Labor Force Participation Rates: Changes Since the Peak in 2000, Lecture notes of Statistics

Download Labor Force Participation Rates: Changes Since the Peak in 2000 and more Lecture notes Statistics in PDF only on Docsity! 1 Steven F. Hipple hipple.steve@bls.gov Steven F. Hipple is an economist in the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak? The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is working or actively looking for work. It is an important labor market measure because it represents the relative amount of labor resources available for the production of goods and services. After rising for more than three decades, the overall labor force participation rate peaked in early 2000 and subsequently trended down. In recent years, the movement of the baby-boom population into age groups that generally exhibit low labor force participation has contributed to the decline in the overall participation rate. From 2000 to 2015, most of the major demographic groups saw a decrease in labor force participation. Teenagers experienced the largest drop in participation, which coincided with a rise in their school enrollment rate. Young adults 20 to 24 years also showed a decline in labor force participation, but the decrease was not as steep as that for teenagers. The labor force participation rate of women 25 to 54 years also fell, with the decrease more pronounced for women who did not attend college. The labor force participation rate of men 25 to 54 years continued its long- term decline. As in the past, the decrease in participation among men with less education was greater than that of men with more education. However, labor force participation rates of men and women 55 years and older rose from 2000 to 2009 and subsequently leveled off. The labor force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either working or actively looking for work.1 This rate is an important labor market measure because it represents the relative amount of labor resources available for the production of goods and services. Though subject to some cyclical influences, labor force participation is primarily affected by longer-term structural changes.2 These might include changes in the age composition of the population, school enrollment and educational attainment, employer-provided pensions, or Social Security benefits. September 2016 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 2 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  After trending up for more than three decades, the labor force participation rate peaked at 67.3 percent in early 2000. Over the next few years, the rate receded to about 66 percent and stayed at that level through 2008. The participation rate then dropped again, and by mid-2016, it stood at 62.7 percent. (See figure 1.) This article describes historical trends in labor force participation on the basis of estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS), and it focuses on the participation rate since its peak in 2000. It examines changes in labor force participation among major demographic groups and discusses possible reasons for these changes. Change in the age profile of the population The age distribution of the population can strongly influence overall labor force participation. Figure 2 shows the change in the civilian noninstitutional population by major age group since 1948. For seven decades, the aging of the baby-boom generation—people born between 1946 and 1964—has profoundly affected the population’s size  and composition. For example, the population 16–24 years increased from 21.5 million in 1962 to 36.7 million in  1978. From 1971 to 2000, the large population cohort 25–54 years grew from 70.9 million to 120.7 million. After the  oldest baby boomers turned 55 in 2001, the population 55 years and older rose from 58.7 million in 2001 to 87.1 million in 2015. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 5 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Note: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Between 2000 and 2015, the school enrollment rate of teenagers increased from 77.2 percent to 82.3 percent.5 (See figure 4.) The rising school enrollment rate among teenagers could have contributed to their falling labor force participation rate, because those enrolled in school are much less likely to participate in the labor force. From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of teenagers enrolled in school fell from 41.8 percent to 25.5 percent.  Group 2000 2015 Change, 2000–15 Black or African American 84.4 80.9 –3.5 Asian 91.7 89.2 –2.5 Hispanic or Latino 92.5 90.8 –1.7 Women, 25 to 54 years   Total 76.7 73.7 –3.0 White 76.8 73.9 –2.9 Black or African American 78.9 76.5 –2.4 Asian 71.3 67.8 –3.5 Hispanic or Latino 67.6 66.3 –1.3 Men, 55 years and older   Total 40.1 45.9 5.8 White 40.3 46.4 6.1 Black or African American 36.0 39.9 3.9 Asian 46.6 50.6 4.0 Hispanic or Latino 45.2 51.2 6.0 Women, 55 years and older   Total 26.1 34.7 8.6 White 25.9 34.5 8.6 Black or African American 27.0 34.7 7.7 Asian 29.2 37.6 8.4 Hispanic or Latino 24.0 33.3 9.3 Table 1. Labor force participation rates of selected groups, by race and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, annual averages, 2000 and 2015 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 6 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  A recent study examined data on the self-reported reasons that people who were not in the labor force did not work.6 Among teenagers, the most often cited reason for not working was school attendance. Researchers have suggested that, among youth enrolled in school, part of the drop in labor force participation might be due to a rise in educational intensity, such as an increase in time devoted to schoolwork or other extracurricular activities.7 Teenagers who are not enrolled in school are generally more likely to participate in the labor force than teenagers who are enrolled in school. However, the labor force participation rate of out-of-school teenagers also fell, from 75.7 percent in 2000 to 65.3 percent in 2015. (See figure 4.) For some teenagers, work might have become less desirable because of, for example, stagnant wages: over the 2000–15 period, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings for  teenagers were flat. Researchers have suggested that not-enrolled teenagers might face competition for jobs (in retail trade and food services, for example) from less-skilled adult workers.8 Adults 20–24 years Adults 20–24 years are more likely than teenagers to participate in the labor force. The labor force participation  rate of adults 20–24 years peaked around 79 percent in the late 1980s. (See figure 3.) After declining during the  early 1990s, the rate then remained relatively flat for several years. Although labor force participation among young adults fell between 2000 and 2015, the decline was less steep than that of teenagers. From 2000 to 2015, the participation rate of young adults fell by 7.1 percentage points, compared with a drop of 17.7 percentage points among teenagers.9 Among young adults in 2000, the participation rate was lowest for Asians (63.0 percent) and highest for Whites (79.9 percent). (Labor force participation rates of the four major race and ethnicity groups showed a similar ranking in 2015.) From 2000 to 2015, the participation rate of young adults declined in each of the four major race and ethnicity groups; the drop was largest (–10.2 percentage points) among Asians. (See table 1.) U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 7 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Although school enrollment rates of teenagers and young adults have increased substantially over the past several decades, enrollment rates of young adults have remained lower than the rates of teenagers because many young adults have completed their formal education. As figures 4 and 5 show, only 38.5 percent of young adults were enrolled in school in 2015, compared with 82.3 percent of teenagers. As was the case with teenagers, the labor force participation rate of young adults enrolled in school was lower than that of young adults who were not in school. The labor force participation rate for both groups fell between 2000 and 2015. The labor force participation rate of young adults enrolled in school fell from 64.2 percent in 2000 to 51.0 percent in 2015, whereas the participation rate of young adults not enrolled in school edged down from 84.3 percent in 2000 to 83.0 percent in 2015. (See figure 5.) During the same period, the proportion of young adults enrolled in school rose from 32.2 percent to 38.5 percent. Of young adults who were neither enrolled in school nor participated in the labor force in 2015, 61 percent were women and 20 percent had less than a high school diploma. The labor force participation rate of young women not enrolled in school and with less than a high school diploma was only 52.6 percent, or 23.7 percentage points lower than the rate for their male counterparts. (See table 2.) The lower participation rate of young women could reflect that some were caring for young children. In 2015, 49 percent of women 20–24 years who were not enrolled in  school and had less than a high school diploma were mothers, and 24 percent of women in this age group who were not enrolled in school and had a high school diploma or more were mothers. In 2015, only 7 percent of women 20–24 years enrolled in school were mothers. Between 2000 and 2015, individuals with less education generally had the largest declines in labor force participation. At all levels of educational attainment, the labor force participation rate of young men who were not enrolled in school was higher than that of their female counterparts. (See table 2.) The gap in participation rates between young men and women narrowed at higher levels of educational attainment. Among people with at least a U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 10 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Between 2000 and 2015, the labor force participation rate of women 25–54 years varied by race and ethnicity.  (See table 1.) In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 67.6 percent for Hispanic women to 78.9 percent for Black women. From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of women in each of the four major race and ethnicity groups declined. The drop in labor force participation was steepest for Asian women (–3.5 percentage  points). In 2015, the participation rate ranged from 66.3 percent for Hispanic women to 76.5 percent for Black women. From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of women was higher among those with more education. (See table 3.) During this period, the decline in labor force participation was most pronounced for women with less than a high school diploma (–7.1 percentage points) and for those with a high school diploma and no college (–7.9  percentage points). The participation rate of women with at least a bachelor’s degree changed little (–0.6  percentage point) over the 2000–15 period. In 2015, among women 25–54 years, the participation rate ranged  from 49.1 percent for those with less than a high school diploma to 82.3 percent for those with at least a bachelor’s  degree. Gender by year Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college, no degree Associate’s  degree Bachelor’s degree and  higher Men     1995 79.5 91.2 92.3 94.8 96.1   2000 82.1 90.7 91.9 93.9 95.8   2005 82.0 89.1 90.6 93.2 94.9   2006 82.7 89.0 90.7 93.0 95.0   2007 82.7 89.1 91.0 93.3 95.4   2008 82.3 88.7 90.4 93.1 95.2   2009 81.2 87.6 89.4 92.2 95.1   2010 81.0 87.1 88.6 92.0 94.5   2011 80.6 86.1 87.5 91.1 94.5   2012 79.3 86.0 87.7 91.5 94.5   2013 79.3 85.4 87.5 91.4 94.2   2014 79.6 85.0 86.8 91.0 94.1   2015 79.5 84.8 87.3 91.6 93.9 Change   1995– 2000 2.6 –.5 –.4 –.9 –.3 1995– 2015 0.0 –6.4 –5.0 –3.2 –2.2 2000–15 –2.6 –5.9 –4.6 –2.3 –1.9 Women     1995 50.9 74.0 78.5 83.1 84.6   2000 56.2 74.9 78.8 83.3 82.9   2005 53.1 72.5 76.7 82.6 82.2   2006 53.0 72.7 76.9 82.1 82.5   2007 52.4 72.1 77.0 82.7 82.2   2008 52.0 72.2 77.2 82.8 83.0 Table 3. Labor force participation rates of people ages 25 to 54 years, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, selected years, 1995–2015 See footnotes at end of table. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 11 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years old As figure 8 shows, the labor force participation rate of mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years old increased steadily during the 1970s and 1980s. This steady increase contributed to the rise in women’s overall  participation during this period. Although the 1990s saw small gains, the labor force participation rate of mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years old peaked at 72.9 percent in 2000 and subsequently receded. Gender by year Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college, no degree Associate’s  degree Bachelor’s degree and  higher   2009 52.7 71.7 76.2 82.6 83.2   2010 52.2 71.5 75.8 81.6 82.6   2011 51.6 70.2 74.8 81.6 82.3   2012 51.7 69.3 73.9 81.4 82.6   2013 49.9 68.4 73.0 80.0 82.4   2014 49.3 68.2 73.4 79.6 82.4   2015 49.1 67.0 73.4 79.6 82.3 Change   1995– 2000 5.3 .9 .3 .2 –1.7 1995– 2015 –1.8 –7.0 –5.1 –3.5 –2.3 2000–15 –7.1 –7.9 –5.4 –3.7 –.6 Table 3. Labor force participation rates of people ages 25 to 54 years, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, selected years, 1995–2015 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 12 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  As in previous years, mothers whose youngest child was between 6 and 17 years of age were more likely to participate in the labor force (74.6 percent) in 2015 than mothers whose youngest child was between 3 and 5 years of age (67.3 percent) or mothers whose youngest child was under 3 years old (61.4 percent). Presumably, when mothers have young children, they have less time to engage in labor market activities. Data from the American Time Use Survey show that parents of infants spend much more time caring for children relative to parents of older children.10 Among mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years of age, the labor force participation rate of those with at least a bachelor’s degree edged up from 76.2 percent in 2000 to 77.8 percent in 2015. (See figure 9.) By contrast,  the participation rate of mothers with a high school diploma and no college declined during this period, from 72.4 percent to 64.5 percent, while the rate of mothers with less than a high school diploma fell from 53.9 percent to 48.9 percent. The participation rate of mothers with some college or an associate’s degree declined from 77.2  percent to 73.6 percent. Men 25–54 years A noteworthy development in the labor force over the past six decades has been the slow decline in the labor force participation rate of men 25–54 years.11 After peaking at 97.4 percent in the mid-1950s, the participation rate of men 25–54 years fell to about 88 percent in 2015. (See figure 6.) The rate fell by an average of 1.2 percentage  points per decade between 1960 and 1990, and it declined more rapidly between 1990 and 2015. The rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points between 1990 and 2000 and by 2.3 percentage points between 2000 and 2010. From 2010 to 2015, the participation rate of men 25–54 years edged down by 1.0 percentage point. Within the 25- to 54-year age group, men 45–54 years were less likely to participate in the labor force than those in  the 25- to 34-year and 35- to 44-year age groups. The labor force participation rate of each 10-year age group declined between 2000 and 2015. (See figure 10.) U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 15 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. As just mentioned, labor force participation tends to fall when people turn 65. In 2015, the rate for women 55–64  years was 58.5 percent, compared with 15.3 percent for women 65 years and older. (See figure 11.) From 1985 to 2009, the participation rate for women 55–64 years rose steadily, but since 2009, the rate for this group has been  flat (around 59 percent). The participation rate for women 65 years and older increased slightly during the late 1980s before holding steady near 9 percent during the 1990s. The rate increased from 8.9 percent in 1999 to 15.3 percent in 2015.25 Age (years) Men Women 2000  2015 Change 2000–15  2000 2015 Change 2000–15 63 44.0 55.6 11.6 33.6 44.6 11.0 64 43.2 51.3 8.1 29.9 40.4 10.5 65 35.9 44.8 8.9 23.2 35.6 12.4 66 32.7 39.6 6.9 21.6 30.0 8.4 67 30.3 35.2 4.9 19.3 26.7 7.4 68 28.1 32.6 4.5 16.6 24.4 7.8 69 23.8 29.7 5.9 16.4 21.3 4.9 70 20.2 27.3 7.1 10.9 18.7 7.8 71 18.0 25.3 7.3 11.6 16.2 4.6 72 18.5 22.7 4.2 10.8 13.9 3.1 73 18.7 20.3 1.6 9.6 12.8 3.2 74 14.1 16.8 2.7 7 11.9 4.9 75 and older 8.1 11.2 3.1 3.6 6.0 2.4 Table 4. Labor force participation rates of persons ages 55 years and older, by single years of age and gender, annual averages, 2000 and 2015 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 16 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Between 2000 and 2015, the labor force participation rate of women 55 years and older differed by race and ethnicity. (See table 1.) In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 24.0 percent for Hispanic women to 29.2 percent for Asian women. Between 2000 and 2015, the participation rate of women in each of the four major race and ethnicity groups increased. In 2015, the labor force participation rate ranged from 33.3 percent for Hispanic women to 37.6 percent for Asian women. From 2000 to 2015, labor force participation of women 55 years and older was greater at higher levels of education. (See table 5.) Between 2000 and 2015, participation rates rose for women in each of the educational attainment categories, but the increases were larger for women with more education. In 2015, the participation rate of women 55 years and older ranged from 16.0 percent for those with less than a high school diploma to 47.1 percent for those with at least a bachelor’s degree. Characteristic 2000 2015 Change, 2000–15 Men   Total, 55 years and older 40.1 45.9 5.8 Less than a high school diploma 25.3 30.1 4.8 High school graduates, no college 38.8 41.2 2.4 Some college, no degree 44.6 46.4 1.8 Associate’s degree 46.9 50.6 3.7 Bachelor’s degree and higher 52.6 55.3 2.7 Women   Total, 55 years and older 26.1 34.7 8.6 Less than a high school diploma 12.7 16.0 3.3 Table 5. Labor force participation rates of people ages 55 years and older, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, 2000 and 2015 See footnotes at end of table. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 17 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Men 55 years and older One of the most striking labor market trends during the second half of the 20th century was the steep decline in labor force participation among men 55 years and older. The labor force participation rate of older men decreased from 70.6 percent in 1948 to 37.7 percent in 1993. (See figure 6.) After remaining flat during 1994–95, the  participation rate began to rise in 1996, and in 2000, the pace of the increase accelerated. The participation rate of older men rose from 40.1 percent in 2000 to 46.8 percent in 2012. Since 2012, the participation rate of older men has held steady (around 46 percent). As mentioned previously, the oldest baby boomers recently reached the age required to receive Social Security retirement benefits, which might have slowed the increase in labor force participation among men 55 years and older. Men 55–64 years had much higher participation rates than men 65 years and older. (See figure 11.) From 1985 to  2001, the rate for men 55–64 years held in a narrow range of 66–68 percent; then, during 2001–08, the  participation rate edged up to 70 percent and remained flat through 2015. From 1985 to 1998, the participation rate for men 65 years and older hovered around 16 percent. However, since 1998, the rate increased gradually and reached 23.4 percent in 2015. Among those 55 years and older in 2000, the labor force participation rate was lowest among Black men (36.0 percent) and highest among Asian men (46.6 percent). (See table 1.) From 2000 to 2015, the participation rate of men 55 years and older increased in each of the major race and ethnic groups. In 2015, the participation rate ranged from 39.9 percent for Black men to 51.2 percent for Hispanic men. As seen in other demographic groups, men 55 years and older with more education were more likely to participate in the labor force. In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 25.3 percent for men with less than a high school diploma to 52.6 percent for men with at least a bachelor’s degree. (See table 5.) The participation rate of older  men in each educational attainment category rose from 2000 to 2015. In 2015, the participation rate ranged from 30.1 percent for men with less than a high school diploma to 55.3 percent for men with at least a bachelor’s  degree. Some possible explanations for the rise in labor force participation among older men and women since the mid-1990s are well documented.26 These explanations include changes to Social Security laws, changes to private retirement plans, increased life expectancy, rising healthcare costs, and increased educational attainment of older adults.27 Conclusion Characteristic 2000 2015 Change, 2000–15 High school graduates, no college 25.7 28.8 3.1 Some college, no degree 31.9 36.8 4.9 Associate’s degree 35.7 43.3 7.6 Bachelor’s degree and higher 41.4 47.1 5.7 Table 5. Labor force participation rates of people ages 55 years and older, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, 2000 and 2015 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 20 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  14 See David H. Autor and Melanie Wasserman, Wayward sons: the emerging gender gap in labor markets and education (Washington, DC: Third Way, April 2013), http://economics.mit.edu/files/8754. 15 See Aaronson et al., Labor force participation, pp. 234–35; and Robert E. Hall, “Quantifying the lasting harm to the U.S. economy  from the financial crisis,” in Jonathan A. Parker and Michael Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, vol. 29 (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), pp. 71–128. 16 For more information on the history of Social Security disability insurance programs, see A history of the Social Security disability programs (Social Security Administration, January 1986), https://www.ssa.gov/history/1986dibhistory.html. 17 The total number of disabled worker beneficiaries rose from 2.9 million (or 1.7 percent of the working-age population) in 1980 to 9.0 million (or 3.6 percent) in 2014. For an overview of the expansion of the Social Security disability insurance program, see David H. Autor, The unsustainable rise of the disability rolls in the United States: causes, consequences, and policy options, Working Paper no. 17697 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2011), http://www.nber.org/papers/w17697. 18 The number of women 25–54 years who received Social Security disability insurance benefits increased from 1.2 million (or 2.0  percent of women in this age group) in 2000 to 1.9 million (or 3.0 percent) in 2014. See Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Annual statistical report on the Social Security disability program, 2000 (Social Security Administration, September 2001) and Annual statistical report on the Social Security Disability Program, 2014 (Social Security Administration, November 2015), https:// www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/index.html. 19 From 2004 to 2014, there were increases in the percentages of men and women 25–54 years who were not in the labor force and  who cited illness or disability as the main reason for not working. See Hipple, “People who are not in the labor force.” 20 See Courtney Coile, Mark Duggan, and Audrey Guo, “Veterans’ labor force participation: what role does the VA’s disability  compensation program play?” American Economic Review, vol. 105, no. 5, May 2015, pp. 131–36. 21 For more information on the Current Population Survey veterans supplement, see the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/vet.pdf. 22 In a recent study, Alicia H. Munnell suggests that the average age of retirement for women and men has leveled off in recent years; see The average retirement age—an update, Issue Brief no. 15–4 (Boston, MA: Center for Retirement Research, March 2015), pp. 1– 6, http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/IB_15-4_508_rev.pdf. 23 Since the beginning of 2000, the normal retirement age for receiving Social Security benefits has gradually increased. Traditionally, retirement benefits are first available at age 62, with a reduction for each month that benefits are received before age 65, the age at which individuals are eligible for full Social Security benefits. The normal retirement age was raised as part of the 1983 Social Security reform legislation. The age rises gradually for individuals born in 1937 or later. Currently, the highest normal retirement age is 67 years, for those born in 1960 or later. 24 A recent study focused on the baby-boom generation and its impact on overall labor force participation. See Alicia H. Munnell, The impact of aging baby boomers on labor force participation, Issue Brief no. 14–4 (Boston, MA: Center for Retirement Research,  February 2014), pp. 1–6, http://crr.bc.edu/briefs/the-impact-of-aging-baby-boomers-on-labor-force-participation/. 25 For more information on the reasons why women are working longer, see Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, “Women working  longer: facts and some explanations,” in Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, eds., Women working longer (University of Chicago Press, forthcoming), http://papers.nber.org/books/gold-12. 26 See Michael V. Leonesio, Benjamin Bridges, Robert Gesumaria, and Linda Del Bene, “The increasing labor force participation of  older workers and its effect on the income of the aged,” Social Security Bulletin, vol. 72, no. 1 (Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, 2012), pp. 59–77, https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v72n1/v72n1p59.pdf. 27 For a discussion of the history and development of the Social Security program, see Patricia P. Martin and David A. Weaver,  “Social Security: a program and policy history,” Social Security Bulletin, vol. 66, no. 1 (Office of Retirement Policy, Office of Policy, November 2005), https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v66n1/v66n1p1.html. For an analysis of the impact of Social Security (and Medicare) changes on the labor market, see “Raising the ages of eligibility for Medicare and Social Security,” Issue Brief U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 21 MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW  (Congressional Budget Office, January 2012), pp. 1–12, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/42683. For a discussion of changes to private pension plans and labor force participation of older adults, see Frank W. Heiland and Zhe Li, Changes in labor force participation of older Americans and their pension structures: a policy perspective, Working Paper no. 2012-18 (Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, August 2012), http://crr.bc.edu/working-papers/changes-in-labor-force-participation-of-older-americans- and-their-pension-structures-a-policy-perspective-2/. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, people 65 years in 1990 could expect to live another 17.2 years; life expectancy at 65 years increased to 17.6 years in 2000 and to 19.3 years in 2013, http:// www.cdc.gov/nchs/ data/hus/hus14.pdf#016. In a recent study, researchers found evidence which suggests that older adults have substantial health capacity to work longer. See Courtney Coile, Kevin S. Milligan, and David A. Wise, “Health capacity to work at older  ages: evidence from the U.S.,” Working Paper no. 21940 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2016),  http://www.nber.org/papers/w21940. Rising healthcare costs might explain some of the rise in labor force participation among older adults because some older adults might have to continue to work to pay out-of-pocket expenses for healthcare. Over the past two decades, the cost of medical care has increased sharply. Between 1995 and 2015, the Consumer Price Index for all urban customers (CPI- U) for medical care rose at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, compared with a 2.3-percent annual rate of increase of the CPI-U for all items. Over the same period, the index for prescription drugs increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent. For a discussion of labor force participation and work patterns of older women by educational attainment, see Elizabeth T. Hill, “The labor force participation of  older women: retired? working? both?” Monthly Labor Review, September 2002, pp. 39–48, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/09/ art4full.pdf. RELATED CONTENT Related Articles Unemployment rate nears prerecession level by end of 2015, Monthly Labor Review, April 2016. Labor force projections to 2024: the labor force is growing, but slowly, Monthly Labor Review, December 2015. The U.S. economy to 2024, Monthly Labor Review, December 2015. 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