Power Transition Theory: Understanding International Politics and Global Conflicts, Slides of International Relations

Download Power Transition Theory: Understanding International Politics and Global Conflicts and more Slides International Relations in PDF only on Docsity! Power Transition Theory Organski & Kugler, Lemke Introduction End of Cold War How should the United States attempt to manage world politics (China)? How will critical alliances (NATO) evolve? How can regional conflicts be managed? How will nuclear deterrence affect the stability of deterrence? Measuring power The number of people who can work and fight Economic productivity Effectiveness of government in extracting resources War is most likely when there is parity (equality) between the dominant power and (dissatisfied) challenger. Dissatisfaction The dominant power establishes the status quo (SQ). Some great powers are satisfied with the SQ, others are dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction can be based on historical, ideological, religious, territorial, personal, or cultural factors Dissatisfied states want to change the SQ, or the rules of the game. Alliances Nations that share common preferences will form stable alliances (NATO). Alliances between satisfied-dissatisfied states will not last long. Empirical Tests of PT Theory Relative Power Distribution Major War Preponderance Parity, no Parity & Transition Transition NO 4 6 5 YES 0 0 5 Source: Organski & Kugler (1980) Empirical Tests of PT Theory Power Distributions in Local Hierarchies in South America War Preponderance Parity, no Parity & Transition Transition NO 12 4 1 YES 0 0 2 Source: Lemke (1996) Potential Future Transitions China overtaking the US India overtaking either China or the US in the last half of the 21st century