Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Implications, Exams of Health sciences

Download Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Implications and more Exams Health sciences in PDF only on Docsity! Earth’s Changing Climate: What’s in Store for the Future? Saturday Morning Physics 21 April 2007 Henry N. Pollack Geological Sciences University of Michigan The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) An entity of the United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization For more background on the IPCC history and process visit: www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html Der Rhonegletscher tm: Jahre 1850 Furka. Hétel Belvedére und Rhonegletscher. f fet Pu; 4 ; 4 , by pork 7 te? FN A 7 Rhone Glacier Summer Melting of Greenland Ice 1992 2002 2005 Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005 “One of the warning signs that a dangerous warming trend is underway in Antarctica will be the breakup of ice shelves on both coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula, starting with the northernmost and extending gradually southward.” John Mercer, Antarctic scientist, 1978 The 2007 IPCC Assessment “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.” What causes climate change? Natural • Solar variability • Volcanic activity • Internal variability (El Nino, NAO) Anthropogenic • Land-use (albedo and carbon cycle) changes • Aerosols from burning of fossil fuels, biomass • Greenhouse gases Smoke from fires in Guatemala and Mexico (May 14, 1998) CO, CONCENTRATION (PPM) CO, LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration BEC EKA E TATE PEPE TPE TEEPE eT TTT Eee ener rr ry hil ny 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345. 340 335 330 325 320 ANY. 315 punt FO Hb dtl 1958 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 TPE PEPPER ETT TTT PIT PTT TPP PET YT ETT Posed bettie beeerdeviel Lu YEAR Anomalies from 1890-1919 (°C) 2 oo 2 o o wo oS ° o wo Global Average Temperature 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 l Observations (Natural) volc+solar (Anthropogenic + Natural) volc+solar+ghg+so4 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 The Evolving IPCC Assessment • 1990 “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.” • 1995 “The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.” • 2001 “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” • 2007 “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely (90% probability) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Consequences of Climate Change • Warmer planet • Higher sea levels • More, or more intense, extreme weather events, floods and droughts • Eco-zone shifts • Ocean acidification A8& | WORLD 11,435 die in France from excessive heat Other European countries report death tolls only in the hundreds BY JOHN LEICESTER The Associated Press PARIS = France's first compre- hensive tally of the searing heat wave stirred fresh outrage Fri- day when the government re- vealed that an alarming 11,435 people had died ~ far beyond its initial estimates. The death toll - some 4,000 more than died in traffic acci- dents in France all last year - fueled accusations that the cen- ter-right government reacted too slowly. Many victims were elderly, dying alone at home or in overwhelmed hospitals and nursing homes. “It's unacceptable that in our era, so many elderly people died in such conditions,” Communist lawmaker Alain Bocquet said. Other European govern- ments have estimated hundreds of deaths, but none on France’s seale. French critics have blamed understaffing at hospi- tals and retirement homes, Au- gust vacationers who left elder- ly relatives unattended, govern- ‘It's unacceptable that in our era, so many elderly people died in such conditions.’ Alain Bocquet, Communist lawmaker ment inaction and failures in France’s once widely respected health system. A deputy mayor of Paris, Yves Contassot, said the health min- ister should resign out “of re- spect for the families of the vic tims.” “We can’t exonerate the gov- ernment for its lack of activity,” he said. From Aug. 1 to Aug. 15, when much of Europe baked in record temperatures, France saw an average 762 more deaths each day than normal, according to the Health Ministry figures. Health Minister Jean-Fran- cois Mattei, who is resisting calls from opposition lawmak- ers to resign, released the toll in a statement and called it “proyi- sional.” He did not attribute the deaths directly to heat, although he noted that “the human dra- ma linked to the heat wave hit the weakest people in our socie- But Gilles Brucker, director of the Health Surveillance Insti- tute, which calculated the toll for Mattei’s ministry, said heat clearly was to blame. Franee normally could have expected 20,630 deaths in the first half of August, but this year recorded 32,065, Brucker said in an interview with Associated Press Television News. “The excess mortality — a fig- ure of 11,435 deaths — is on the face of it attributable to heat," he said. “No other phenomenon can explain these excess deaths.” ‘The widespread lack of air con- ditioning and the fact that few people in usually temperate cities like Paris are accustomed to such extremes made things worse, Consequences of Climate Change • Warmer planet • Higher sea levels • More, or more intense, extreme weather events, floods and droughts • Eco-zone shifts • Ocean acidification monthly) ie ee i} il ALA E fe — o > o at o) 0 Y) Cc © o = -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1910 1930 1950. 1970 1990 Year i iy x 3 i} 7) 2 = rs iy fe > 3 ® o ct £ aS} cc < 3 2 a a Ww - 2 3 a > rn 4 t 3 Q 8 £ i} eS ry “It is very difficult for someone living in the United States to grasp the fact that if sea level rises just a few feet a whole nation will disappear.” --- Ben Graham, Republic of the Marshall Islands IPCC disclaimer and caveat about sea-level rise in the 21st century: “Model-based estimates of sea-level rise exclude rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.” Photo: Roger J. Braithwaite, University of Manchester School of Geology West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland Consequences of Climate Change • Warmer planet • Higher sea levels • More, or more intense, extreme weather events, floods and droughts • Eco-zone shifts • Ocean acidification AP Photo/Dietmar Stiplovsek Hurricane intensity and duration increase with sea-surface temperature “…major storms spinning in both the Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have increased in duration and intensity by about 50%.” MIT Study, July 2005 Katrina Wea tier anne pee pS ote 2004 ; & " ie é  GLOBAL WARMING TRAFFIC CoP “This is a very serious problem, and the longer we wait to fix it, the more difficult it will be. This is not something we should pass on to the next generation to face.” President George W. Bush February 2005 Elements of a climate change policy Move beyond denial Eschew wishful thinking -- no silver bullets • Energy efficiency and conservation • Alternative energy development • Carbon capture and sequestration • Slowing population growth • Adaptation to a changing world U.S. Stabilization 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 C ar bo n em itt ed (G tp er y ea r) 2.6 Electricity end-use efficiency Power generation efficiency Passenger vehicle efficiency Other transport efficiency Renewables CCS and supply efficiency 1.8 0.9 After Pacala and Socolow, 2004; ARI CarBen3 Spreadsheetfter acala a c l , 2004; I ar e 3 rea s eet Stabilization “Wedges” for the USA 2010 - 2050 • Cut electricity use in homes, offices and stores by 25% • Increase fuel economy of 500 million cars from 30 to 60 miles per gallon • Drive 500 million cars 5,000 fewer miles per year • Drive 500 million cars on ethanol (using 1/6 of cropland) • Add 100 new nuclear power plants to displace coal • Increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal • Increase solar power 700-fold to displace coal • Install CCS at 200 large coal-fired power plants • Replace 350 large coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants “This is a time period where environmental improvement is going to lead toward profitability. This is not a hobby to make people feel good.” Jeffrey Immelt, Chairman and CEO, General Electric “What started as an effort to address our carbon footprint has turned out financially to be a very good thing.” Linda Fisher, VP for Environment, Health and Safety, DuPont “This used to be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming … We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce greenhouse gases as quickly as it can.” Lee Scott, Chairman and CEO, Wal-Mart Weather-related insurance losses in the USA “We’d be out of our minds if we wrote weather insurance on the opinion that global warming would have no effect at all.” --- Warren Buffett, CEO Berkshire Hathaway (ppmv) on co. 3607 340 3207 300 280, 260- 240 220 200 L 1 anthropogenic co, —350 ‘ -300 —250 -200 -150 Age (kyr BP) 1 on 1 oO b & M A Temperature (K)