EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, Lecture notes of Construction

Download EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and more Lecture notes Construction in PDF only on Docsity! Summary (Master Plan) S - 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Part I : Master Plan) CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Authority This Study on Comprehensive Disaster Prevention around Mayon Volcano (the Study) is being carried out in accordance with the method and procedure proposed in the Inception Report which was duly consented by the Steering Committee in reference of the stipulation of the Implementing Arrangement (I/A) for the Study on Comprehensive Disaster Prevention around Mayon Volcano agreed upon between the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) on April 7, 1998. The Final Report presents both the “Master Plan on Comprehensive Disaster Prevention around Mayon Volcano” and the results of “Feasibility Study” on the priority projects selected in the Master Plan. This Report incorporates all of the findings, survey and study results obtained through the field and home works so far made from October 1998 to October 2000. 1.2 Objectives of the Study The objectives of the Study are: 1) to formulate a master plan on comprehensive disaster prevention measures, around Mayon Volcano in the Republic of the Philippines, 2) to conduct a feasibility study for prioritized projects selected by the master plan, and 3) to transfer technical knowledge to the counterpart personnel to be dispatched by the Government of the Philippines (GOP) in the course of the Study. 1.3 Scope of the Study In accordance with the Implementing Arrangement agreed upon between both parties (GOP and JICA) and terms of reference (TOR) given by JICA, the Study centers on the “comprehensive disaster prevention”, especially focusing prevention/mitigation, forecasting and warning, awareness raising, and evacuation and resettlement. Summary (Master Plan) S - 2 The disasters to be brought by hazards of “volcanic eruption”, “flood & debris flow” and "typhoon" are focussed in the Study in compliance with the TOR. 1.4 Study Area The Study covers the surrounding areas around Mayon Volcano as shown in the Location Map. In this area, there are 7 river systems and 17 rivers including their tributaries, which are exposed to potential hazards and need disaster prevention analysis. Administratively, the Study Area concerns one city (Legazpi) and nine municipalities consisting of Bacacay, Camalig, Daraga, Guinobatan, Ligao, Malilipot, Malinao, Sto. Domingo, and Tabaco. The Study Area, which has a direct bearing on disaster prevention, is estimated to be around 908 km2 in total. 1.5 Study Organization Sixteen JICA experts listed in Table 1.1 (Main Report) have participated in the Study so far, and each of them worked together with his/her GOP counterpart personnel assigned by GOP during the Study period. The GOP established a Steering Committee composed of members from DPWH and NEDA to steer the Study, as well as a Technical Working Group, which includes members from OCD, PHIVOLCS, DSWD, DENR, TLRC, etc, to extend day-by-day cooperation to the study term. On the other hand, an Advisory Committee was set up by JICA to provide the Study Team with advice on the Study implementation. 1.6 Study Performance The Study started at the end of September 1998 with preparation of the Inception Report and is scheduled to be completed in July 2000 with submission of the Final Report. The Study is divided into Phase I for basic study and formulation of a Master Plan and Phase II for Feasibility Study on the priority projects & programs selected in the Master Plan. After submission of the Inception Report, the Study Team has prepared successively the Progress Report (1), Interim Report, Progress Report (2), Draft Final Report , and Final Report at the end of each major stage of the Study. 1.7 Logical Framework of the Study The construction of a logical framework was attempted for Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Plan as described below: Summary (Master Plan) S - 5 - Mitigation measures for hazard magnitude: Sabo facilities, River improvement and Urban drainage - Reduction of vulnerabilities: Forecasting and warning system, Evacuation system, and Relocation and resettlement. Supporting programs are conceived in order to implement disaster prevention measures more effectively and sustain the disaster prevention capacity. Besides, the economic development in the area is necessary to generate a surplus fund for strengthening disaster prevention capacity including operation and maintenance of the projects to keep its sustainability. (2) Socio-economic Development Framework and Coping Capacity In 1973, the Legazpi City was designated as a “regional administrative center” and the regional offices of each government agency have been established in Legazpi. Since then, its economic development has been remarkably enhanced. There are many projects and programs of infrastructure construction and rural area development projects being carried out and schemed by the national government, LGUs and private fund sources as well as by foreign assistance. Considering such circumstances, it is expected that GRDP in 2020 will reach the target. Assuming that tax revenue increases accordingly, the respective LGUs will be able to share the required operation and maintenance cost. Summary (Master Plan) S - 6 CHAPTER 3 PRESENT CONDITIONS AND COPING CAPACITY 3.1 Physical Setting (1) Topography and Geology Mayon Volcano is located on the Bicol Peninsula in the southern part of the Luzon Island. Its topographical profile has an extraordinary symmetry as a konide type. Its summit is 2,462m above sea level. The gradient of mountain slope varies gradually from the summit to sea level. Mayon Volcano is classified as a strata volcano, consisting of deposits formed basically by four major types of volcaniclastic ejecta: lava flow, ash fall deposition, pyroclastic flows, and lahar flows. (2) Meteorology and Hydrology According to the climatological classification in the Philippines, the eastern part of the Albay Province belongs to Type II climate and the western part belongs to Type IV. The Study Area is characterized by an indistinct dry season and a very pronounced maximum rainfall period from September to January. The long-term mean annual rainfall observed from 1961 to 1995 at Legazpi Station of PAGASA is 3,354 mm. Total number of rainy days per year in Legazpi is measured as 221 days (60%) on average. According to the data on tropical cyclones that affected the Bicol Region during the period 1987-1996, 8.4 tropical cyclones pass over the region in a year on average. Albay Province including the Study Area has an average frequency of cyclone occurrence of one per year. (3) Rivers around the Mayon Volcano The following 7 river systems with 17 rivers were studied. Three major rivers, Yawa, Quinali (A), and Quinali (B), comprise several tributaries as shown below. Summary (Master Plan) S - 7 River Systems and Rivers Related to the Study Area River System River Catchment Area (km2) River Length (km) Yawa River System Yawa 74.4 17.3 Pawa-Burabod 7.6 11.6 Budiao 7.5 11.8 Anoling 9.4 10.2 Quinali (A) River System Quirangay 9.3 9.8 Tumpa 5.7 7.8 Maninila 4.9 10.7 Masarawag 10.5 12.2 Ogsong 38.1 21.4 Nasisi 84.2 20.9 Quinali (B) River System Buang 4.5 8.3 Quinali (B) 157.8 31.1 San Vicente 9.9 13.3 Arimbay River System Arimbay 2.6 5.3 Padang River System Padang 7.6 9.3 Basud River System Basud 14.0 11.0 Bulawan River System Bulawan 15.4 11.5 (4) Eruption of Mayon Volcano and Related Hazard Mayon Volcano is one of the active volcanoes in the Bicol volcanic chain, southeast Luzon. Pyroclastic flows were frequently discharged during historic eruptions and emplaced up to 10 km away from the summit crater. The Volcano has erupted 48 times during the period from 1616 to now. The latest eruption just recently occurred in February 2000 with a series of explosions and the state of disaster was declared in the area around it. The past records on the occurrence frequencies of eruptive hazards indicate that most of eruptions initiate with the emission of ash falls and the eruption is not necessarily accompanied with dangerous pyroclastic flow and lava flow. The occurrence and visit of pyroclastic flow and lava flow are more frequent in the southern slope of the volcano as compared with its northern portion. 3.2 Socio-economic Conditions (1) Socio-economy According to the latest 1995 Census, the population of Albay Province was 1,005,255 and that of the Study Area was 672,508 or 66.9% of the provincial total. Based on the annual average growth rate of 2.33% during the period of 1990-1995, the present populations in the province and the Study Area are forecast to be 1,095,519 and 737,936, respectively. The population density of the province is Summary (Master Plan) S - 10 These ports have a vital role in the province’s trade and commerce, and as one of the growth center in the region. The activities and roles of these major ports develop a tendency to increase steadily. Legazpi Airport is the only airport in the province. The existing domestic airport facilities need to upgraded and the existing runway needs to be expanded so as to meet its increasing number of passengers and cargo volumes. Power generation and supply is an indispensable factor for regional development. Household electrification is provided by the Albay Electric Cooperative (ALECO). ALECO supplies 154,480 households in Albay Province, accounting for 82.3% of the provincial total. In the province, water is supplied with Level 3 gravity-fed or pressure-pumped system. The coverage of this Level 3 water system is estimated to be for about 39% of the total municipalities. As for the communications in relation to disaster management, the media (radio & television) and telephone play an important role, especially in preparedness (warning) and response (evacuation) phases. (4) Land Use The Albay Province has a total land area of 255,257 ha, or 2,552.6km2. The Study Area consisting of 1 city and 9 municipalities covers 1,442.3km2, which accounts for 51.6% of the provincial total. The province has a total coast length of 354km. Legend ① Agric ulture ② Forest Area ③ Fishpond ④ Commerc ial & Industrial ⑤ Idle & Vac ant ⑥ Water Ways & Road ⑦ Researc h ⑧ Residential ⑨ Parks ⑩ Sc hool ⑪ Unc lassified ⑩1.4% ⑪1.4% ⑨2.9% ⑧6.6% ⑦0.3% ⑥1.6% ⑤9.7% ④1.0% ③0.6% ②9% ①65.4% Land Classfication of the Study Area (1996) 21.9% 2.7% Coconut 49.0% Palay 26.3% O ther Crops Fiber Crops Land Class ification-Crops (1991) in Province of Albay Sources: The Provincial Profile-Province of Albay 1996 and The Census of Agriculture 1991- National Statistics Office. Summary (Master Plan) S - 11 The agricultural land is dominant in the province, 65.4% out of the total area. Coconut, palay and abaca are the major products in Albay, and these three crops occupy 78.1% of the total agricultural land, which is 55.3% of the total land of Albay. The situation of the tenure of the farmland shows a significant change in the 20 years from 1971 to 1991 as well as the number of land-owners and the land size. 12.11% Rent/ Leased 35.25% 2.29%Rent-free 2.87% O wned 47.49% Partly-owned O ther forms Land Tenure (1991)Land Tenure (1971) Rent-free 5.68% 0.43% Rent/ Leased 22.98% 32.70% O wned 38.21% O ther forms Partly-owned Sources: The Provincial Profile-Province of Albay 1996 and the Census of Agriculture 1991 – National Statistics Most of these changes and tendencies are assumed to be the influence of the Agrarian Reform and this tendency of land size and tenure is expected to continue at least until 2004 which is the target year of the accomplishment of the Agrarian Reform. Large scale land owners are few. The land owner who’s land is less than 5ha occupies 93.17%. The Province of Albay has drawn out a land use plan, entitled “Provincial Physical Framework Plan (PPFP)/Comprehensive Provincial Land Use Plan 1993- 2002.” Summary (Master Plan) S - 12 The following are the existing main issues for the land use planning. 1) Hazard Area by PHIVOLCS a. PDZ (Permanent Danger Zone): Area within 6 km-radius from the Volcano’s crater (Permanent habitation not allowed/Off-limits to everybody, once eruption becomes imminent) b. HDZ (High Danger Zone): Area between 6 km to 10 km from the Volcano’s crater (areas potentially prone to volcanic debris and mud flows) 2) Environmental Category a. Protection Land ! SEA (Severely Eroded Area): Area subjected to severe erosion ! NIPAS (National Integrated Protected Area), including the Mayon Volcano National Park ! Non-NIPAS b. Environmentally Constrained Land ! Area subject to natural hazard ! Coastal zones ! Network of Protected Areas of Agricultural Development (NPAAD) 3) Agricultural Category a. Agrarian Reform b. Food Security Plan and NPAAD c. Irrigation Project 4) Land Conversion and Expropriation According to the “Revised Rule and Regulations on the Conversion of Agricultural Lands to Non-Agricultural Uses, 1999,” the criteria of the land which can be subject to the land conversion is as follows1. a. Not irrigated area b. Not Protected Area – NIPAS c. Not classified as the Agricultural Land in the LGU’s land use plan The problem structure over the land is illustrated below. 1 500m from the national road cannot be classified as agricultural land. Summary (Master Plan) S - 15 (2) Financial System for Disaster Prevention At the national level, main budgetary source for rehabilitation, reconstruction and other works in connection with calamities is “(national) calamity fund” managed by NDCC Secretariat and released by the approval of the President. According to the NDCC data, the total amount of damages to crops and infrastructures amounted to PHP 24,967 millions in 1998. This national calamity fund consists of three uses or programs for: (a) quick response, (b) local government units, and (c) disaster preparedness. Request for calamity fund is made by disaster coordinating councils at various levels. In most cases, the calamity fund is disbursed for large scale disasters. The following table presents amount of calamity fund released and total damages caused by major disasters in the Philippines. Calamity Fund Released Year Cost of Damages (Million Pesos) （Million Pesos） Calamity Fund/Cost of Damages (%) 1996 3,113.8 907 29.1 1997 1,312.1 340 25.9 1998 24,967.0 968 3.9 Source: The Philippine Statistical Yearbook 1997 - 1999 As seen in this table, national calamity fund amounts to around a quarter of the damages by major disasters. (For 1998, damages accrued from Typhoon Loleng that struck the Philippines in October were included. Some parts of calamity fund may have been released in the following year.) Local Government Code of 1991 provides that 5% of LGU’s budget shall be earmarked each year as calamity reserve. The calamity reserve is mostly used for emergency rescue and rehabilitation. The aggregate amount of calamity reserve for Legazpi City and 9 municipalities and Albay Province was 4.2 million pesos in 1998. The amount of damage for public buildings by Typhoon Loleng was 200 millions pesos. Thus, the current appropriation of calamity reserve is not sufficient for a large-scale disaster like Typhoon Loleng. In addition to the calamity fund, LGUs are used to set aside 20% of allocated IRA as “Development Fund”. This development fund is used for infrastructure development projects in each of LGUs. (3) Infrastructure Investment Program In the “Philippine National Development Plan” or Vision for the 21st century, the Philippine Government lays an importance on the approach to the flood control Summary (Master Plan) S - 16 and drainage with two measures, namely structural and non-structural. The structural measures concern construction or rehabilitation of the dikes, levees, sand pockets, floodways, etc., while the non-structural measures are related to establishment/development of flood forecasting and warning system, flood zoning and reforestation. The public investment achievement for Bicol Region was PHP19.3 billion in 1998. The total amount for flood control and drainage was PHP170.1 million, accounting for 8.8% of the total public investment in the Region. The annual average public investment (1993-1998) for Albay Province worked out at PHP185.9 million, whereas those for flood control and drainage amounted to only PHP52.9 million or 28.5% of the total public investment while 117.8 million or 63.4% were allocated for Highways. 3.4 Sabo Facility Sabo and Flood Control Projects Based on the inventory survey, the Sabo and flood control facilities constructed so far in the17 rivers are as follows. Existing Sabo Facilities on Each River in the Study Area River Existing Facilities (Total Number and Total Length) Existing Condition Yawa Boulder Dike (7 dikes, 3,078m) Good Pawa- Burabod Spur Dike , Training Levee (13 dikes, 6,496m) , Consolidation Dam (1) Partially damaged Budiao Spur Dike , Training Levee (6 dikes, >5,135m) Partially damaged Anoling Spur Dike , Training Levee (7 dikes, 1,850m) , Ground Sill (1) Good Quirangay Spur Dike , Training Levee (10 dikes, 3,305m) , Consolidation Dam (1) Good Tumpa None No facility Maninila None No facility Masarawag Spur Dike , Training Levee (8 dikes, 1,700m) Good Ogsong Spur Dike (2 dikes, 80m) Good Nasisi Ground Sill (3 dikes, 565m) , Consolidation Dam (2) Good Buang None No facility Quinali (B) None No facility San Vicente Spur Dike (6 dikes, >770m) Need to rehabilitate Arimbay Spur Dike (8 dikes, 2,680m), Consolidation Dam (1) Good Padang Spur Dike (7 dikes, 2,340m) Partially damaged Basud Spur Dike (15 dikes, 2,913m), Consolidation Dam (1) Partially damaged Bulawan Spur Dike (9 dikes, 3,493m) , Consolidation Dam (1) Partially damaged Summary (Master Plan) S - 17 3.5 Flood Control Facility River Improvement Projects In the Re-Study of Mayon Volcano Sabo and Flood Control Project in 1983, the river improvement works were also planned and proposed for the three rivers of Quinali (A), Quinali (B), and Yawa rivers, but they were not duly implemented. The following table shows the existing river improvement works carried out by DPWH. Present Condition of River Improvement Works by DPWH River System River Name & Location Facility Name Height (m) Length (m) Date of Completion Existing Condition Yawa a. Boulder Dike 4.00 320 14 Feb. 1989 GoodYawa Legazpi City b. Boulder Dike 4.00 1,200 2 June 1991 Good c. Boulder Dike 4.00 1,250 1 Nov. 1989 Good d. Dike No. 1,2,3,4 4.00 308 N/A Partially damaged Quinali (B) San Vicente a. Boulder Dike No.1 4.00 115 22 Dec. 1990 Need to rehabilitate b. Boulder Dike No.2 4.00 115 22 Dec. 1990 Need to rehabilitate c. Spur Dike No.1 4.00 240 N/A Need to rehabilitate d. Spur Dike No.2 4.00 240 N/A Need to rehabilitate 3.6 Flood Forecasting, Warning and Evacuation (1) Forecasting and Warning In relation to improvement and strengthening of the forecasting and monitoring system, the Study focused on the following hazards: Cause of Hazard Hazards - Eruption ・ Pyroclastic flow (including ash fall) ・ Lava flow - Rainfall ・ Mud and debris flow ・ Flood ・ Inundation - Tropical depression ・ Wind The forecasting, monitoring, and issuing of warning with regard to these hazards are entrusted to the following agencies: ! Volcanic eruption (pyroclastic and lava flow) : PHIVOLCS ! Typhoon : PAGASA ! Mud and debris flow : Not assigned ! Rainfall and river water level : PAGASA Summary (Master Plan) S - 20 CHAPTER 4 CONCEIVABLE IMPROVEMENT PLAN OF COPING CAPACITY 4.1 Scenario to Realize the Per Capita GRDP Set at the Target Year of 2020 (1) Population Projection The population of the Study Area is around 700 thousand in 1995 and is forecasted to increase to more than 1 million in 2020 as a target year. The annual growth rate of the population of the Philippines is expected to be 1.75% per annum and the one of the Study Area will be 1.64% per annum. Population Projection (Unit: Person) Area Division 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Study Area 698,565 756,892 820,574 890,142 966,182 1,049,345 Albay Province 1,001,387 1,108,015 1,213,176 1,318,417 1,417,701 1,505,701 Bicol Region 4,309,488 4,755,076 4.161,007 5,541,343 5,904,788 6,207,492 The Philippines 68,349,452 76,348,114 84,241,341 91,868,309 99,015,818 105,507,209 Sources: 1. Population projection for Nation, Region and Province is based on 1995 Census. 2. JICA Study Team conducted population projection for the Study Area. Average Annual Growth Rate of Population (Unit: %) Area Division 1995/2000 2000/2005 2005/2010 2010/2015 2015/2020 1995/2020 Study Area 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.64 Albay Province 2.04 1.83 1.68 1.46 1.21 1.64 Bicol Region 1.99 1.65 1.47 1.24 1.00 1.47 The Philippines 2.24 1.99 1.75 1.41 1.28 1.75 Sources: 1. Population projection for Nation, Region and Province is based on 1995 Census. 2. JICA Study Team conducted population projection for the Study Area. (2) Outlook of Economic Structure 1) GRDP Target As agreed the Steering Committee Meeting held on March 12, 1999, the Study Team assumed that the level of per capita GRDP of the Study Area in the growth scenario by excluding NCR, which corresponds to the low growth one of three scenarios as low, medium and high, would reach to the national level of US$3,222 as a target by the year 2020. According to this scenario, GRDP of the Study Area must increase at 10.22% per annum and per capita GRDP will grow at the rate of 8.43% per annum. Summary (Master Plan) S - 21 The growth rate in the past is extremely low comparing with the target. According the estimates by the Study Team, the growth rates of GRDP and per capita GRDP of Albay Province during the period from 1995 to 1998 are 4.38% per annum and 1.96% per annum respectively. The ones of the Study Area are assumed to be the same trend. The important factors for such a low level of economic growth can be guessed to be the extremely low investment to disaster prevention in the past and not to contribute to fundamental solution for disaster prevention and, as the result, to decelerate considerably the economic growth by the development plans. This point can be easily observed from the relation among the public investment, the damages by disasters and GRDP in Albay Province including the Study Area during the recent three years (1995 to 1998). Recent Performance for Public Investment, Damages by Natural Disasters and GRDP in Albay Province and the Study Area (1993-1998) (Unit : Million Peso) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total 1. Highways 1.9 9.8 459.6 20.3 103.6 111.8 706.9 2. Flood Control and Drainage - 29.4 209.9 13.0 26.4 38.8 317.6 Public Investment 3. Water Supply - 10.5 53.2 - - - 63.7 (Albay Province) 4. Urban Infrastructure - - 2.4 - - - 2.4 5. Various Projects 0.2 7.1 17.7 - - - 24.9 Total 2.1 56.8 742.7 33.3 130.0 150.6 1,115.4 Damages (Albay Province) 77.6 215.0 2,271.0 - - 1,990.0 4,553.6 GRDP Albay Province 17,166 17,990 18,854 19,759 20,707 21,439 115,916 (at Constant 1999 Prices) The Study Area 12,636 13,242 13,878 14,544 15,242 15,781 85,324 Ratio to GRDP(%) (1) Total Public Investment Albay Province 0.0 0.3 3.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 The Study Area 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.3 (2) Investment for Flood Albay Province - 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 Control & Drainage The Study Area - 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 (3) Damages Albay Province 0.5 1.2 12.0 - - 9.3 3.9 The Study Area 0.0 0.3 16.4 - - 12.6 5.3 Notes: 1. The amounts for disaster prevention works are included in the sub-sector of "Flood Control and Drainage". 2. The amounts of damages is based on major damages caused by erruption in 1993, typhoon: "Akang" and "Garding" in 1994, "Rosing" in 1995 and "Loleng" in 1998. 3. GRDP was estimated by the JICA Study Team. Source: 1. The public investment: Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), Region-V 2. The damages: PDCC/PDMO and Survey on Calamities and Casualties by Flood and Debris Flow, Final Report, March 1999. According to the above table, the amounts of investment for the flood control including the disaster prevention and the drainage is only one third of all public investments as 317.6 million peso though 1,115.4 million peso was invested as the public investment during the six years. On the contrary, the two times of the disaster prevention investment as 706.9 million peso was invested for the highways. Looking at the ratio of the public investment Summary (Master Plan) S - 22 to GRDP, the public investment is 1% for Albay Province and 1.3% for the Study Area. The investment for the flood control and drainage are less than 1.0% both for Albay Province and the Study Area. Then it is assumed that the direct investment for the disaster prevention is far less than those of flood control and drainage. During the six years, the damages by disasters reached to 1,154.4 million peso and their ratios to GRDP is 4.0% for Albay Province and 5.3% for the Study Area. It is very clear from the above observation that the damages have increased very rapidly than the public investment, especially, the investment for flood control and drainage which ought to accelerate the disaster prevention and the economic growth and then GRDP has increased at the very low growth rate as a result. The study is made to examine how to achieve the target in accordance with the scenario as set forth in Section 3.2 (2) “Interrelation between Disaster Prevention and Economic Development.” 2) Scenario to realize the target Case without Disaster Previous Measures (Albay Province) By taking account of extremely low level of contribution to economic growth by disaster prevention works as mentioned above, the contribution ratio to economic growth of disaster prevention is extracted from the annual average growth rate of actual GRDP of Albay Province in the past. (The Study Area) GRDP growth rate by industrial origin was set for City/Municipalities in the Study Area as set for Albay Province. Case with Disaster Prevention Measure As the result of study on the relations among GRDP, investment costs for disaster prevention and disaster damage amounts in Albay Province. On the basis of these conditions mentioned above, the degree/possibility of Summary (Master Plan) S - 25 Table for GRDP Target and Achievement for the Study Area (without Disaster Prevention Policy) (Unit: Milli. Peso) Sector Agriculture Industry Service Total 1. Targeted GRDP (Low Growth Scenario) - 2005 3,178 10,859 14,326 28,363 - 2020 4,308 55,928 70,110 130,347 2. Scenario for achievable GRDP (Annual Average Growth Rate : %) - 2005 0.9 5.4 4.6 4.4 - 2020 0.9 5.1 4.6 4.4 3. Achieved GRDP - 2005 2,459 8,255 10,573 21,286 - 2020 2,798 17,371 20,652 40,821 Table for GRDP Target and Achievement for the Study Area (with Disaster Prevention Policy) (Unit: Milli. Peso) Sector Agriculture Industry Service Total 1. Targeted GRDP (Low Growth Scenario) - 2005 3,178 10,859 14,326 28,363 - 2020 4,308 55,928 70,110 130,347 2. Scenario for achievable GRDP (Annual Average Growth Rate : %) - 2005 * Natural growth 0.5 2.7 2.5 * Growth by development 3.9 6.2 6.6 8.3 * Total 4.4 8.9 9.2 Case with Industrial Development Plan and the Projects proposed in the study *Natural growth 0.5 2.7 2.5 *Growth by development 7.0 5.8 4.3 7.5 *Total 7.5 8.5 6.8 - 2020 *Natural growth 0.5 2.7 2.5 *Growth by development 4.7 8.7 9.2 10.9 *Total 5.2 11.4 11.7 3. Achieved GRDP - 2005 3,361 10,733 14,115 28,209 Case with Industrial Development Plan and the Projects proposed in the study 3,749 10,164 12,259 26,173 - 2020 6,614 59,196 74,016 139,826 Note: GRDP by Development Projects include synergy effects. Summary (Master Plan) S - 26 Per Capita GRDP to be Achievable without Disaster Prevention Measures (2005) (Unit: Peso and US$) Target (A) To be Achieved (B) (B)/(A)Disaster Prevention Measures Peso US$ Peso US$ (％) Without 25,941 673 75.1 With 34,377 892 99.5 Case with Industrial Development Plan and the Projects proposed in the study 34,565 897 31,896 827 92.3 Note: Exchange rate of peso to US$ is set up at 38.55 peso as of May 31, 1999. Per Capita GRDP to be Achievable without Disaster Prevention Measures (2020) (Unit: Peso and US$) Target (A) To be Achieved (B) (B)/(A)Disaster Prevention Measures Peso US$ Peso US$ (％) Without 124,217 3,222 38,902 1,009 31.3 With 31,514 817 133,250 3,457 107.3 Note: Exchange rate of peso to US$ is set up at 38.55 peso as of May 31, 1999. In 2005, per capita GRDP is supposed to reach its target almost 100%. The achievement ratio to the target GRDP in case of Industrial Development Plan and the projects proposed in the Study is 92.3%, which calculated to justify the reliability of achievable target. It doesn’t include the industrial production cost and the investment for the infrastructure. Target GRDP will be achieved if these investment and industrial production cost are included in calculation. In case of 2020, it is obvious that the achievement ratio to the target in case of “without disaster prevention measures” is extremely lower than the one of “with disaster prevention measures” of which the achievement ratio to the target is only 30%. In this context, it is rational to stress that the disaster prevention measures which are proposed in this Study are essential to be integrated as a part of the regional development plans to promote the sustainable development for Albay Province including the Study Area. The comprehensive disaster prevention works will trigger to promote the economic development plans proposed by this Study and the local government units (LGU), to accelerate the economic growth by synergy effects and to increase the per capita GRDP. As a result of it, the financial surplus of each LGU will be generated from increase of financial revenue. The affordability to burden the operation and maintenance cost for the projects was tentatively Summary (Master Plan) S - 27 calculated for Legazpi City and Daraga Municipality as the following table as one example On the basis of assumption that the rate of development budget to the internal revenue allotment (IRA) is 20% and the rate of the flood control budget to the development budget 30% (the average annual growth rate during the period from 1993 to 1998), Legazpi City and Daraga Municipality would be able to burden enough the operating and maintenance cost by the flood control budget in the target year of 2020 for a long-term. In the target year of 2005 for a short- term, Legazpi City would be possible to burden enough the operating and maintenance cost (12 million pesos) by its flood control budget (4 million pesos). But judging from the financial situation of Daraga Municipality that the development budget (15 million pesos) as a source of flood control budget exceeds the operating and maintenance cost by revising the allotment rate of the development budget to flood control budget or by the subsides by the national Government and/or loan from financial institution. Judging from the discussion above, it became clear that the targeted per capita GRDP is achievable and as a result of it, the economic surplus of local residents and the financial surplus of LGUs by the increase of development budget and flood control budget will make LGUs possible to burden the operating and maintenance cost of the projects. It appears that both the sustainable disaster prevention measures and economic development will be achieved. Summary Table for Financial Affordability of Legazpi City and Daraga Municipality (With Disaster Prevention Policy) (Unit: Milli. Peso) 1. Revenue of Local Government (Increase of Tax Revenue) - 2005 Legazpi City Daraga Muni. * Total Revenue (IRA+Local Tax) : 417 94 - IRA : 327 73 - Tax : 91 21 * Development Budget (29% of IRA) : 65 15 * Flood Control Budget (15% of Dvt.B.) : 10 2 - 2020 * Total Revenue (IRA+Local Tax) : 2,297 456 - IRA : 1,798 353 - Tax : 499 103 * Development Budget (29% of IRA) : 360 71 * Flood Control Budget (15% of Dvt.B.) : 54 11 2. Necessary O/M Cost for Priority Projects - 2005 : 13 12 - 2020 : 13 12 Note: O/M cost in this analysis includes Yawa River System, Sabo Project and Legazpi City Urban Drainage and Resettlement Site Development in F/S Priority Projects Summary (Master Plan) S - 30 Comparison of Three Countermeasures Characteristics Countermeasure I (C-I) Prevention & Mitigation Countermeasure II (C-II) Evacuation Countermeasure III (C-III) Relocation and/or Resettlement Basic Strategy To impede/prevent the occurrence of a disaster event and/or reduce its harmful effects on key installations or communities To remove persons from a disaster-stricken area into safer, better surroundings and conditions, and/or protect disaster-threatened persons from the full effects of the disaster To relocate and/or resettle the communities, groups or individuals living in the highly dangerous areas, where disasters occur repeatedly Typical Activities - Construction of disaster prevention infrastructure like Sabo dams, dikes, etc., and installation of forecasting and warning facilities - Enforcement of land use regulations and imple- mentation of agricultural programs to cope with disasters, etc. - Information management (forecasted & warning information) - Public cooperation & movement assistance - Preparation of evacuation centers (adequate accom- modation) - Logistic support - Arrangements for return - Construction of basic social infrastructure such as houses, roads, water & electric supply system, etc. - Community development - Livelihood support In formulating the Master Plan projects and programs, a combination of three coping strategies or countermeasures are proposed in each area, river system or river, and the projects and programs are placed in order of priority considering the disaster experiences in the past as well as respective local circumstances. (3) Supporting Programs or Indirect Countermeasures To ensure sustainable operations and management of the Master Plan projects and programs, “supporting” measures or programs are taken up and proposed as a package with the structural projects, primarily centering on institutional strengthening, appropriation of necessary funds, transmission of accurate and timely information, awareness raising, and so on. 4.3 Basic Disaster Prevention Strategies (1) Sabo Planning Basic concept for Sabo planning around Mayon Volcano is itemized as follows: ! Eruptive magnitude to be treated by a Sabo facility is assumed to be that produced by the 1984 eruption. A large-scale collapse of the volcano edifice is not assumed in this Sabo planning. ! Existing structure and alignment of Sabo facility (limited to hard and strong structure only) will be considered and utilized positively in this planning. Summary (Master Plan) S - 31 ! Natural undulation on slope landform will be considered. For example, lava flow mound can be utilized as natural barrier to perform in part of a large dike. ! Sabo planning will adapt to changeable river course, landform changes and increase of runoff volume by the future eruption. ! Changeable channel course will develop on fan surface. ! New channel will form by deposition of pyroclastic flow or lave flow. Selection criteria and protection area for Sabo planning for each river is summarized as follows: Criteria and Protected Area for Sabo Planning River Area and Object to be Protected Criteria for Sabo Planning Yawa River System Legazpi City area, Yawa main river, railway, Cagsawa ruins, National road All debris material must be trapped by structure measure in upstream area to main river to protect efficient property in/around city area. Arimbay River No action plan since the drainage area disappeared by lava flow from the 1993 eruption Padang River & Basud River National road, Barangay There are some parallel tributaries next to target rivers. Debris material should be converged into one channel and flowed out to the ocean or deposit field safely and directly. Bulawan River National road, Malilipot Countermeasure concept for the downstream area is the same to Padang river and Basud river. On the upstream area, it is possible that one tributary of Bulawan river will capture Tabigyan river. Facility planning should protect this piracy phenomenon. San Vicente River & Buang River National road, Barangay, River improvement in plain area All debris material should be trapped by structure measure in upstream area from the national road. Or only property of Barangay should be protected by another structure. Nasisi River & Ogsong River No action plan is contemplated since protection area located far away for downstream area. Fan area should be utilized as natural retarding basin. Quinali (A) River System National road, Barangay, Paddy field, Railway Debris material should be gathered into main channel and flowed down between barangays and the paddy field safely. (2) River Improvement Planning Conditions and Criteria Planning for river improvement in the Study Area is carried out on the basis of the following conditions and criteria. Summary (Master Plan) S - 32 1) Heavy rainfall Mean annual rainfall is estimated to be 3,000 mm at lower elevation such as Legazpi and Tabaco, and 4,000-5,000 mm at higher elevation over slopes of the Mt. Mayon. Daily maximum rainfall ranges 200- 300 mm at lower elevation and 400-700 mm at higher elevation. 2) Year-round soil moisture Total number of rainy days is 221 days or 60% of the year on average in Legazpi. The relative humidity is almost constant through the year and annual mean is 83% at Legazpi. 3) Steep sloped channel The channel slope of the rivers around the Mayon Volcano is very steep. Average river bed slopes of mudflow channel and flood flow channel (such as Yawa, Quinali (A) and Quinali (B)) are 0.06-0.26 and 0.003-0.004, respectively. 4) Steep sloped drainage area The river basins are draining from the mountain top of the Mayon Volcano (EL 2,400m). Therefore, river piracy caused by mudflow events had frequently occurred, especially in the rivers of the southeast slope. Flash floods with very short duration time (25 - 130 min.) occurs in each river basin. 5) Sediment transport The river bed materials survey revealed that average particle sizes (D50) of the river bed materials are 13.0mm in the sediment flow portion and 0.4 mm in the flood flow portion. 6) Intensive land use Paddy fields are dominant land use in the flood flow portion of the rivers. In particular, the lower reaches of the Nasisi, Ogsong, Quinali (B), and San Vicente rivers are fully utilized for rice production. National road network is installed around the Mayon Volcano. The road system is passing the rivers to be considered with bridges. 7) River related facilities River improvement plan should carefully be studied taking into consideration the above river related facilities such as irrigation and drainage system and bridges in the river basins. Summary (Master Plan) S - 35 Selection of Candidates The selected candidate systems constitute the forecasting, warning and evacuation system of the proposed disaster prevention master plan. The criteria adopted to assess the candidate system are as follows: Technical reliability (accuracy in forecasting and reliability in warning) Accuracy and reliability should be sufficient for evacuation and disaster fighting activity Compliance to needs (lead time and quick response) Since the system is to furnish a reliable information for evacuation and disaster fighting activity, the system should afford sufficient lead time, and accurate and quick judgement for those activities. Availability (existing infra-structure and system) The proposed system should adapt to the existing local conditions. And the existing infrastructure and system should be availed as much as possible. OMR (OMR cost and manpower) In order to secure sustainability, OMR cost and manpower input should be within the amount that is affordable for the government. Durability (natural circumstance) The proposed system should be available in a critical circumstance. Economic aspect (cost and space) Disaster prevention reduces damage value but does not produce any positive economic value and lesser cost and space are preferable. 2) Evacuation System The residents of the Study Area are usually threatened by the following hazards: pyroclastic flow, lava flow and ash fall (due to eruption of the Mayon Volcano), flood, inundation and mud and debris flow (caused by heavy rainfall) and strong wind (due to typhoon). Hence, the Study Team has identified evacuation- oriented coping strategy as one of the possible countermeasures, which will enable the affected residents to better cope with the effects of such hazards. The strategy will involve designing evacuation centers that will consider the type of hazard that will affect the community and will ensure the safety and comfort of the evacuees during their stay there. It will also entail strengthening Summary (Master Plan) S - 36 of the present evacuation system that will be carried out based on a clear and detailed understanding of the disaster threat particularly on the part of the residents. In this case, public awareness campaign will also be given prime importance in this coping strategy. (5) Resettlement Plan In implementing the resettlement plan, the following should be taken into due consideration: a. Avoidance of enforced relocation, even though its program turned out to be feasible, b. Minimization of relocation by exploring all viable options in case that it becomes unavoidable, c. Respect and conservation to the greatest extent possible of the existing social and cultural institutions and communities of the resettlers, and d. Preparation of the detailed inventory of the affected people during social preparation period prior to the project implementation. There are two types of relocation/ resettlement to be considered in this Study. One is related to the resettlement of the people living within a 6km radius from the crater of Mayon Volcano. The other concerns the “relocation” caused by implementation of the disaster prevention projects or due to acquisition of the right-of-the way and construction of the disaster prevention facilities. The number of the people to be resettled from the 6km-radius zone is estimated to be 440 households or 2,332 residents, while that to be relocated due to implementation of the mud and debris flow project works may amount to 137 households or 726 residents. The principles for resettlement planning in the Study Area are as follows: 1) The resettlement site must be located in a safer place in terms of the land use and environmental regulations and restrictions. 2) The eligible people to be displaced should be compensated and assisted in restoring and improving their living standard. Summary (Master Plan) S - 37 3) The housing plan has to be designed to allow for the gradual expansion or improvement in the structure according to the needs, preferences, and capacity of the families. 4) In principle, resettlement of the people is to be done within the respective administrative divisions (municipality and city). 5) The resettlement site should be equipped with the following facilities to form an integrated community: housing area, electricity, drainage, water supply system, access roads, sewerage system, elementary school, day care center, chapel, etc. 6) Design standards proposed in the Master Plan Study ! Lot allocation: 120 m2 (10 m x 12 m) ! House lot: 21.7 m2 ! Strength of the house: withstanding 200km per hour wind velocity, earthquake of moderate intensity (6 Richter scale), and other similar natural hazards ! Materials/components and maintenance of the house and site: The core house will be awarded, but its maintenance will be done by residents themselves. The gradual improvement is allowed according to the needs, preferences, and capacity of the families. ! Implementation of social infrastructure and livelihood development programs as an integral part of the resettlement project 4.4 Basic Strategies for Master Planning In view of the issues identified in past disaster prevention activities and based on the results of discussions in the Steering Committee meetings, the following were adopted as basic strategies for formulating a Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Plan around Mayon Volcano in the target year of 2020. a. No deaths from any natural hazards like Mayon eruption, mud and debris flow, typhoon and flood, b. No damages to the properties from the hazards of a 20-year probable mud and debris flow and 10-year probable flood, and c. GRDP in the Study Area to reach to the national average level in 2020. The targets of the Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and its framework are illustrated in Figure S.1. EGER: FERRI ie jc: Rescn nt Commend BEY ray [7 inereopping: Coconut st [iia Po se BEB roxy ‘Yc Are 0 fo, San Ge, eto Aron ow fMpiy Boundary ef ——— Matjorttoad %, SHH Rally OL Ree TABACO BAY ‘ aie A ny ae stig Source : GIS Strvey-Land Cover Map x Aerial Photo 1982 | Aerial Photo: 1999 2 Development Plan of Mimicipality Provincial Development Plan | ICA StudyTeam COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER PREVENTION FigureS.2_ Land Use in 2020 AROUND MAYON VOLCANO IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES 0 5000m JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COPERATION AGENCY Summary (Master Plan) S - 41 The point of contact between “disaster prevention” and “area development” would be the “livelihood projects” to be implemented in the resettlement sites. These livelihood projects and programs proposed coupled with the resettlement sites development is expected to form local development growth centers. The area development projects and programs formulated in the Provincial and City/ Municipal Development Plans are necessary to sustain and promote these livelihood projects, and will play a leading role. The following are the major area development projects, which are expected to be materialized in the near future: ! Legazpi City Special Economic Zone (Phase I : 33ha), ! Bicol Regional Agro-industrial Center (BRAIC), ! International Airport Construction Project at Bariis (Legazpi City), ! Improvement of Legazpi Port, ! Improvement of Tabaco Port, ! Rehabilitation of the Philippine National Railways, ! Improvement & Construction of Roads in Urban Centers and Tourism Areas, ! Construction of Pantao Port, and ! Others. All of these area development projects should be implemented in parallel with or incorporating the disaster prevention works so as to generate the expected project efficiency and effectiveness. 4.7 Institutional Improvement Plan Community-based approach in disaster management stipulated by PD1566 encouraged the active involvement of LGUs and the people in disaster management. Though the community-based approach in disaster management that has been advocated in the Philippines, there are some institutional constraints to disaster prevention in Mayon Volcano areas. The institutional improvement plan in community-based disaster management is summarized below, by categorizing them into the following three aspects: regulatory, operational, and financial aspects. 1) Regulatory Improvement Plan ! Revision of National Calamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan – priority over maintenance of existing facilities over newly proposed facilities Summary (Master Plan) S - 42 ! Monitoring Responsibility for Mud and Debris Flow – DPWH has technical capacity. DPWH should be responsible for Mud and Debris Flow Monitoring 2) Operational Improvement Plan ! Review of the Government Policy on Budget Allocation ! Inter-LGU Cooperation Agreement on Disaster Management should be recommended ! Non-Structural Mitigation Measures as national building code and land use plan at Provincial and Municipal Levels should be prepared ! Review of Disaster Preparedness Plan and Contingency Plan (Operation Manual) prepared at Municipal and Barangay levels ! Integration of Public Education Campaign on disaster and its precautionary measures in school curricula It is necessary to increase the “economic surplus” by promoting the economic development in order to implement these improvement plans. For generation of such surplus, the increase in productivity is required. Besides, the public education on disaster including its awareness raising and networking of inter- LGU cooperation activities in disaster coping would be indispensable to strengthen the disaster management. 4.8 Sabo Planning (1) Selected Project Candidate Sabo projects in this Study Area are selected by the conditions and criteria for this Study as follows. 1) Yawa River System Sabo Project (SF-1) 2) Quinali (A) River System Sabo Project (SF-2) 3) Buang River Sabo Project (SF-3) 4) San Vicente Sabo Project (SF-4) 5) Padang River Sabo Project (SF-5) 6) Basud River Sabo Project (SF-6) 7) Bulawan River Sabo Project (SF-7) Summary (Master Plan) S - 45 ! to mitigate flood damage in the flood prone area ! to upgrade the function of river as a flood way for Sabo works ! to enhance the productivity of land use b. Alternative Plan Based on the basic concepts, several alternative plans are considered as follows. i. Dredging the river channel ii. Raising the existing dike iii. Widening the river channel with embankment iv. New flood way Alternative iii. is selected for all schemes to secure in advance the right of way for future river improvement works suitable for a 100-yr probable flood. Alternative iv. is selected for the San Vicente river to mitigate the flood inundation in Malinao by diverting the river course into the sea instead of presently draining into the Quinali (B) river. (2) Urban Drainage Plan 1) Conceivable Countermeasures a. Increase of Flow Capacity The main river channels such as the Macabalo and Tibu rivers are to be enlarged if design discharge is larger than flow capacity of the existing channels. But, to minimize the social impact of land acquisition along the main river channels, it is fully recommended to maintain the existing river width as much as possible. The flow capacity of two rivers is estimated to be around a 5-year probable flood peak discharge. Riprapping of the channels is properly installed along the water course. b. Pump Drainage Pumping Stations Pump drainage system is highly recommended to minimize the flood damage in the city. Suitable size of pumping station is to be determined to minimize the project cost. c. Flood Gates Suitable size of flood gate is to be installed in the Macabalo and Tibu rivers to protect the low-lying areas from the intrusion of tidal flood in the City. Summary (Master Plan) S - 46 d. Retention pond Installation of retention pond is considered as an effective measure to regulate flood peak and to minimize the size of pumping station if installed with a pumping station. 2) Proposed Drainage Plan The proposed drainage plan is selected as an integration of all conceivable alternative plans considered as follows. a. Riprapping along main river channels (Macabalo and Tibu rivers) b. Flood gates to protect tidal flood into the rivers c. Pumping stations to compulsorily drain interior flood inundation with flood gate operation d. Retention pond to regulate flood peak 4.10 Forecasting, Warning and Evacuation (1) Forecasting and Warning System The prevailing forecasting and warning system adopted by the PAGASA is the only conceivable system with regard to a typhoon. Several candidate systems are conceivable to forecast a volcanic eruption, mud and debris flow and flood and inundation and to disseminate warning as follows: 1) For Eruption a. Monitoring of the Activity of Magma ! Seismic sensor of three elements, good for the period of 20 seconds with telemeter ! Analyzing and data storing processor with A/D converter ! Graphic terminal with DAT or MO control function b. Monitoring of Deformation of the Mountain ! GPS with a simulation model to assess the pressure of magma on the basis of the deformation c. Monitoring of SO2 ! Automatic gas sampler with simple analyzer and telemeter system ! Automatic wind velocity and direction recorder with telemeter system 2) For Mud and Debris Flow ! Optical sensor ! Seismic sensor Summary (Master Plan) S - 47 ! Supersonic water level gauge ! Acoustic sensor ! Event reporting type rainfall gauge ! Telemetering system is fundamental to all 3) For Flood and Inundation ! Telemetered rainfall gauging system ! Telemetered water level gauging system ･ Float type ･ Supersonic type water level gauge and velocity meter (2) Warning System 1) For Warning System ! Inter-agency disaster information network with client server ! Inter-agency disaster information network with web server ! VHF radio communication system ! Radio paging system and equipment for barangay (3) Evacuation System 1) Evacuation Center ! Location of centers : Existing school buildings ! Installation : Extension of existing centers ! Facilities : Water supply, toilet and consumables 2) Livestock Sanctuary ! Number : One for each municipality ! Accommodation : Cattle, pig, and poultry 3) Emergency shelter ! Objective : Protection of the people working in the PDZ ! Location : Plantation along footpath 4.11 Resettlement Sites Development The existing and planned resettlement sites are respectively located at the following places: Existing Sites : Baligang (Ligao), Banquerohan1(Legazpi), Batawon (Camalig), Buang (Tabaco), Quitago (Guinobatan), and Mi-isi (Daraga) 1 Banquerohan resettlement project has an expansion plan (Phase II: 27ha). Summary (Master Plan) S - 50 CHAPTER 5 MASTER PLAN 5.1 Basic Conditions for Master Planning (1) Basis for Planning The Master Plan was formulated in referring to the following plans and programs: (a) land use plan, (b) disaster prevention plans and programs and (c) supporting programs. The proposed disaster prevention plans were discussed and assessed on the basis of the assumed land use. In addition, the supporting programs are proposed to complement and assist the sound implementation of the proposed disaster prevention plans. (2) Preliminary Screening of the Candidate Projects To screen out the proposed coping projects, an economic and social assessment was preliminarily carried out. 1) Sabo Works a. Economic Viability Economic evaluation was carried out for Yawa River System to select the target scale of planning in terms of return period (10-, 20- and 5-year) and land use plans for three options (Option 1 to 3). As a result, the return period of 20-year and land use plan of Option 3 yielded the highest EIRR. Then the other six river systems and rivers were economically evaluated for return period of 20-year and land use plan of Option 3. The result of evaluation is summarized as follows: River Systems or Rivers EIRR (%) B/C 1. Yawa 24.67 1.58 2. Quinali (A) - Alternative A 16.32 1.07 3. Buang 21.67 1.43 4. San Vicente 18.49 1.21 5. Padang 19.14 1.28 6. Basud 14.00 0.95 7. Bulawan 17.16 1.16 b. Social Assessment The following table presents the numbers of beneficiaries and the people to be affected to demonstrate the social impact of each project. Summary (Master Plan) S - 51 River Systems or Rivers No. of Beneficiaries No. of Relocated 1. Yawa 758 65 2. Quinali (A) 1,619 21 3. Buang 16 5 4. San Vicente 129 8 5. Padang 574 38 6. Basud 134 0 7. Bulawan 467 0 2) Flood Control and Urban Drainage a. Economic Viability The EIRRs were estimated for the rivers of Yawa, Quinali (B), San Vicente, Nasisi, Ogsong, and Legazpi City as summarized below. The Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project is economically viable but other projects are not viable according to their EIRRs. River Systems or Rivers Return Period (Year) EIRR (%) 1. Yawa 20 10.08 2. Quinali (B) 20 5.66 3. San Vicente 20 6.47 4. Nasisi 20 5.23 5. Ogsong 20 6.10 6. Legazpi Drainage 10 23.96 b. Social Assessment Social assessment was done by estimating the number of beneficiaries. Legazpi drainage project is estimated to bring about 1,663 beneficiaries, as shown below: River Systems or Rivers No. of Beneficiaries 1. Yawa 391 2. Quinali (B) 488 3. San Vicente 331 4. Nasisi 50 5. Ogsong 402 6. Legazpi Drainage 1,663 5.2 Master Plan Projects and Programs There are wide ranges of requirements for strengthening of the disaster prevention or establishment of a comprehensive disaster prevention system around Mayon Volcano. Among others, the following 16 projects and programs were identified through the Master Plan Study. Summary (Master Plan) S - 52 Direct Coping Projects (1) Sabo Facility Construction SF-1 : Yawa River System Sabo Project 1. Objective All debris materials must be trapped in the proposed sand pocket. The proposed plan for Yawa river system keeps an extensive land for enhanced land use. 2. Components - Site : Anoling River and Pawa-Burabod River - Sabo Facility: Sand pocket to deposit debris flow materials - Probable 1-day rain fall with the return period of 20 years - Estimated Annual Runoff Volume : 808,000m3/year - Storage Capacity: 28,400,000m3 - Protected Area and Property: 26,585,500m2 in Legazpi City area, Yawa main river, railways, Cagsawa ruins, national road, etc. - O&M Work: 23,600m3/year 3. Work Volume - Sabo Dam (C.S.G.): Length = 1,100m, Height = 4.0m (Anoling River: 600m, Pawa-Burabod: 500m) - Spur Dike: ･ C.S.G.(Type-A): Length = 1,900m, Height = 5.0m (Anoling River: 1,900m) ･ Combined (Type-B): Length = 5,100m, Height = 5.0m (Anoling River: 1,730m, Pawa-Burabod River: 3,370m) ･ Embankment (Type-C): Length = 600m, Height = 5.0m (Pawa- Burabod River: 600m) - Training Dike: Length = 5,100m, Height = 2.3m (Anoling River: 4,750m, Pawa-Burabod River: 350m) 4. Project Cost - PHP2,344.5 million 5. Economic Evaluation - EIRR: 24.67% - B/C: 1.58 SF-2 : Quinali (A) System Sabo Project 1. Objective Debris flow materials are to be gathered into main channel by spur dike and flowed down between barangays and the paddy field safely. This project aims to keep an extensive land for enhanced land use. 2. Components - Site : Masarawag River and Quirangay River - Sabo Facility: Sand pocket with a ground sill to be used for dispersing and depositing the debris flow. Guiding dike or spur dike to meet the Maninila river flow with the Masarawag river flow artificially. - Probable 1 day rainfall with a return period of 20 years - Estimated Annual Runoff Volume : 510,000m3/year - Storage Capacity: 6,262,000m3 - Protection Area and Property: 14,000,000m2 including Barangays, railways, national road, paddy field, etc. - O&M Work: 318,400m3/year Summary (Master Plan) S - 55 SF-6 : Basud River Sabo Project 1. Objective There are some tributaries next to the target rivers. Debris materials are to be converged into one channel and trapped in the proposed sand pocket. This project is designed to trap the sediment materials at the upstream reach area from the national road. 2. Components - Site : Basud River and one parallel channel - Sabo Facility: Sand pocket - Probable 1 day rainfall with a return period of 20 years - Estimated Annual Runoff Volume : 198,000m3/year - Storage Capacity:17,100,000m3 - Protection Area and Property: 6,480,000m2 including Barangay, national road, etc. - O&M Work: 4,300m3/year 3. Work Volume - Sabo Dam (CSG): Length = 350m, Height = 4.0m - Spur Dike: ･ CSG (Type-A): Length = 2,500m, Height = 5.0m ･ Combined (Type-B): Length = 500m, Height = 5.0m 4. Project Cost - PHP584.9 million 5. Economic Evaluation - EIRR: 14.00% - B/C: 0.95 SF-7 : Bulawan River Sabo Project 1. Objective On the upstream area, it is possible that one tributary of the Bulawan River will capture the Tabigyan River. Facility planning should protect this piracy phenomenon. This project is able to protect such a channel movement by reasonable planning. 2. Components - Site : Bulawan River - Sabo Facility: Continuous spur dike to guide the debris flow to the downstream reach. Deflection dike to protect the piracy. - Probable 1 day rainfall with a return period of 20 years - Estimated Annual Runoff Volume : 445,000m3/year - Protection Area and Property: 3,739,300m2 including Malilipot town proper, national road, bridge, etc. - O&M Work: not required 3. Work Volume - Spur Dike: ･ Combined (Type-B): Length = 1,350m, Height = 5.0m ･ Combined (Type-C): Length = 3,050m, Height = 5.0m 4. Project Cost - PHP769.2 million 5. Economic Evaluation - EIRR: 17.16% - B/C: 1.16 Summary (Master Plan) S - 56 The Sabo Master Plan projects for each river are summarized below: The Master Plan Projects for Sabo Facility Construction Work Volume (Length) River System River Type Sabo Dam (m) Spur Dike (m) Training Dike (m) Run Off Volume (1,000 m3) Pocket Capacity (1,000 m3) Direct Cost (PHP Million) EIRR (%) Yawa River Improvement - - - - - - - Pawa- Burabod Sand Pocket 500 3,970 350 209 5,280 Budiao Sand Pocket - - - 107 Yawa River System Anoling Sand Pocket 600 3,630 4,750 492 23,120 2,344.5 24.67 Quirangay Sand Pocket 350 4,300 950 156 1,830 Tumpa No Action - - - - - Maninila Spur Dike 450 - 168 Masarawag Sand Pocket 100 6,500 2,100 186 4,432 1,912.8 16.32 Ogsong No Action - - - - - - - Quinali (A) River System Nasisi No Action - - - - - - - Buang Protection Dike 0 1,150 539 2,430 249.1 21.67 Quinali(B) River Improvement - - - - - - -Quinali (B) River System San Vicente Sand Pocket 600 5,100 306 12,015 1,459.4 18.49 Arimbay River System Arimbay No Action - - - - - - - Padang River System Padang Sand Pocket 350 4,550 - 211 13,500 960.4 19.14 Basud River System Basud Sand Pocket 350 3,000 - 198 17,100 584.9 14.00 Bulawan River System Bulawan Spur Dikes and Deflection Dike 0 4,900 - 445 6,840 769.2 17.16 Total - 2,850 37,550 8,150 3,017 86,547 8,280.3 - (2) River Improvement Alternative iii (widening the river channel with embankment) is selected for the Yawa River Improvement Project. RI-1 : Yawa River Improvement Project 1. Objective The project aims to mitigate flood damage in the flood prone area and upgrade the function of the river as a suitable flood way for Sabo works in the upper tributaries and enhance the productivity of land use along the river improvement portion. 2. Components - Length of Dike: 2,000m from the river mouth - Design Discharge: 1,350m3/s (20 years) - Design Depth: 4.4m - Design River Width: 90m - Design River Cross Section: Double trapezoid 3. Work Volume - Embankment: 203,000m3 - Excavation: 85,000m3 - Wet masonry: 20,000m2 4. Project Cost - PHP509.2 million 5. Economic Evaluation - EIRR: 10.08% - B/C: 0.65 Summary (Master Plan) S - 57 (3) Urban Drainage The proposed drainage plan in Legazpi City is selected as an integraton of all alternative plans considered for Macabalo and Tibu rivers as follows. ! Rip-rapping along main river channels ! Flood gates to protect tidal flood into the rivers ! Pump drainage to drain flood water to the sea ! Retention pond to regulate flood peak UD-1 : Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project 1. Objective The project aims to mitigate flood inundation in the Legazpi City that situates in low-lying area frequently caused by interior flood and tidal flood. 2. Components - River Improvement: 1,700m for Macabalo & 34m for Tibu - Pumping Facility (2 stations): 10m3/s for Macabalo & 1m3/s for Tibu - Flood Gate Facility (2 rivers): 5 gates for Macabalo & 3 gates for Tibu - Retention Pond (2rivers): 12ha for Macabalo & 0.5ha for Tibu 3. Work Volume - Channel Excavation: 36,400m3 (Macabalo) & 1,500m3 (Tibu) - Embankment: 4,840m3 (Macabalo) & 437m3 (Tibu) - Rivetment works: 2,534m3 - Pumping Facility: 10 and 1m3/s - Flood Gates: 5 units (3 x 3) for Macabalo & 3 units (3 x 3) for Tibu 4. Project Cost - PHP643.7 million 5. Economic Evaluation - EIRR: 23.96% - B/C: 1.73 Summary (Master Plan) S - 60 2) Provincial Level PP-1 : Provincial Disaster Management System Strengthening 1. Objective This program is designated with a view to upgrading managerial and operational capability of the Provincial Government staff in charge of disaster management (especially PDMO and PDCC), so that they can properly cope with disasters and take quick response actions in accordance with the Disaster Management Operation Manual. 2. Components - Capability building of the Provincial officers in charge of disaster management, especially those in the Provincial Disaster Management Office (PDMO) and other agencies concerned. - Programming and practice of the disaster management training taking into account the existing basis of competence of the target personnel. - Establishment of an information network system by installing a set of the facilities and equipment. - Upgrading of the disaster management information system to keep accuracy and reliability of the data and information on vulnerabilities to hazards, hazard areas and number of population residing in danger areas, etc. - Policy and legal arrangements to cope with the current disaster-related issues such as optimum land use, enforcement of laws & regulations, ownership, natural conservation and so on. - In this Program, the following will be taken up as the program components: ･ Capacity building of PDCC/ PDMO, ･ Consolidation of coordination framework and networking for disaster management (LGUs-DCCs-PDMO-NGAs-Private Sector/ NGOs), ･ Restructuring of the provincial system for integrating disaster mitigation into area development, ･ Reorientation of cooperation in disaster coping and conclusion of an agreement on response & recovery operations among the neighboring LGUs at every level, and ･ Others. 3. Project Cost - PHP2.2 million Summary (Master Plan) S - 61 PP-2 : Province-wide Socio-economic Development and Monitoring 1. Objective To assure smooth implementation of the inter-city/ municipal projects/ programs and monitor the balanced socio-economic development of the province as a whole, this program also aims to strengthen a monitoring system by establishing a much closer linkage connecting the Provincial Government with its relevant city and municipalities. 2. Components - Establishment and strengthening of the overall coordination framework among the government agencies concerned such as the LGUs at every level, national government offices (both central and regional) as well as the private sector including NGOs. - This program will include the following typical projects and programs as indicated below: ･ Resettlement and livelihood development and monitoring, ･ Introduction and establishment of the “Social Investment Fund” as social safety net scheme to support/ assure the livelihood of disaster victims and social weak in the Province, ･ Establishment of Technology and Livelihood Development Center (TLRC) in Albay Province (TLRC data center & information technology support services for livelihood and entrepreneur development), ･ Eco-tourism development around Mayon Volcano (with one-stop eco-tourism guidance center and “Mayon eco-panorama promenade” under or in tie-up with disaster mitigation scheme), ･ Implementation of the socio-economic development projects and programs, centering on the increase in agricultural production, industrialization (agro-industry development in particular) and tourism, and ･ Others. 3. Project Cost - PHP5.6 million Summary (Master Plan) S - 62 3) Community or City/Municipality Level CP-1 : Community-based Disaster Management Strengthening 1. Objective This program is to extend the on-going efforts to upgrade/strengthen the disaster management system of the city/municipalities and barangays concerned in the Study Area. 2. Components - Capability building of the city/municipality and Barangay staffs in charge of disaster management, through execution of periodical staff training. - Programming and practice of the disaster management taking into account the existing basis of competence of the target personnel - Establishment of the information network system to assure communications among PDMO/PDCC, CDCC/MDCCs and BDCCs. - This program will incorporate the following disaster-related component programs: ･ Institutional strengthening of CDCC/MDCCs including BDCCs with capability building of their disaster management staff, ･ Enhancement of disaster coping capacity through upgrading of the forecasting & warning and evacuation system, ･ Resettlement community development program in association with livelihood programs and projects, ･ Strengthening of volunteer disaster operation groups, ･ Awareness promotion campaign and enlightenment on disaster management through seminars, workshops and drills for general public and including the disaster-related education at primary and junior schools, ･ Preparation of the comprehensive city/ municipal land use plan including hazard mapping & resource assessment, key commodity development strategy, etc. and ･ Others. 3. Project Cost - PHP11.3 million CP-2 : Livelihood Development Projects and Programs 1. Objective For sound operations of the resettlement project, especially for their sustainability, the livelihood programs and projects are to be carried out in parallel and as a package with institutional and financial supporting programs and even coupled with area socio-economic development projects. The livelihood development and supporting programs could be categorized into the following five components. 2. Components CP-2(1) On-farm and Marine Production Enhancement - Introduction and practice of a new scheme named “Farm Land Trust Management” under the auspices of LGU and other authorities concerned like DAR, DA, CDA, etc. - Production enhancement by inter-cropping farming (mostly coco-based one with banana, pili, abaca, corn, etc.) with a view to assuring a stable livelihood of thenant farmers. - Production of quality raw materials to provide stably the agro-based industries to be set up within or nearby the resettlement sites. CP-2(2) Agro-industry and Manufacturing Development - Creation of job opportunities for the resettlers to enable them to make a living without returning to the former farming places at risk and losing their means of livelihood for those affected by implementation of the structural projects. Summary (Master Plan) S - 65 As a conclusion of the project cost estimate, the total amount of investments necessary to attain the development objectives of this Master Plan is estimated at PHP 13.49 billion. (4) Operation and Maintenance Cost The annual operation and maintenance cost is summarized below. Operation and Maintenance Cost (Unit: Million PHP) Code No. Description Amount Sabo Facility Construction SF-1 Yawa River System Sabo Project 7.1 SF-2 Quinali (A) River System Sabo Project 11.0 SF-3 Buang River System Sabo Project 0.3 SF-4 San Vicente River System Sabo Project 3.7 SF-5 Padang River System Sabo Project 2.4 SF-6 Basud River System Sabo Project 1.7 SF-7 Bulawan River System Sabo Project 1.2 River Improvement RI-1 Yawa River Improvement Project 1.1 Urban Drainage UD-1 Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project 1.7 Forecasting, Warning and Evacuation FW-1 Forecasting, Warning and Evacuation System Strengthening Project 82.2 Relocation/Resettlement RR-1 Relocation and Resettlement Projects 5.4 Total 117.8 5.4 Project Evaluation and Priority Ranking (1) Project Evaluation To screen out the candidate projects, the economic evaluations for the alternative plans were preliminarily carried out with regard to the Sabo projects (options 1 to 3), flood control and urban drainage projects by return period. As the result of evaluation, the Option 3 for 20-year return period was selected. The economic internal rates of return (EIRR) for all flood control projects (20- year return) were not viable indicating lower than 15%, while that of the Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project showed a very high economic viability working out at 23.96%. Summary (Master Plan) S - 66 The results of economic evaluation for preliminary selection are summarized below: Results of Economic Evaluations for the Alternative Plans River system Option No. Return Period (Year) EIRR (%) B/C NPV (15%) (Milli. PHP) 1. Sabo Projects Yawa River 3 20 24.67 1.58 3,248.3 Quinali(A) River 3 20 16.32 1.07 88.3 Buang River 3 20 21.67 1.43 40.8 San Vicente River 3 20 18.49 1.21 103.1 Padang River 3 20 19.14 1.28 168.7 Basud River 3 20 14.00 0.95 -21.8 Bulawan River 3 20 17.16 1.16 700.4 2. Flood Control Projects Yawa River - 20 10.08 0.65 -65.9 Quinali (B) River - 20 5.66 0.38 -555.0 San Vicente River - 20 6.47 0.43 -112.0 Nasisi River - 20 5.23 0.36 -365.0 Ogsong River - 20 6.10 0.41 -65.9 3. Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project - 10 23.96 1.73 197.4 4. Integrated Evaluation (as a Package) - - 22.40 1.43 2,938.3 Notes: Conditions for Economic Evaluation - ① Evaluation period: implementation period + 50 years, ② Discount rate: opportunity cost of capital (15%) (2) Selection of the Priority Projects and Programs To screen out the priority projects among the proposed ones, an evaluation criteria for their prioritization was established and used, referring to the formulated basic concept and strategies and through discussion with the authorities concerned. These consist of (a) imminence of disaster impact, (b) economic feasibility (EIRR), (c) social impacts (no. of beneficiaries and affected people), and (d) representation as a model. Summary (Master Plan) S - 67 The prioritization results of the core projects and programs are given in the following table. Master Plan Projects/Programs and Their Prioritization. Code No. Projects/programs (1) Urgency of Implemen- tation (2) Economic Advantage (EIRR) (3) Social Impact (No. of Beneficiaries) (4) Degree of Represen- tation as Model Total Scores (Accumulated Points) Sabo Facility Construction SF-1 Yawa River System Sabo Project A A A A 20 SF-2 Quinali (A) River Sabo Project B B A B 14 SF-3 Buang River Sabo Project C A C B 10 SF-4 San Vicente River Sabo Project C B C B 8 SF-5 Padang River Sabo Project B B A A 16 SF-6 Basud River Sabo Project B C C B 8 SF-7 Bulawan River Sabo Project C B B B 10 River Improvement RI-1 Yawa River Improvement Project B C B C 8 Urban Drainage UD-1 Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project A A A B 18 Notes: (1) Urgency of Implementation A: High, B: Medium, C: Low (2) Economic Advantage (EIRR) A: >20%, B: 15 - 20%, C: <15% (3) Social Impact (No. of Beneficiaries) A: >500, B: 200 - 500, C: <200 (4) Degree of Representation as a Model Project A: Large, B: Medium, C: Small Accumulated Scores: A=5 points, B=3 points, C=1 point Based on the key factors for selection of the livelihood projects such as (a) labour-intensive or employment creation, (b) utilization of local resources (materials and expertise), (c) prospects of marketability, and (d) availability of the utilities (water and energy), the following enterprises or projects are promising and will be taken up in the Feasibility Study. 1) Increase in Agricultural Productivity and Production ! Coco-based inter-cropping with banana, abaca, corn, pilinuts, root crops, vegetables and others ! Increase in paddy production 2) Promotion of Agro-industry and Agribusiness ! Handicraft (abaca, nipa, caragumoy, etc.) and furniture making (pili tree, bamboo, etc.) ! Coco coir production (coco fibre, twine, dust or peat, etc.) ! Food processing (pilinuts, fruits, vegetables, etc.) Summary (Master Plan) S - 70 whether the development in protected area which is planned as Option 3 for land use plan could extract the potentiality inherent in the hazardous area to be protected from volcanic or flood disaster. According to land use plan of Option 3, the following impacts are expected: ! The enhancement of agricultural productivity is expected for major agricultural crops such as palay, coconut (copra), and vegetables. ! New areas for industrial and service sector are planned and from these lands, agro-industrial products with high value added is expected to increase and trade industry including distributing these products in the form of transportation, wholesale and retail service will be accelerated. ! Tourism will be more activated by implementation of disaster prevention. Especially Mayon Volcano is expected to be the most important trigger of regional economic prosperity by expansion of disaster free zones in the Study Area. ! The feeling of freedom from disaster of residents could be a fundamental factor of their daily lives. At the same time, this fact will promote/ accelerate the socio-economic development of the protected area. From these impacts, the projects in the Master Plan are expected to extract the potentiality of the Study Area and contribute considerably to socioeconomic sustainability of the area. (2) Operations and Maintenance of the Disaster Preventive Structures The Project Management Office (PMO) will be established for implementation of the proposed projects and programs. The PMO will be led by DPWH Region V. Collaboration and coordination with various national government agencies, provincial, municipal and city governments (LGUs) will be required. The organizational setting will be studied further in the Feasibility Study. Though LGUs will not cover investment cost, active involvement of LGUs in project implementation and O&M will be considered. (3) Environmental Impacts The indirect effects and socioeconomic and cultural impacts would be produced by the implementation of the projects and programs proposed in the Master Plan. The disaster prevention/ mitigation projects proposed in this Master Plan will generally have a positive impact on the environment. The construction and Summary (Master Plan) S - 71 rehabilitation works of the disaster preventive facilities are mostly designed to improve environmental conditions in the disaster prone areas. The improvement of such basic infrastructure will prevent the occurrence of disasters and mitigate their effects. In addition to the physical impacts, the following socioeconomic and cultural impacts will be brought about subsequent to the implementation of the Master Plan projects and programs: ! Increase in agricultural productions and development of their processing industries ! Generation of employment opportunities ! Improvement of the people’s living standards (especially those living in disaster-prone areas ! Expansion of business chances ! Promotion of WID (women in development) ! Other socioeconomic (multiplier) effects As to the increase in employment opportunities, which is the most imminent socioeconomic issue to be addressed and conductive to the improvement of resettlers’ living standards, about 3,500,000 man-days of job opportunities are expected to be generated if all the Master Plan projects and programs are implemented by the target year of 2020. Summary (Master Plan) S - 72 CHAPTER 6 PRIORITY PACKAGE AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Priority Projects and Supporting Programs The projects and programs recommended to be immediately executed in this Master Plan are combined as “Priority Package” and subjected to a feasibility study in next phase. The Priority Package consists of : (a) Yawa River System Sabo Project, (b) Legazpi City Urban Drainage Project, (c) Forecasting, Warning, and Evacuation System Strengthening Project, (d) Resettlement Sites Development Project (at two sites: Banquerohan in Legazpi City and Anislag in Daraga Municipality), and (e) Institutional and Supporting Services Strengthening Programs and Projects. This Priority Package is to be implemented during Phase I (up to 2005), but before its implementation, more than one year is needed for the detailed design and/or preparation of the works such as formulation and approval of the projects/ programs as well as budgetary arrangement. 6.2 Recommendations For a more successful implementation of the Master Plan projects and programs, the following are particularly recommended: For the Master Plan Projects and Programs 1) As the disaster prevention/ mitigation measure or project is an integral part of the area socioeconomic development, the government is advised to allocate the required fund to the disaster prevention in proportion to area development; 2) To implement duly the Master Plan projects and programs, it is recommended for the government to tap a funding source and have recourse to the cooperation of the local government units (LGUs) to raise a necessary fund to implement the projects; 3) With a view to ensuring the soundness and sustainability of the Sabo and flood control projects, maintenance of their structures has to be given priority, especially for the existing facilities damaged by calamities; 4) In view of the incessant or unforeseen change of the volcano and river conditions, the Sabo and flood control planning and design should be regularly reviewed, especially after every disaster occurrence. As to the frequency of updating the Master Plan, it is suggested to do it at least every 10 years in the case of no remarkable changes;