Impact of Free Trade Agreements on EU-MENA Trade: Turkey and Israel Case Study, Slides of Business Management and Analysis

Download Impact of Free Trade Agreements on EU-MENA Trade: Turkey and Israel Case Study and more Slides Business Management and Analysis in PDF only on Docsity! European Endowment for Democracy and Civil Society Facility Deep and comprehensive free trade agreements with EU (cf. EaP) with Large potential gains from trade and  Incentives to include key partners in the region, including  Extensive financial and technical aid  Secure institutional anchoring (NEC) Docsity.com Challenge comparable to that following collapse of communism Systemic changes requires 1. Change in personnel managing the system 2. Implementation of basic principles of a market economy 3. Foreign financial and technical assistance 4. Sharing common values and adopting common principles, presupposing a strong sense of community solidarity Docsity.com 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 %nonAgtononag %nonAgto Agadir Docsity.com History of failed attempts to integrate MENA Long embedded conflicts  Israel/Palestine  Lebanon/Syria  Western Sahara Malfunctioning democracies  Prolonged civil strife in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Lebanon  Imperfect market economies  Entrenched military industrial complexes Docsity.com Large economic gains from trade if successful MENA states have high tariffs and extensive non-tariff barriers Intra-regional trade is exceptionally small, so large gains are possible Large potential for FDI in MENA to supply EU markets Docsity.com Imports Exports EUMED 0.243*** (0.083) -0.128 (0.139) EFTAMED 0.081 (0.183) 0.000 (0.205) USAMED -0.223 (0.502) 1.363 (0.975) TURMED 0.593*** (0.206) 0.407 (0.394) PAFTA 0.551 (0.357) -0.062 (0.327) AGADIR 0.376* (0.216) 0.208 (0.225) TUREU 0.412** (0.173) 0.610*** (0.232) NOBS 11006 10405 R2-Adjusted 0.293 0.117 RMSE 1.129 0.688 LL -16254.2 -10180.34 Imports = MENA total imports from the 64 economies that represent 90% of their total imports Exports = MENA total exports to the 64 economies that represent 90% of their total exports Interpreting the results: Intra-Agadir trade is around 46 percent higher after the entry into force of the agreement as e0.376 – 1 = 0.456 Docsity.com  Specific results  Intra-PAFTA exports have increased significantly, by around 67%  EU exports to Turkey have increased by around 67%  Exports from Turkey to EU have increased by 50%  Turkish exports to Mediterranean countries increased on average by 80%  Israel’s imports from Turkey have quadrupled after 1997, controlling for distance, common border, incomes and incomes per capita Docsity.com The effect of the Turkey-Israel agreement has been to  Triple Israel’s imports from Turkey and  Increase Israel’s exports to Turkey by 80%  Significant benefits would emerge from an FTA between Egypt and Israel (Egger and Larch, 2007) Docsity.com