Reasoning and Decision Making - Cognitive Psychology - Lecture Slides, Slides of Cognitive Psychology

Download Reasoning and Decision Making - Cognitive Psychology - Lecture Slides and more Slides Cognitive Psychology in PDF only on Docsity! Cognitive Psychology, 2nd Ed. Chapter 14 Reasoning and Decision Making Docsity.com Syllogistic Reasoning Valid deductive conclusions necessarily follow from the premises. All A are B (All professors are birds) All B are C (All birds are aliens) All A are C (All professors are aliens) Docsity.com Reasoning and Decision Making @ 395 All A are B Some A are B @ ® ©») O® Some A are not B © @ ® © Of OO Figure 14.1. Euler circles represent the premises of a categorical syllogism in terms of set relations. Docsity.com 396 @ THINKING Major Premise: AllA areB Meaning 1 Meaning 2 Minor Premise: ) B Some B are C (a ()c) Meaning 1 Meaning2 Meaning3 Meaning 4 Conclusion: BC B Some A are C @ ie) Combination 1 Combination 2 Figure 14,2, All possible meanings of the major and minor premises, followed by two of the eight possible combinations of meanings of these premises. Combination 2 is at odds with the conclusion “Some A are C.” ® Docsity.com Cognitive Constraints Working memory limits the number of alternatives considered. Illicit conversion: misinterpreting “All A are B” to mean “All B are A.” Belief bias: humans in diverse cultures accept conclusions as valid when they fit cultural beliefs. Docsity.com Reasoning and Decision Making @ 403 Figure 14.3. The four-card selection task of conditional reasoning. ® Docsity.com Modus Tollens—Denying the Consequent If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side. 4% turn over the 7. Catch the cheater in a social situation! beer-16, beer-21, soda-16, soda-21 If the person is drinking beer, then she is over 21. beer soda 21 16 Docsity.com Expected Utility Theory Bet 1: Win $8 with odds 1/3 $8 X 1/3 = $2.67 Bet 2: Win $3 with odds of 5/6 $3 X 5/6 = $2.50 Expected utility greater for Bet 1, most people select Bet 2. Docsity.com Subjective Utility Curve Value (subjective utility) decreases rapidly for losses but then begins to level out. Implication: Initial losses are the most painful. Very heavy losses, on the other hand, are tolerated better than one might expect. Docsity.com 408 @ THINKING Value (subjective utility) & Figure 14.4. Subjective utility is a curvilinear function of losses/gains. SOURCE: Kahneman and Tversky (1984). Docsity.com Stock Market Behavior Buyer’s regret--reference point is often lowered right after purchasing a stock, increasing the perception of risk (paid $50, but now only think it’s worth $45—a small loss). The buyer is risk averse and the small loss looks too large to keep the stock in the portfolio for long. Even a winning stock can look too risky to keep. A losing stock, on the other hand, puts one into the risk tolerant region. Losers are held too long. Docsity.com Representativeness Heuristic Typical events of a category are seen as more probable (e.g., HTTHHT > HHHTTT). Law of small numbers—mistakenly expect small samples to mirror population statistics and the Gambler’s Fallacy. Conjunctive Fallacy: Pr (AB) > Pr (A) Docsity.com Reasoning and Decision Making @ 413 Box 14.1 THE BANK TELLER PROBLEM Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she also participated in anti- nuclear demonstrations. Now, rank order these assertions from the most probable to the least probable: a. Linda is a teacher in an elementary school. b. Linda works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes. c. Linda is active in the feminist movement. d. Linda is psychiatric social worker. e. Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters. f. Linda is a bank teller. g. Linda is an insurance salesperson. h. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. SOURCE: Kahneman and Tversky (1982a). Docsity.com Availability Heuristic Events easily retrieved from memory must be highly probable. Problem lies in factors that make events stand in memory (e.g., distinctiveness, emotional salience, frequency of encoding/retrieval). Docsity.com Table 14.3. A Decision Payoff Matrix Reasoning and Decision Making @ 407 State of Nature Course of Action Perfect Fair Bad Plant Crop A 10 1 —2 Plant Crop B 8 4 0 Plant Crop C 3 3 3 SOURCE: Rubinstein (1975). Docsity.com 418 @ THINKING Box 14.3 THE POLITICAL POLL PROBLEM Here are the results of two opinion polls that compared how popular one political candidate was against an alternative candidate. Candidate A had appeared in 6 polls and won 5 of them. Candidate B, on the other hand, had appeared in 18 pools and won 9 of them. Now, for the first time, Candidates A and B will be tested against each other in the same poll. Which candidate do you expect to win? SOURCE: Estes (1976). . | geass . | USDC eg et ES GENE PEE anaes Docsity.com