National Security Policy: Determining America's Interests and Appropriate Measures, Slides of Public Policy

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National Security Policy …safeguarding America’s national interests from external and internal threats… September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 1 National Security Policy • Pattern of government decisions & actions – intended to counter perceived threats – foreign & domestic – to America's national interests, – and especially America’s vital interests • Vital Interests the most powerful policy legitimizing values – Invokes survival of the state • Security as a basic value – Others make little sense without security – Overshadowing other values • Liberty • Efficiency • Equity September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 2 Begs four questions: • What are America’s national interests? • What are America’s vital interests? • Who determines these? • How do we choose the appropriate actions & tradeoffs for protecting these public interests? 3 September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 1 docsity.cmo National Security is Government’s Job Individual Decisions Collective Decisions I can choose, alone & without Choices are made by the interference community & are binding on all Private Decisions Liberty of the Individual: Tyranny of the Majority: My choice has no consequence for your welfare Public Decisions Theft by the Minority: Liberty of the Group: My choices affect your welfare • What are American national & Vital Interests? • Who and what threatens those interests? • How should we cope with those threats? 4September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy Based on: Michael Munger (2001) Analyzing Policy (CQ Press) 5 leadership decide September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy How does the community determine what is in the national interest & appropriate national security policy? Let the People Decide Let the Experts Decide Let Efficiency Decide Let the political (elite) Let the Market Decide 6 leadership decide September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy How does the community determine what is in the national interest & appropriate national security policy? Let the People Decide Let the Experts Decide Let Efficiency Decide Let the political (elite) Let the Market Decide 2 docsity.cmo Non-Crisis National Security Policy • Congress acts as a “policy editor” in National Security Policy – Budget authorization – Ratifying – Investigation Treaties – Affirming senior appointments • Courts defer to Executive on national security issues – Protection of classified information • Public plays little direct role beyond electing the President – Public opinion highly susceptible to manipulation – Social mobilization (extraordinary circumstances) • States (federalism) play a policy role – Anti-terrorism – National Guard (implementation) September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 13 Rational Model & National Security September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 14 Factors favoring Rational Model • High Stakes of National Security • Broad Consensus on Vital Interests – American territorial integrity – Preservation of American political and economic institutions – Safety of Americans at home and abroad – Stable and friendly Canada & Mexico – Strong & Prosperous European free market democracies – Access to Middle East Oil ? • President is nationally elected September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 15 5 docsity.cmo Where does consensus on these vital interests come from? • Education & socialization (patriotism) • National Security issues move from Government agenda Î public agenda – Problem framing • Public deliberation? – Opinion polling – Elections? September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 16 Defense Modernization as a Case of a National Security Problem Day-to-day policy making September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 17 Defense Modernization as a Case of a National Security Problem • What is the issue? – How to re-engineer the U.S. defense posture to match the threats of the 21st Century • What is the problem? – Non-traditional threats to vital interests • Weapons of mass destruction • Terrorism – Expansion defendable of national interests September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 18 6 docsity.cmo Gl i ism licy 1. i l i 5. i Opti z z z z September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 19 obal Engagement Preempt on Alter Deployments New Weapons Systems Unilateral Rational Analysis of Defense Po Revisions Ignore t. 2. Fortress America v. Globa Engagement 3. Alter bas c force posture 4. Alter deployments New weapons systems 6. New strategy: Preempt on 7. New Alliances 8. Unilateralism v UN on Formulation & Decision Implementation Public Agenda Collapse of Communism Proliferation of WMD Terrorist Attacks “Evil” states Agenda Setting Government Agenda New Alliances Closer look reveals interesting anomalies • Most imminent threats ignored, while distant threats receive priority – Missile Defense • Tens of billions of dollars for no defense against a non-existent threat – Iraq v. North Korea v. Al Qaeda • Weapons systems cut by DoD restored to budget – Weapons systems preferred by DoD underfunded/delayed • Force structure changes altered/stopped • Proposed Base closings halted • New Strategy receives no public scrutiny • Overall DoD Budget altered – Budget is used to manipulate policy September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 20 Factors Competing with the Rational Model • Consensus on national interests does not translate into consensus on how to be protect those national interests – War v. diplomacy – Defense budget v. domestic spending – Missile Defense v. Harbor defense – Draft v. all volunteer force – Equity v. efficiency & security (civil rights & the military) September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 21 7 docsity.cmo 28 ing Korea 1. i 2. Li i 4. i i i l i 8. Opti l ? September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy Halt Previous “Rewards” Joint Exercises w Japan, S. Korea Move bombers to Guam Increase Intelligence Monitor Rational Analysis of Bush Administration (2001) National Security Policy v. North Rally China, Russia, Japan, S. Korea Ignore t. Go to war 3. mited military act on Covert actions 5. Coerc ve diplomacy 6. Negot ate directly 7. Mobilize international polit ca & econom c pressure UN sanctions on Formulation & Decision Implementation Public Agenda Intelligence: North Korea continues working on an atomic Bomb Agenda Setting Government Agenda Mu tilateral Dialog Questions • Does the specific strategy for dealing with the North Korean “threat” represent the most effective & appropriate actions for dealing with that threat? September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 29 Larger Questions • If the primary threat is the imminent acquisition of nuclear weapons by “axis of evil” states, why did the U.S. attack Iraq rather than North Korea? • If the primary threat is nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, why didn’t the U.S. focus on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons rather than Iraq or North Korea; and North Korea rather than Iraq? – Especially given Pakistan’s assistance to North Korea September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 30 10 docsity.cmo Policy Streams Model of Decision to Confront with North Korea lProb em Stream Convergence Window N. Korea A-bomb Republican Presidency Middle East Instability Rogue States N. Korea A-bomb Islamic Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Democratic Republican House & Senate Presidency Bush as Wartime Commander Republican Public patriotism following Al Congress Qaeda 9/11 attack Overthrow of Taliban time i Politics Stream Policy (Solution) Stream Confront “Evil” Reg mes (North Korea) September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 31 Policy Streams Model of Decision to Invade Iraq lProb em Stream Convergence Window N. Korea A-bomb Islamic Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Middle East Instability Saddam Hussein N. Korea A-bomb Republican Presidency Democratic Presidency Republican House & Senate Bush as Wartime Commander Republican Public fear following Al Qaeda Congress 9/11 attack Ovethrow of Taliban time Politics Stream Policy (Solution) Stream Confront “Evil” Regimes (Invade Iraq) September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 32 END September 29, 2003 17.30j Public Policy 33 11 docsity.cmo