Slides for Pathways to CO2 Stabilization, Carbon Policy | GEOL 1060, Study notes of Geology

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XXIII: pathways to CO2 stabilization, carbon policy review • energy use scales directly to GDP • as population grows and the rest of the world tries to “catch up” with US living standards (as per capita GDP) the global energy demand will increase dramatically- from 15 TW now to at least 30 TW by 2050 • in order to meet this demand without unacceptably severe climate consequences, much of it (some would say all of it) will have to be C-free • the problem is so big that no single strategy will work emissions pathways to CO2 stabilization •stabilization of the CO2 concentration at any level requires the reduction and eventual stabilization of emissions •this is because CO2 has a long (102-103 yr) lifetime in the atmosphere and because sinks can not balance emissions as long as emissions are rising •the emissions pathway to stabilization need not have a unique schedule, but it must add up to the same “cumulative sum” of emissions •thus any delay in reduction will demand steeper cuts later 2 different paths to same stabilization CO2 concentration, same total emissions em is si on s (C /y r) time more emissions here fewer emissions here steeper reductions resulting fr. delay delayed reduction reference pathway the area under the two curves (cumulative emissions) is the same, but delayed onset of reduction means steeper & deeper reduction required later stabilization wedges • difference between BAU and emissions needed to stabilize CO2 at 500 ppm can be approximated by a flat-bottomed triangle out to ~2050 • area of triangle is: (14 GTC/yr-7 GTC/yr) x (50 yr) / 2 = 175 GTC of avoided emissions • the stabilization can be achieved now (maybe) with present techonology, providing 50 yrs for development and deployment of new energy technologies • emissions must then drop by another 2/3 between 2050-2100 to achieve stabilization at 500 ppm each of 7 wedges is 25 GTC Pacala and Socolow ‘04 Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge Efficiency There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today E, T, H / $ Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today Fuel Switching Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). E, H / $ Implement CCS at • 800 GW coal electric plants or • 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or • 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey Carbon Capture & Storage There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$ Solar Electricity Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$ Biofuels Photo courtesy of NREL Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times T, H / $$ Natural Sinks Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) B / $ Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland htt p:/ /ww w. as es .or g/c lim ate ch an ge / an “America leads” action plan US leads by reducing its emissions 60-80% why should America lead? • because only we can • high emissions now translate to large, rapid initial reductions thru efficiency alone (pain-free) • needed technologies developed and available • serves many interests – environment – security – good for business long term (according to GE, Dupont, Alcoa et al.....) – standing in global community • developing economies looking for leadership, “leap-frog” technology (and financing) decisions, decisions...... • these studies indicate that we have the capacity to flat-line (or even decrease) emissions now • is there now sufficient collective will and leadership to address the climate change problem?....... www.climatechange.ca.gov : Western 5 Home sacrroud iedons Climate | Documents|/ Glossary Links | Research | MS®HPSS’ Funding Initiative State of California ANNOUNCEMENTS Home | ¢ REEN Perens pot Calif, Environmental HOUSE Never benzoy an07 pa tatiar iu Climate Initiative rotaction Agency GAS Dialogue Group Calif. Air Resources INVENTOI Meeting Board NMC aS December 14, 2007 Calif, Ener du an ane Public Workshop on ; GHG Scoping Plan Calif, Public Utlities Background Information and News Releases Commission from Governor Amold Schwarzenegger on a All Other Calif, Resouroas, Climate Change & Greenhouse Gas Emissions Meetings & Events ‘- : Seas Please see tems below Fil ces bere) Wester Climate Eames trves Governor's Website: http://gav.ca.gov climes Change Governor's Environmental Issue Area: Low Carbon Fuel Standard Portal Climate Change Home Governor's Environmental Issue Area: Greenhouse Gas Reduction To ceca nen | about climate change porate News Release from Governor Schwarzenegger: issues and meetings, About This Website Gov. Schwarzenegger Announces California's Participation in please sign up for our ae International Carbon Action Partnership (Gctober 25, 2007) e-mail list server. ite Map er News Release from Governor Schwarzenegger: Se Emails Gov. Schwarzenegger Announces Agreement with Western States to Enter your e-mail News Releases, Reduce Greenhouse Gases (February 26, 2007) (Gena) (Reser) Notices & —— Santee ieee News Release from Governor Schwarzenegger: Gov. Schwarzenegger Signs Executive Order Establishing World's Climate Change First Low Carbon Standard for Transportation Fuels (January 18, Other Main Links | Proceedings 2007) [Other Main Links ARB Climate Change News Release from Governor Schwarzenegger: Page Gov. Schwarzenegger Issues Directive to Establish World's First Low Carbon Standard for Transportation Fuels (January 9, 2007) CEC Eneray Policy Report News Release from Governor Schwarzenegger: (CEC Docket 06-IEP- Gov. Schwarzenegger Signs Landmark Legislation to Reduce 1) Greenhouse Gas Emissions (September 27, 2006)  Western Climate Initiative Pee eM CE tate me mE hla ag Pica! Ih [ATE INITIATIV Aiea echt earned WCI Documents The Wester Climate Initiative is a collaboration which was launched in February 2007 by the Governors of SN lopaer terete Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington to develop regional sirategies to address climate change. WClis identifying, evaluating and implementing callective and cooperative ways to reduce greenhouse gases in the region. In the spring of 2007, the Governor of Utah and the Premiers of British Public Involvement Columbia and Manitoba joined the Initiative. Other states and provinces have joined as abservers ested Brug ects PPTs ere Prati ren Through WCl, the partners set an overall regional goal in August 2007 for reducing greenhouse gas St oa emissions (see the GHG Reduction Geal Statement). By August 2008 the Partners will also camplete the design ofa market-based mechanism to help achieve that reduction goal. The partners have developed a hen isl re Workplan to guide their work and are seeking pubic input on the process. eh Upcoming! WC! will hold its first stakeholder workshop in Portland, Oregon on Thursday, January 10, For workshop details and ta register, click here to get to WC! Meetings and Events’. Training Opportunity: Webinar Series: Designing a Regional Cap-and-Trade Program SA aa hd ALL RIGHTS RESERVED COLORADO CLIMATE ACTION®PLAN A STRATEGY TO ADDRESS GLOBAL WARMING GOVERNOR BILL RITTER, JR. NOVEMBER 2007 • Hoffert video • video at http://www.sierraclub.org/roadmap/flash/ • “Climate Round Table” out takes: Venture capitalist and co-founder of Sun Microsystems Vinod Khosla calls for big business to invest in alternative energy solutions. Venture capitalist and President of New Energy Capital Dan Reicher talks about biomass and his energy advice to Google. Duke Energy CEO Paul Anderson proposes a carbon tax on business to compel industry to curb emissions. World-renowned climate scientist Dr. Steve Schneider talks about the need for public/private partnerships across the developing world. Recommendation #1 Moratorium on Coal-Fired Power Plants Technology w Sequestration ~ Decade Away All Plants w/o Sequestration must eventually be bulldozed (before mid-century) Efficiency Can Handle Needs during Interim (and is necessary on the long run)  This should be done by Congress  In interim Citizens must accomplish it borrowed from Dr. J. Hansen, well-informed US citizen Ford, GM & Chrysler sell hi-mpg vehicles in Canadian and European markets- why not here? Recommendation #4 National Academy of Sciences Study: Stability of Ice Sheets A Driver of “Dangerous” Climate Change Urgent: cannot wait for slow IPCC process Panel of Physicists, Climatologists, etc. Report: Status of Understanding, Implications, Needed Research & Possible Actions borrowed from Dr. J. Hansen, well-informed US citizen key points • stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 concentration at any level utlimately requires reduction and stabilization of C emissions • any delay in reducing emissions requires steeper & deeper cuts later in order to achieve the same stabilization CO2 conc. • a probabilistic analysis of temperature projections from repeat model runs indicates that stabilization CO2 concentrations of 4- 500 ppm are needed in order to substantially reduce the risk of exceeding 2 °C total warming • emissions reductions of ~60-80% by 2050 will be needed to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 4-500 ppm • according to one prominent, recent analysis, US energy efficiency and renewable resources are sufficient to put us on such an emissions reduction pathway • existing challenges are for government to prioritize and support energy development of C-free energy resources- market signals alone are unlikely to be sufficient • developing economies must be encouraged to follow our lead...