuristic The Recognition Heuristic when comparing the relative frequency of two categories, if you recognize one category and not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency generally leads to an accurate decision Docsity.com Decision Making The Availability Heuristic Illusory Correlation and Availability illusory correlation—people believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no real evidence for this relationship stereotypes social cognition approach—stereotypes are the result of normal cognitive processes; motivational factors are less relevant Docsity.com Decision Making The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic • when making an estimate, we begin with a first approximation (anchor) and then we make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information • people rely too heavily on the anchor and their adjustments are too small Docsity.com Decision Making The Framing Effect framing effect—the outcome of a decision can be influenced by: (1) the background context of the choice and (2) the way in which a question is worded Background Information and the Framing Effect Kahneman and Tversky (1984)—lost ticket/lost $20 study Docsity.com Decision Making The Framing Effect The Wording of a Question and the Framing Effect people distracted by surface structure of the questions Tversky and Kahneman (1981)—"lives saved"/"lives lost" study "lives saved" question led to more "risk averse" choices "lives lost" question led to more "risk taking" choices Docsity.com Decision Making The Framing Effect The Wording of a Question and the Framing Effect prospect theory 1. When dealing with possible gains (for example, lives saved), people tend to avoid risks. 2. When dealing with possible losses (for example, lives lost), people tend to seek risks. Docsity.com Decision Making In Depth: Overconfidence in Decisions Overconfidence in Political Decision Making war decisions failure to think systematically about the risks involved each side tends to overestimate its own chances of success politicians overconfident that their data are accurate Tactical Decision Making Under Stress crystal-ball technique Docsity.com Decision Making In Depth: Overconfidence in Decisions Students' Overconfidence About Completing Projects on Time planning fallacy—underestimate amount of time (or money) required to complete a project; also estimate the task will be relatively easy to complete Docsity.com Decision Making In Depth: Overconfidence in Decisions Reasons for Overconfidence 1. People are often unaware that their knowledge is based on very tenuous and uncertain assumptions and on information from unreliable or inappropriate sources. 2. Examples confirming our hypotheses are readily available, whereas we resist searching for counterexamples Docsity.com Decision Making In Depth: Overconfidence in Decisions my-side bias—overconfidence that one's own view is correct in a confrontational situation; often results in conflict Docsity.com Decision Making The Hindsight Bias hindsight—judgments about events that already happened in the past hindsight bias—judging an event as inevitable, after the event has already happened; overconfidence that we could have predicted the outcome in advance Docsity.com Decision Making The Hindsight Bias Research About the Hindsight Bias Carli (1999)—judgments about people; Barbara/Jack study • happy vs. tragic ending • both groups confident that they could have predicted ending • memory errors consistent with outcome • "blame the victim" Docsity.com Decision Making Current Perspectives on Decision Making Girgerenzer and colleagues people are not perfectly rational decision makers, but people can do relatively well when they are given a fair chance ecological rationality—how people create a wide variety of heuristics to help them make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world default heuristic—if there is a default option, people will choose it Docsity.com Decision Making Current Perspectives on Decision Making Kahneman and colleagues attribute substitution—when asked to make a judgment, but you don't know the answer, substitute an answer to a similar but easier question Docsity.com Decision Making Current Perspectives on Decision Making Both approaches suggest that decision-making heuristics generally serve us well in the real world. We can become more effective decision makers by realizing the limitations of these important strategies. Docsity.com