Urban Citizenship and the Role of European Cities in Global Development and Competition, Study notes of Geography

Download Urban Citizenship and the Role of European Cities in Global Development and Competition and more Study notes Geography in PDF only on Docsity! 1 ESPAS Ideas Paper Series Global Trends to 2030 : The future of urbanization and Megacities "Cities have played a more important role in shaping the world than empires" Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York (in office 2002-2013) For the past two decades, the world has seen its population increasingly concentrated in urban areas. This trend is not new but will speed up at a remarkable rate in years to come. Rising global urbanization is one of the defining trends of the 21st century. Projections show that urbanization combined with the overall growth of the world population could add another 2.5 billion people to the urban population by 2050. The megacity1 is a new form of urbanization, which has been described as the urban phenomenon of the 21st century. In 1950, only New York and Tokyo had a population of over 10 million. By 2025- 2030, it is estimated that around 630 million people will live in close to 40 megacities around the world. Megacities are an invention of the West and have become a reality in the East. Japan's capital Tokyo will still be the largest of them all, followed by Delhi and Shanghai. The list is dominated by cities in Asia, but several in Latin America and Africa will grow rapidly as well. In addition to these megacities, about 400 million people will live in cities of 5-10 million people, and just over 1 billion people are expected be living in cities of 1-5 million. However, most of the world's urban population will still live in cities of less than 1 million people. In some fields, large and megacities are at the cutting edge of urbanization because of their economic importance and influence. Still they are not the fastest growing cities and do not represent the majority of the urban population. Instead, there is an observable swelling of small and medium-sized cities across the world. In its different forms, urbanization, which for a long time has been uncontrolled, is now subject to more strategic planning but its advances are still insufficient in relation to the magnitude of this phenomenon. 1 What defines a megacity? A megacity is a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million. It can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge. It is difficult to define the outer limits and accurately estimate the population of megacities. Disclaimer : This publication was prepared by the European Committee of the Regions in the context of the forthcoming European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Global Trends to 2030 Report. This publication does not bind nor may be attributed to any of the European Union institutions and bodies participating in ESPAS, namely the European Commission, the European Parliament, the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU and the European External Action Service as well as the European Committee of the Regions, the European Economic and Social Committee and the European Investment Bank. Acknowledgements : The ESPAS Ideas Papers have benefited from valuable feedback received from colleagues from across the EU institutions who participated in a series of ESPAS Ideas events throughout 2018 2 The management of urbanization is the key issue for overall balance. The unprecedented acceleration poses indeed huge challenges in terms of sustainable urban development. This issue is more or less taken into consideration in Western countries but completely overlooked in other parts of the world and particularly in Africa or Latin America. The megacities create a new urban dynamic, as super- sized cities are seen as the new engine of the global economy, connecting the flow of goods. However, the current pattern of urbanization has all too often resulted in urban sprawl, low productivity, segregation, exclusion and congestion. The consequences of modern urbanization must not be underestimated. In today globalized world, "local" and "global" are more and more interconnected and many developments at urban level are in fact part of global trends. Understanding the causes and consequences of urbanization is crucial to ensuring a proper response to the global issues of our time and in preparing for the period ahead. Picture : Ranking of the world's biggest cities in 2030  Since 2003, rapidly increasing urban populations have outnumbered those in rural areas.  By the end of 2050, it is estimated that two thirds of humanity will live in cities. Global urbanization is nevertheless subject to controversy. The rate of urbanisation is indeed depending of the definition of urban areas. Significant variations exist between countries due to widely different standards. Using the geospatial technology, European Commission's researchers estimate 84 % of the world population (6,4 billion peoples) level in urban areas.  The global urban surface makes up only around 3 % of land, but cities consume 60-80 % of the energy resources.  Cities are responsible for more than 70 % of global emissions.  Urban areas account for more than 70% of world gross domestic product (GDP).  Megacities and metropolitan regions have a higher GDP per capita than their national average.  24 % of the EU urban population lives on the edge of poverty and social exclusion. In the developing world, 800 million people live in slums. 5 Picture : The economic power of cities Source : “Connectography – Mapping the future of global civilization” – Parag Khanna  The economic role of large cities varies widely between regions. US cities will continue to be important players in the urban world, contributing more than 15 % of global GDP growth in the coming years. Today, the metropolitan areas of New York and Los Angeles are the world's second and third largest, respectively in terms of GDP. China's rapid growth is fuelled by the continuous growth of its megacities and the "concentrated urban growth scenario", which has the advantage of clustering the engine of China's economic growth. In the same vein, the urban expansion in India will happen at a speed quite unlike anything the country has seen before. These developments will require making huge investments in its cities over the next 20 years. Latin America is more urbanized than any other region in the developed world, with a relatively young population and a high concentration of urban economic activities. Nevertheless, Latin America largest cities lag behind according to the urban performance index.  Africa, where only four out of ten people live in urban areas, will be one of the most important places where urbanization can be used as a transformative engine for development and growth. This makes Africa the second fastest continent in terms of urbanization, after Asia. According to UN Habitat, Africa's urbanization process will be one of the most significant economic and social transformations of the coming decades. However this rapid urbanization requires good management, regulation through legislation, good urban planning and design as well as adequate funding to ensure the sustainability of cities and to address the systemic problem of insufficient land for transportation.  The most important principle in our understanding of the new global hierarchy of world cities is that flows are more important than attributes. That means considering global rather than national perspectives by understanding interdependencies in terms of connections. In this context, globalization and digitalization together result in the increasing importance of the so-called world cities or global cities at the very top of the hierarchies. Global cities ranked by their connectivity, are indeed the most involved cities in the global economy and host a high concentration of the leading sectors in global capital and a growing share of population. 6  Will mayors rule the world? The answer to this question is complex. On the one hand, city mayors are responding to global challenges, sometimes more effectively than states and have a growing influence on the global economy but, on the other hand, as subnational entities, they are subject to national sovereignty. Despite the fact that cities are also a seat of power, nation states will remain the basic building block for global governance. The "urban oasis scenario" evoked by the Atlantic Council could nevertheless be considered, as cities could be a source for regeneration or renaissance in the current context of a resurgence of protectionism and questioning of multilateralism.  Empowering cities manage transnational challenges and will be increasingly more capable to act as global players by developing new mechanisms for cooperation and common decision making in order to address joint challenges together. Urban leadership is paving the way in fighting and mitigating climate change. City diplomacy is contributing to conflict prevention, peace-building and post-conflict reconstruction. Moreover, cities and subnational spaces are crucial geopolitical sites in relation to security policies and the fight against terrorism. They are also at the forefront of receiving refugees and developing migrant integration strategies and often are the most powerful players to reduce polarization and radicalization in our multi-cultural and fragmented societies.  There are nevertheless real obstacles to cities as global players, since they are considered as "sub" or "infra-national entities". Despite the fact that cities are now also part of negotiations within international organisations and have increasing economic and demographic significance both in developed and developing and countries, the role of cities which are not subject to international public law, is not fully recognized either by global governance or in public debates. Thus, in order to increase their influence on global governance, cities have gathered and formed global networks. There are more intercity networks today than international organisations. This form of city activism or city diplomacy favoured by a new generation of mayors has brought a new dimension to multilateralism. Picture : Inter-city networks flourish with the rise of "diplomacity" Source : “Connectography – Mapping the future of global civilization” – Parag Khanna 7 TREND 3 - FROM CITIES TO NODES  A new map is emerging, showing on all continents functional gravities and increasing interdependence between city-states, which are becoming the capitals of mega-regions driven by greater connectivity. Large and megacities are indeed both key players in and beneficiaries of global connectivity, which is gradually undermining national roots and replacing them with new bonds and interlinkages. The start of the 21st century has therefore witnessed the rising phenomenon of multicity clusters, along with the emergence of megacities corridors, which are already shaping the ineluctable evolution of the urbanization process.  A polycentric megacity model emerged in the most urbanized parts of the world: the polycentric megacity region. At least a dozen megacity corridors have already gradually superseded nation states as centre of gravity. This phenomenon has arisen through a long process of extensive decentralization from big central cities to adjacent and smaller old or new towns. The most dynamic business environment is typically located in the capital city regions. The concept of "Borrowed agglomeration" benefits, indeed, of peri-urban regions located close to big cities to improve their productivity. These locations are physically separated but form a functional network. It seems, for example, that China is in the process of reorganizing itself around giant megacity clusters. Picture : China's functional reorganisation around megacity clusters Source : “Connectography – Mapping the future of global civilization” – Parag Khanna  We have also noticed the beginning of new urban forms that in some cases even transcend national boundaries. As an anti-nation city, Dubai is the precursor of a new scale of urban organisation and can be considered as a model for interregional gateways. The cities of the future will certainly be city gateways, defined as well-connected global hubs. Cities today are indeed ranked by their influence in global networks, not by the territory they possess: connectivity matters more than size.  The power of connectivity will transform forward-thinking cities. The "smart city" is an accumulation of the Internet of Things, in which connections will be between machines rather than humans. The new generation of hyper-connected networks will be at the heart of smart cities. 5G technology will be the backbone of smart cities as soon as the next wave of wireless technologies is established. Since inevitably, local government will rely on 5G, harnessing data 10 The 20th century urban model had unexpected consequences. Going forward, the future of cities will result in new urban forms, patterns of behaviour and resource use. More compact and better- connected, low carbon cities could save as much as USD 3 trillion in urban infrastructure spending over the next 15 years. The start of this century has proved to be a transition phase, and cities must prepare for the shift towards being resource-constrained sustainable cities where the issue of food production, the consumption system and sustainable energy production within cities will be pivotal. Can we manage the accumulation of risks due to excessive overpopulation?  In global terms, megacities and large cities must develop a sustainable and resilient environment. Uncertainties relating to urbanization revolve around the issue of risk management, which entails managing the consequences of urban overcrowding. Urbanization indeed impacts the risk of amplification and transmission of infectious diseases and pandemics. Most megacities are also vulnerable to at least one type of natural disaster. The combination of floods, earthquakes and fires will lead to massive environmental problems, becoming a security issue for the cities. Particular focus should be given to establishing a new relationship with water, in order to combat the effects of climate change and growth of urban health risks.  Urbanization grow will continue to concentrate in coastal areas in the future. Three quarter of large and megacities are located in low coastal areas and 275 million people worldwide live in zones which will eventually be flooded when global warm reaches 3°C. Megacities are therefore particularly vulnerable to climate events as many of the world's largest cities are located in low- lying coastal areas. The regional impact of these changes is uneven: the most affected people live in Asia and the most vulnerable megacity in the world to serious flooding is Shanghai.  Value concentration in megacities also results in an accumulation of risks, which tend to be interdependent. Increasing urbanization leads to the concentration of goods and services in critical infrastructures. National and local leaders must therefore be equipped to face risks both from natural and human made disasters along with their consequences in terms of economic losses. This can be done by limiting the social and economic impact of those risks and by planning for business interruption scenarios. In the future, cities will be increasingly strategic sites for geopolitical struggles which can no longer be ignored: new urban defences are needed to protect public spaces from terrorism threats, violence and insecurity.  There is a negative trend in regard to disasters. If global governance further deteriorates, megacities will be more vulnerable to external shocks due to big gaps in the global governance system which affect major areas including energy, food, water and climate change. Disaster preparedness and reduced vulnerability are part of the equation. With the magnitude of urban risk increasing, cities must develop their own policy tools to reduce risk exposure. Can we mitigate the consequences of the urban divide?  Citizens living in large cities benefit the most from globalization and urbanization which has led to poverty reduction. Nevertheless, megacities reinforce disparities whose consequences are difficult to predict. Those disparities have increased between East and West, between developing and developed countries. On one hand, we can observe powerful mature megacities such as New York, Tokyo and London, which have a concentration of talent and opportunities for investment, growth, human capital and innovation. However their population is rather in stagnation or in regression. On the other hand, developing post-growth megacities are evidently characterised by growing population and its consequences such as unplanned slums, enormous inequalities, weak administrations, basic services, congestion and air pollution. 11  Megacities reinforce inequalities between rich and poor, leading to the fragmentation of society. Urban divide and segregation also enhance social inequalities and gender equity. Gate communities are the physical manifestations of rising levels of inequality in urban areas and are seen as a response to insecurity in the US, but also in Latin America. They will be more and more significant in the future, expanding the polarization, privatisation and segmentation of urban space, along with segregation between social groups.  Polarization could lead to growing urban conflicts. The recent concept of urban geopolitics can offer a valuable perspective to a better understanding of the contemporary juncture. In the current unstable world, political leaders must be more attentive to the geopolitical consequences of urban territories and their management. Since the combination of mass urbanization and forced international migration will lead also to a rise in global urban inequalities, reunifying divided cities is the objective of the contested cities movement, which aims to demonstrate the negative consequences of urban segregation policies and suggests new urban alternatives. Questions for discussion:  What are the advantages and risks of megacities in terms of global stability?  Is urbanization the best tool to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs 2030)?  For policy makers and companies, the shifting gravity of the global urban landscape is a key concern. Which cities are likely to shape the 21st century: megacities, global cities and/or smart cities?  Can we envisage a saturation point in terms of growth and what would its consequences be ? There are indeed indications that smaller cities might continue to grow faster than megacities.  Will megacities drive global growth in the future? Or not? Some predict that megacities in China and India will underperform economically (preference for smaller cities in terms of investment).  Is urbanization the future of Africa and what are the implications for the European Union?  Is the 21st century leading to a more urban inclusive society or a greater polarization between places that matter and place that don't matter? 3. IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN UNION The European Union is one of the most urbanized areas in the world and towns and cities are a core part of European integration. The European Union became tardily aware of the need to use its full potential in working towards a shared vision of urban development by including local and urban authorities in a common framework of action: "An urban agenda for the EU". Signed on 30 May 2016, the Pact of Amsterdam sets out its objectives, as umbrella for the policy initiatives aimed to establish a more coherent and integrated approach to EU policies and legislation with an impact on urban areas. The Urban Agenda for the EU is also the main mechanism to implement the UN New Urban Agenda and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, as well as to support the EU to meet the 2030 SDGs. The first assessment of its implementation after almost two years demonstrates the need for a binding political commitment in order to formalise the process as well as a strategic framework for a post-2020 Urban Agenda. The map of European cities gives a different but not divergent perspective on the future of urbanization than in other continents. Europe is also fully confronted with growing urbanization and the need to master its impact as well as the conjunction of major global trends. However, the scale of an urban concentration of around 15-20 million inhabitants is not common in Europe. The European Union is indeed distinguished by the number of its small and medium towns. The expansion of metropolitan city regions is also an increasing phenomenon in the European Union which will continue in the future. 12 This must lead to following questions : - How are European cities concerned with major trends? - What are the major risks faced by European cities and the consequences of massive urbanization on the European Union? - What are the strengths of European cities in global competition? - What attitude must Europe adopt vis-à-vis its cities? Key issues for discussion: 1. The attractiveness of European cities The future of European cities will depend on their attractiveness. Indeed, to be competitive, a city must be attractive to individuals and companies and offer a high level of well-being. The European cities are particularly well placed in the ranking of the "cities of opportunity". Those cities are indeed knowledge-based and have a great economic potential. Progressively the criteria of sustainability and resilience will make the difference. Furthermore, balanced social and economic strengths will prevail in the future for this model of gateway cities which combine strong intellectual capital and a high quality of life. London, Paris, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Berlin are at the front place of a digitally and physically connected, knowledge based world. It is difficult to predict what Brexit may mean for the future of London as a pre-eminent global city, but the European Union must anticipate the consequences of its loss as a city gateway. Picture : The urban elite Global Power City Index 2017 Source : MFF : Institute for Urban strategies Digital transformation will be the most important catalyst for European cities. They are generally well positioned on the global stage, due to a strong technology base and the sufficient roll out of applications. However, they lag behind in public usage. In Europe, smart city transformation nevertheless requires significant funding and must be accelerated in order for users to be able to make the most out of available technology. The attractiveness of European cities will depend on the capacity of the European Union, in the face of global competition, to provide sufficient investment in three key sectors : sustainability, mobility and digital. 15 depopulation and unemployment are strongly connected, they are indeed serious risks for populism. In that respect, population decline seems to be the real factor behind the rise of geography of discontent. On the contrary or in addition, for the United Kingdom European membership referendum 2016, the generation split was preponderant. Picture : Population change and populism 2018 Picture : UK European Membership referendum 2016 : Vote by age : the generation split Source : LSE (Andres Rodriguez Pose) Source : Lord Ashcrofts Polls (BBC) Populists use territorial strategies. Economic, social and territorial inequalities are linked to more votes for parties that oppose EU integration. The success of populist non-urban votes is also connected to the level of representation in the national parliamentary system. Populism's rise in Europe as well as in the US is not only a product of economic inequality or even economic anxiety but also a cultural backlash against urbanism and the values of globalism and cosmopolitism that are characterized the large cities. The decline of the middle class, the broken escalator of social mobility – linked to the rising domination of the "elites" of the "global cities" – and the urban/rural divide feed contemporary populism. The concept of "territorial resilience" is part of the solution in terms of policy responses. However, there is a need to improve understanding of local concerns and to address policy responses to growing inequities. Meeting the expectations of European citizens and closing the growing gap between people's expectations and the EU's ability to deliver call for a recognition of the potential of multilevel governance. The increasing concentration of Europeans in cities makes it necessary to rethink their weight and role in the functioning of European democracy and benefit from their added value in the process of European integration. Picture : Trust in different levels of government 2008-2018 (source : Eurobarometre) 16 What lessons could we learned from the urban multilevel governance model? What are the policy responses regarding European governance? All barometer polls confirm that elected local politicians benefit from the highest levels of trust from European citizens. How can we capitalize on this constant trend in the European democratic system to better reach out to EU citizens? 17 Bibliography - ESPAS report "2030 Global Trends to 2030 : Can the EU meet challenges ahead ?" link - "World Urbanization Prospects" by United Nations: link - "Harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution for Sustainable Emerging Cities" by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with PwC and Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment: link - World Urban Forum "Cities 2030 – Cities for All: Implementing the New Urban Agenda" link - UN: Rapid Urbanization Increases Climate Risk for Billions of People; UN Outlines Inspiring Examples of Building Resilience: link - UN report explores ways urbanization can be a catalyst for rural development: link - UN: The World's cities in 2016 link OECD - The new Urban Agenda (December 2016) link - Habitat III policy paper 3 – national urban policy (February 2016) link - "The Metropolitan Century: understanding Urbanization and its Consequences" (February 2015) link - Urban policy and metropolitan reviews link - "Making Cities Work for All: Data and Actions for Inclusive Growth" (October 2016) link - A New Urban Agenda for the 21st century: The role of urbanization in sustainable development (2016) link - A 21st century vision for urbanization (2016) link - Smart Cities : Digital solutions for a more livable future (Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – June 2018) - Urban world : Mapping the economic power of cities (Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – March 2011) - Urban America : US cities in the global economy (Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – April 2012) - Building globally competitive cities : The key to Latin American growth(Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – August 2011) - India's urban awakening (Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – April 2010) - Preparing for China's urban billion (Mc Kinsey Global Institute report – February 20019) European Parliament - Report on "Role of cities in the institutional framework of the Union", link - Resolution on the Urban dimension of EU policies (September 2015) link - Resolution on European Urban Agenda and its Future in Cohesion Policy (June 2011) link EPRS briefings - Delivering the Urban Agenda for the EU (September 2017) link - Cities: Front line of climate action (October 2017) link - Moving forward with the Urban Agenda for the EU (November 2017) link - Harnessing the potential of the Urban Agenda for the European Union (June 2018) link European Commission - Cities of tomorrow: Final Report and thematic issues: Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward (2011) link - Urban agenda for EU implementation link - Report from the Commission to the Council on the Urban Agenda for the EU link European Committee of the Regions - Opinion on Implementation Assessment of the Urban Agenda for the EU (July 2018) link - Opinion on Concrete steps for implementing the EU Urban Agenda (April 2016) link - Opinion on Towards an integrated Urban Agenda for the EU (June 2014) link - Opinion on Urban Mobility Package (June 2014) link - Opinion on Urban-Rural Partnership and Governance (October 2013) link - Opinion on The role of urban regeneration in the future of urban development in Europe (June 2010) link - Study on "The growth potential of an integrated EU Urban Agenda" link European Space Agency Contribution on MEGACITIES: link - Eurostat – Urban Europe link - Eurobarometer link - "The polycentric metropolis: learning from mega-city regions in Europe" by Peter Hall and Kathy Pain: link - "City Century: Why Municipalities Are the Key to Fighting Climate Change", by Michael Bloomberg: link - Megacities: Urban Form, Governance and Sustainability: link - Megacities and Climate Change: Sustainable urban living in a changing world link - Megacities and urban health: link - Megacities on the move: link - Megacity Challenges: A stakeholder perspective: link - - "The polycentric metropolis: learning from mega-city regions in Europe" by Peter Hall and Kathy Pain: link - Cities and Urbanization / Global Issue / WEU Co-curated with: Georgetown University: Link - Urban Age: an ongoing research project. 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