Introduction to Global Environmental Problems: Understanding Human Influences and Impacts , Study notes of Introduction to Public Administration

Download Introduction to Global Environmental Problems: Understanding Human Influences and Impacts and more Study notes Introduction to Public Administration in PDF only on Docsity! PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 1 Global Environmental Problems PUAF 741 Spring 2005 Steve Fetter PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 2 Purpose • Understand and assess human influences on the global environment • Through back-of-the-envelope calculations and simple models, develop a way of seeing and understanding the natural world • Make you more informed consumer and alert critic of scientific information and analyses • Environmental policy is largely about science; if you are going to do environmental policy, you should understand the science PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 3 “The college idealists who fill the ranks of the environmental movement seem willing to do absolutely anything to save the biosphere, except take science courses and learn something about it.” —P.J. O’Rourke PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 4 “Quantitative Aspects” of Global Environmental Problems • The subject matter is unavoidably technical: ≈80% science, ≈20% policy • There are no prerequisites, but knowledge of calculus and/or physics and/or chemistry at the first-semester undergraduate level is helpful • Don’t worry if you don’t have this background, but be prepared to work a bit harder and ask for help PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 5 Required Textbook • Available at bookstores, Amazon; from publisher http://uscibooks.com/ for $34 • Written by first-class scientist • Simple models and back-of- the-envelope calculations • Good exercises and problems • Terrific appendices • Little explanation or review PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 6 Recommended Textbook • Available at bookstores, Amazon for $55 ($32 used) • Supplements lecture slides • Written by first-class scientist • Excellent non-technical explanations of atmospheric topics we cover in class • Good review of basic physics and chemistry • Useful appendices PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 7 Grading ? 40% 30% 30% ask/answer questions, attendanceParticipation Final Exam 3 short (30-min) exams; questions similar to PS; past quizzes, exams on the web page Quizzes ~10; self-graded; essential to successProblem Sets PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 8 Problem Sets: Learning By Doing What I hear, I forget What I see, I remember What I do, I understand —Confucius PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 9 Problem Sets: examples • A key element of President Bush’s energy policy is to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for oil exploration. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 6 to 16 billion barrels of oil might be recovered from ANWR, over a 20-year period. • What increase in the corporate-average fuel economy (CAFE) standard would save an amount of oil equal to what could be recovered from ANWR over the same period? PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 10 Problem Sets: examples Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, has about 100,000 dairy cows. Each cow eats about 120 pounds of grass and feed per day. Manure and urine is spread on fields; the nitrogen leaches into the Susquehanna River and is transported into the Chesapeake Bay. At roughly what rate does nitrogen flow into the environment from Lancaster County’s dairy herd? What is the resulting concentration of nitrogen in the Bay? PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 11 Quizzes and Exams • Quizzes and exams are closed-book • Formulas and essential information will be provided • One page of notes allowed for final exam • Final exam will almost certainly be given Monday, 16 May, 4-7 pm, 1207 VMH PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 12 Class Meetings • Lecture – review solution to problem set (if due) – introduce topics, examples using PowerPoint slides (available on web) – ask questions – pizza? • Discussion section – None scheduled because of small class size – Come to me for help! PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 25 “Unfinished Business” Ranking High-Risk Problems • global climate change • stratospheric ozone depletion • habitat destruction, biodiversity loss Medium-Risk Problems • acid deposition • airborne toxics, surface water pollution, herbicides/pesticides Low-Risk Problems • oil spills, groundwater pollution, radionuclides, thermal pollution PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 26 Why Should We Care? • Natural systems provide free goods and services that are important to human welfare: – food, fish, fiber, genetic diversity – clean air and water, fertile soil – regulate climate, absorb UV radiation – limit pests and diseases, pollination – opportunities for recreation, aesthetic values Value ≈ $16-54 trillion/y (GWP ≈ $30-45 trillion/y) PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 27 The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital Costanza et al. Nature 387: 253-260 (1997) PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 28 Ecosystem Services • Gas regulation • Climate regulation • Disturbance regulation • Water regulation • Water supply • Erosion control and sediment retention • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Waste treatment • Pollination • Biological control • Refugia • Food production • Raw materials • Genetic resources • Recreation • Cultural PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 29 PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 30 Terrestrial Biome Value ($1012/y) ———————————————————— Forest 5 Tropical 4 Temperate/boreal 0.9 Wetlands 5 Marsh/mangroves 1.7 swamps/floodplains 3 Lakes/rivers 1.7 Desert, tundra, ice, rock, urban 0 Cropland 0.128 ——————————————————————— Total Terrestrial 12 PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 31 Marine Biome Value ($1012/y) ———————————————————— Open ocean 8 Coastal 13 Estuaries 4 Seagrass/algae beds 4 Coral reefs 0.4 Shelf 4 ———————————————————— Total Marine 21 Total World 33 (16-54) World GWP (2001) 46 (PPP) PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 32 PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 33 Why Should We Care? • Natural systems provide free goods and services that are important to human welfare • Human activities degrade or alter distribution of these goods and services – reduce resource availability (fish, water) – alter chemistry of air, water, soil – alter climate – alter or eliminate natural habitat, species PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 34 Why Should We Care? These impacts decrease human well-being: • loss of crops, forests, fish stocks • storms, floods, sea-level rise • death, illness, spread of disease vectors • loss of genetic information • damage to recreation, tourism, culture, aesthetics • conflict over resource redistribution/access; trans- boundary flows of pollution, refugees, migrants; unrest due to deprivation and growing inequities PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 35 Human Impacts Are Not New • Since Homo sapiens arose 100,000 yr BP – extinction of large mammals (mammoths) • Since agriculture arose 10,000 yr BP – desertification of cradle of civilization • Since the industrial revolution 250 yr BP – deforestation of northern hemisphere – ten-fold increase in human population, accumulation of wealth, rise of megacities PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 36 What’s New • Rate and magnitude of change • Global extent of change • Are there environmental limits to growth? – How can we best improve overall human welfare (economic + natural goods and services)? – How can we close the gap between rich and poor? – Can the poor approach levels of consumption now enjoyed by the rich without ruining the natural systems upon which human well-being depends? PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 37 2.3 65 landfills, sewage 100 natural gas, coal mines ? 210 ruminants, paddies, burning 160 wetlands, termites, ocean CH4 Emission (MtC/y) 0.351028040100 594 preindustrial atmosphere CO2 Added (GtC) 0.004/y 0.5 cement, urbanizatn 6.3 fossil-fuels 0.2 fuelwood ≈1 forest clearing 150 NPP CO2 Emission (GtC/y) 0.2 (of usable) 500 all other 800 process, cooling, evap ?2,000 irrigation 50,000 total runoff (2/3 unusable) Water Use (km3/y) 0.15 1.5 cities, transport 0.15 (2/3 hydro) 5 sustainable fuelwood 15 cultivated 2/3 harvested 135 ice-free land Land Use (106 km2) Human Natural Other Activity Industrial Energy Tradit’nl EnergyAgriculture Natural BaselineIndex Disruption By PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 38 0.1 20 Industrial processes 30 combustn, refining 4 burning 30 burning 800 vegetation React HC Emission (Mt/yr) 0.7 10 smelting 60 coal, oil burning 0.3 burning 0.8 burning 100 decay, sea spray Sulfur Emission (MtS/y) 0.4 1.3 industrial processes ?? 4.4 soils, ruminants 9 oceans, soils N2O Emission (MtN/y) 0.5 1 industrial processes 30 fossil-fuel combustn 1 60 fertilizer 200 biological fixation Nitrogen Fixation (MtN/y) Human Natural Other Activity Industrial Energy Tradit’nl EnergyAgriculture Natural BaselineIndex Disruption By PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 39 0.2 150 medical, fallout 1 reactors, coal burning ? 800 radon, cosmic rays Radiation (Mrem) 10 2 lube-oil, waste 3 tankers, platforms 0.5 natural seeps Oil Emission (Mt/y) 0.7 13 mining, mobilizatn 3 oil, coal burning 0.2 burning 0.7 burning, biocides 25 outgassing Mercury Emission (ktHg/y) 13 100 metals production 230 gasoline additives 0.2 burning 0.4 burning 25 volcanoes, dust Lead Emission (ktPb/y) 0.3 50 industrial processes 40 fossil-fuel combustn 15 burning 40 burning, wheat handling 500 sea spray, volcanoes, dust PM Emission (Mt/yr) Human Natural Other Activity Industrial Energy Tradit’nl EnergyAgriculture Natural BaselineIndex Disruption By PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 40 Quartiles of Change: 10,000 BC to mid-1980s 25% 50% 75% 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Deforested area Terrestrial vertebrate diversity Carbon releases Population size Lead releases Water withdrawals Sulfur releases Carbon tetrachloride production Phosphorous releases Nitrogen releases PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 41 Are We Over-Driving Our Headlights? • Ozone – Antarctic hole was a surprise; luckily, we could stop before an Arctic hole appeared • Climate – GHG emissions continue to increase without any clear idea of consequences • Biodiversity – Are we in the midst of a human-induced mass extinction? If so, does it matter? • Nutrients – Human flows approach or exceed natural flows; what are the long-term consequences? PUAF 741 Week 1: Introduction 42 Population, Consumption, Pollution MetalsOrganic Pop. per car Per-capita 9000.0070.60.251,100129Bangladesh 1300.021.60.691,400156Pakistan 800.0060.40.8201,000112Nigeria 1500.082.80.8111,7001010India 1500.125.92.2213,1001280China 200.105.22.0626,80061Thailand 101.4256,500170Brazil 28.22308.89824,000127Japan 25.127012.110021,00082Germany 13.515020.019029,000278US Toxics (kg/y)CO2 (t/y) Energy (GJ/y) Income ($/y) Popu- lationCountry