Decision Tree Homework: Generating & Solving Decision Trees with Imperfect & Perfect Info , Assignments of Systems Engineering

Download Decision Tree Homework: Generating & Solving Decision Trees with Imperfect & Perfect Info and more Assignments Systems Engineering in PDF only on Docsity! SYST 473 Homework 5 For the Following problems (1-5), (a) Generate the decision tree with the information given (b) Solve the decision tree with the information given (c) Generate the decision tree as if you had perfect information (d) Solve the decision tree for perfect information (e) What is the Value of Perfect Information? (f) What is the Expected Value of Perfect information? 1. (10pts) Given the following data: 2. (10pts) Given the following data: 3. (10pts) Problem 12.3 Extra credit if you explain about the relationship between EVPI and dominance. 4. (22pts) Problem 12.4 (you will probably want to wait until after Tuesday’s class.) Alternative Chance Probability Outcome A 1 0.1 20 2 0.2 10 3 0.6 0 4 0.1 -10 B 1 0.1 10 2 0.2 30 3 0.6 -1 4 0.1 -10 Alternative Chance Probability Outcome A 1 0.1 20 2 0.2 10 3 0.6 0 4 0.1 -10 B 1 6 5. (15pts) Given the following data For the Following problems (6-9), (a) Generate the decision tree for imperfect information (b) Solve the decision tree for imperfect information (c) What is the Value of Imperfect Information (VII)? (d) What is the Expected Value of Perfect information (EVII)? 6. (15pts) Given the data from problem 1 and the prediction probabilities: 7. (15pts) Given the data from problem 2 and Given the prediction probabilities: Chance 1 2 3 4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 Prediction "1" 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 "2" 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 "3" 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 "4" 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Decision Alternative Chance ProbabilityAlternative Chance Probability Outcome D1 A 1 0.6 C 3 0.2 10 4 0.8 20 D 3 0.2 30 4 0.8 5 2 0.4 C 3 0.2 20 4 0.8 25 D 3 0.2 20 4 0.8 5 B 1 0.6 C 3 0.2 40 4 0.8 10 D 3 0.2 30 4 0.8 15 2 0.4 C 3 0.2 10 4 0.8 25 D 3 0.2 5 4 0.8 30 Chance 1 2 3 4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 Prediction "1" 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 "2" 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 "3" 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 "4" 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1