Population Growth and Control: Malthus, Ehrlich, and Global Trends, Slides of Botany and Agronomy

Download Population Growth and Control: Malthus, Ehrlich, and Global Trends and more Slides Botany and Agronomy in PDF only on Docsity! Population Docsity.com Thomas Malthus • 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society – Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence – Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically – The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise. http://www.lakesideschool.org/studentweb/worldhistory/modernworld/images/malthus.jpg Docsity.com Demographic Transition • First, high birth rates and high death rates • Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop • Finally, low birth rates match low death rates Docsity.com Global Death Rates • Demographic Transition: – First, death rates must drop – Then birth rates drop http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/com mons/thumb/d/d7/Death_rate_world_map.P NG/800px-Death_rate_world_map.PNG Docsity.com Demographic Transition • 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries • 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries • 2050: Projected completion of transition Docsity.com Rate per 1000 Population 1/30 1000 Toot Sweden | ! 1900 1925 1950 1975-584 Docsity.com 3 eS a . Mexico I i \ tm mem ee TT ssn Mos pO », i f \ ™ ¥ ¥ ol ae : iT \. :Death Rate = _ i ee, = NY | en, ae es nny beeen eee eee boceeee eee eee enone eee ene Jone 1895 1920 1945 1370 Global Fertility • 1950’s: 5 children/woman • 1970’s: 4 children/woman • 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman • Replacement: 2.1 children/woman Docsity.com World Population Growth 4a a 7 7. & 6. 3 4 5 3 4 2 3 1 2 a zy ie 1 oy “io a Rey en “a. = a Less developed regions Mare develaped regians Docsity.com World Population Demographics • Asia: 6.4 Billion – China:: 1.3 Billion – India: : 1.1 Billion • Africa: 885 Million • Americas: 875 Million • Europe:: 727 Million • Oceana: 32 Million http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/livestocksystems/images/7220f03.gif Docsity.com World Population De-1 1-3 3-6 (16-10 io- 16 Wic-20 Msc-ss ss - 160 BB iso - 550 BB 550 - 1,100 Wi.100- 2.500 2.500 - 5,000 WB over 5,000 & lw ww.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-gpw-population-map.gif Docsity.com Food Production per Capita • Food Production per capita is rising worldwide – But falling in Africa • Food production is keeping up with population – Otherwise food prices would have risen – Food prices have dropped Docsity.com Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa • Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population Docsity.com aio 200 +40 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 190 0 Per Capita P Calories, roduction of at, Protein World (developing) Latin America (developing) 240 240 240 230 200 230 — Calories 320 Calories #20 — Calories B20 Calories Fa 210 Fa 210 —Fat 210 rat — Protein 200 Protein 200 Protein 200 Protein 190 130 130 180 180 180 170 170 170 160 160 160 150 150 150 140 140 140 130 190 430 120 120 120 110 100 110 100 1981 1984 1987 1970 1973 1976 1979 1382 1985 1988 1991 1994 1964 1964, 1967 1970 1975 1976 1973 1982 1985, 1988 1981 1984 1961 1964, 1967 1970 1973 1976 1974 1982 1985 1888 1991 1994 1961 1964 1987 1970 1973 1976 1973 1982 1908 1988 1991 1994 Docsity.com Progressivist View Progress Population stimulates economy: progress. We are all better off Poor Elite Elite Poor Docsity.com Revisionist View • Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of – Population growth – Ecological destruction – Social tyranny. • The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies – humans believe they are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem) – and therefore can destroy it at will. Civilization is based on Agriculture http://cache.virtualtourist.com/1928244-Skyline-New_York_City.jpg Docsity.com Daniel Quinn • 1992: Ishmael – Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving – Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people. – Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion. – Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion – To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion. Docsity.com Social Equity View • Problems of – poverty – overpopulation – ecological destruction • Are due to – inequity of wealth – unfairness of economic and social systems Frances Moore Lappe, Food First http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg Docsity.com Social Equity View • Inequity causes overpopulation – Poor have no other source of wealth • Overpopulation causes ecological destruction • Must make economic and social systems fairer – Share control of global resources more fairly – Economic democracy http://bks4.books.google.com/books?id=AoMrJnk-qhgC&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&sig=ACfU3U3gtcaFOie7F_YcDq-G10QXTEZAQg Docsity.com Social Equity View Inequity Poor Over-Population Ecological Destruction Elite Wealth = Root Cause Docsity.com If the world were 100 people (2008) • 47 are urban dwellers – 15 live in urban slums • 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income • 6 control 50% of the entire world’s wealth – Most are U.S. citizens • 1 has a college education • 1 owns a computer • 1 near birth – 1 near death Docsity.com Both hunger and high fertility occur when: • Poverty is extreme and widespread • Society denies security and opportunity to people • Infant mortality is high • Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security • Few opportunities for women outside of home Bangladesh mother http://www.refugeesinternational.org/files/4738_image1_BA_1104_bihari_mother_and_child.jpg Docsity.com Children • Labor force • Chance for a job in city • Security – major investment – rational choice 218 million children work http://mancelovici.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/nike_child_labor.jpg Docsity.com Examples • Sri Lanka: – lower price rice • led to population decline • Cuba: – low prices for food and health care • reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6 • Kerala, India: – lower price rice, kerosene • 1/3 birth rate of average in India • Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India Kerala, India http://www.kerala-tourism-india.com/gifs/woman-harvesting-rice-fields-lower.jpg Docsity.com Family Planning • Birth Control is responsible for only 15- 20% total fertility decline – Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception – but it can speed the decline • Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased – 9% in 1960 – 60% in late 1990s • Demographic Transition requires improved – Health – Social Security – Education IUD: Intra Uterine Device http://www.plymouth.edu/wsgr/iud.jpg Docsity.com Global Fertility Total fertility rate, 2000-2004 Children per woman 5.2 [ | 2-29 [} date not available ® http://www. who.int/healthinfo/statistics/15.whostat200Smap_totalfertilityrate,jpg Docsity.com Puerto Rico: La Operacion • Young women were key to labor force – Problem was pregnancy • Result: massive sterilization program • Women coerced into sterilization – without being told it was irreversible • By 1968 – 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized • Emigration and sterilization – resulted in population drop • with no increase in standard of living. Docsity.com Bangladesh • Intensive Family Planning – in Matlab region • Contraceptive use doubled • Resulted in reduced birth rate • Cost was very high: – $120/birth averted • This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product • Not replicable on a national scale http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/HEALTH/parenting/05/08/mothers.index/story.vert.1.1.jpg Docsity.com China • 1950s, 60s Under Mao – children encouraged – Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman • 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation – “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many” – “late, long, few” • Have fewer children later • greater spacing between • Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_con gress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm Docsity.com Birth Control Methods in China Table 1. Trends in the Use of Contraceptive Methods among Married Chinese Women, 1982 to 2001.* Contraceptive Method 1982 1988 81992 1997 2001 percent Male sterilization lo 13 h 9 § Female sterilization 25 37 42 40 v Intrauterine device 50 40 40 43 46 Condom 2 2 2 4 6 Oral contraceptive pill & 5 4 Z 3 Other method 5 3 <1 1 1 * Data are from Yint and Yang® (® Docsity.com Skewed sex ratio • Sex ratio at birth (2000) – 117:100 male:female • Maternal Hepatitis B may account for much of the skewing • Boys preferred – Men care for parents in old age – Women join husband’s family • Care for husband’s parents • Selective abortion of girls – Use ultrasound to determine sex – If first child is a girl, want second to be a boy – Illegal but suspected • Female infanticide suspected – before ultrasound Docsity.com