Urbanization and Rural-Urban Interdependence: Definitions, Trends, and Implications, Lecture notes of Technology

Download Urbanization and Rural-Urban Interdependence: Definitions, Trends, and Implications and more Lecture notes Technology in PDF only on Docsity! The Urban-Suburban-Exurban- Rural Continuum: Definitions, Trends and Interdependences Elena Irwin Professor, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics Faculty Director, Sustainable and Resilient Economy Program Prepared for: OSU National Urban Extension Leaders Conference, The Ohio State University, Columbus OH May 24, 2016 Are the following images urban or rural? Did you have difficulties deciding? • Are cities devoid of open space and wildlife? • Do all people in the countryside hunt, farm, fish and shoot? • Is everyone living in towns and cities stressed and worried about crime? • Can farming happen in the city? • Is all rural land dedicated to agriculture or forests? • Is all industry in the city? Increasingly difficult to distinguish between rural and urban, the transition is often gradual Definitions of urban and rural • Physical: population, density, land use • Legal: government boundaries • Functional: economic flows and interactions • Cultural: ethnicity, diversity, degree of urbanity • Environmental: impervious surface, industrial pollution, urban heat island • There is no absolute or right definition—depends on your question and the purpose! Urban Areas (Population-based definition of urban and rural) • The Census Bureau's urban areas represent densely developed territory, and encompass residential, commercial, and other non-residential urban land uses. • The Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas: • Urbanized Areas (UAs) of 50,000 or more people • Urban Clusters (UCs) of at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people • "Rural" encompasses all population, housing, and territory not included within an urban area Metropolitan Statistical Areas (Functional-based definitions of urban and rural) • Metropolitan Statistical Areas: A geographical region with a relatively high population density at its core and close economic ties throughout the area; contains a population of at least 50,000 • Micropolitan Statistical Areas: One or more counties that have an urban core area of at least 10,000 population but less than 50,000 • Non-Metropolitan (or Non-Core): Any county that is not part of a metropolitan or micropolitan area • Combined Statistical Areas: a grouping of adjacent metropolitan and/or micropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) defined based on social and economic ties measured by commuting patterns between adjacent MSAs. Net Flow* of Ohio Commuters To and From Counties, 2000 Census Trumbull ote fd Net Flow* Pert) Peet | | -10,000 or greater Greene [I -9.999 to -5,000 ee... ( [MY ~4:999 to -2,500 aa [1] -2499 to-1,000 a te) j y [___]-998 to 0 : [_] 1 to 2,500 [___] 2.501 to 5,000 [0 5.001 to 7,500 Bureau of Labor Market Information Hi 7,501 to 15,000 Office of Research, Assessment, and Accountability Ohio Department of Job and Family Services HEB 15,001 and greater Columbus 43266 Ohio Metropolitan Areas ° $ Ashtabu Williams Ottawa 3 Youngstown-Warren- Detianee | Henry Sendusky | Erie Boardman, OH-PA ‘Allron Trumbull en Paulding Seneca Huron ‘Summit, Portage Pursam | so cock Mahoning Van Wert Lima Wyandot | crawford Ashlanl Wayne Columbiana a Richland Hardin Mercer | Auglaize Marion Holmes ork Morrow knox Tuscarawas L Shelby “egan le, Union| Delaware Coshocton He ke Darke i vk Champaign Licking Guernsey | Selmont io}; Columbus: Wheeling, Muskingum WV-OFF Franklin an larshall Prable edison Fairfield |) perry Noble | Monroe \unio: i Fayette | Pickaway Morgan & Butler Hocking Washington Z Warren | Clinton Ross Athens mS Hamilton Vinton incinnati, DH-KY¥-1 Highland bor 5 Meigs one! lermo Pike | co i eckson Source: OMB Bulletin No. 13-01, February 28, 2013, Cantgbell | Brown Gallia Wwww.whitehause. gov/sites/defa ult/files/omb/bulletins/2013/b 13-0 pdf iN pee Adams | Scioto fi a Prepared by: Office of Research, cone rack) o Ohio Development Services Agency rant |Pandlatn April 2013 *This map does not show Micropolitan Statistical Area [J metropolitan Statistical Ta ‘Area Non-Metropolitan Statistical Area County* LJ counties a) The Emerging Megaregions ¥ Front 8 Range Arizona Sun Corridor Piedmont. Atlantic Source: Regional Plan Association http://www.america2050.org/megaregions.html Urban-suburban-exurban-rural continuum 2013 Rural-Urban C Tm erere (13 > Nonmetro counties: size of urban population, adjacency Metro counties: (20,000 oF more, adjacent population size of metro area 20,000 or more, nonadjacent a 1 million or more (9 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent ME 250,000 to 1 million GE 2,500 to 19,999, nonadjacent M8 Fewer than 250,000 GE < 2 500 or completely rural, adjacent IB ~ 2,500 of completely rural, nonadjacent Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. Distribution of Population and Counties by Rural-Urban Continuum Code County type Population (% of total) Number of counties (% of total) Metro: 1 million or more 55% 15% Metro: 250k - 1 million 21% 12% Metro: less than 250k 9% 11% Non-metro: 20k+ adjacent to metro 4% 7% Non-metro: 20k+ non-adjacent 2% 3% Non-metro: 2.5k-20k adjacent 5% 19% Non-metro: 2.5k-20k non-adjacent 3% 13% Non-metro: less than 2.5k adjacent 1% 7% Non-metro: less than 2.5k non-adjacent 1% 13% Source: USDA ERS (2013) 95% of U.S. population lives in metro or non-metro adjacent county Two types of urban-rural linkages • Globalized (non-local) linkages between cities and many rural areas “Mobile phones manufactured in the city of Shenzhen, China (…) will be shipped and used to facilitate trade and social relations in hundreds or thousands of villages in Africa and Asia. The food consumed in Lagos or in Abuja (…), or the immigrants flowing into them, come from all over Nigeria, the region and the world, and not just from the proximate rural areas” (Berdegué et al. 2014). • Local linkages between urban (city, suburbs) and the surrounding exurban-rural area Source: IINAS (2015) Urban-Rural Linkages and Global Sustainable Land Use Example #1: Urban Spillovers: Good or Bad for Rural Areas? • Urban spread (positive spillovers for rural areas) • Attract businesses and people to nearby exurban/rural areas; urban residents or businesses that like rural amenities • Urban backwash (negative spillovers for rural areas) • Cities act as vacuums for one-way flows of human capital and resources (“rural flight”) • Research hypotheses • “Spread effect” dominates up to a certain distance at which people can easily commute in and out of the city • “Backwash effect” dominates as distance increases, which increases the probability that individuals relocate to the city instead of commuting Rural Population Growth and Proximity to Urban/Suburban Regions Source: Veneri and Ruiz (2016) • Partridge et al. (2007): Find that spread effect dominates up to 100 miles based on population growth study of Canadian regions • Veneri and Ruiz (2016) find similar results for EU and US regions: U.S. average carbon footprint per household (tons) by type of place Source: Jones and Kammen (2014) Environmental Science and Technology 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CO 2 eq ui va le nt (t on s) p er h ou se ho ld Example #2: Intended and unintended effects of land use regulation • Comprehensive land-use planning (CP) can help address issues of sprawl, fragmentation, and relieve environmental pressure • Ihlanfeldt (2009) found investments in CP lead to higher house prices (after controlling for effect of increased taxes to fund policies) in Florida; for every $100 increase in per-capita funding for CP, house prices increased by 0.2% • Open space preservation policies can lead to greater sprawl • Lichtenberg (2011) examined open space preservations policies and forest planting requirements in Maryland and found that both resulted in lower density development and increased sprawl • Differences in regulations can foster more exurban development • Wrenn and Irwin (2015) examine differences in subdivision approval times and find that greater delays in more heavily regulated suburban areas increase the probability of less regulated, lower density exurban development Example #3: Regional food distribution and retail networks • Good Natured Family Farms Alliance is a coalition of 150 independent family farms in the Kansas City region working together under a single marketing umbrella • Urban partnership: Ball's Central Warehouse is key to solving the logistical problems of moving a large volume of local food from the family farms to the urban consumers Pre vs. Post Recession: Urban Core vs. Exurban Population Trends • Urban core population growth rates withstood the recession but have been falling as the economy recovers • Exurban growth rates steeply declined during the recession, but have recovered Source: Brookings (http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/04/08-migration-suburbs-sun-belt-frey) Pre vs. Post Recession: Trends in Housing Units (2000-2015) • Urban areas have highest rate of growth • Suburbs show a smaller growth rate than urban • Exurban areas declined • Pre-recession growth rates (2000-2007) • Urban (10%) Suburban (11%) Exurban (6%) • Post Recession growth rates (2010-2015) • Urban (3%) Suburban (3%) Exurban (-8%) - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 Year Estimates Housing Units by Place Type, 2000-2015 Urban (n=879) Suburban (n=1204) Exurban (n=1056) Source: US Census Housing Estimates based on USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes Implications for the future of urban-suburban- exurban-rural growth and interdependence? • For example, will growth once again fuel suburban and exurban growth will “sprawl” return? • It would be a mistake to base future predictions on past trends… …we must look beyond trends to see how the causes of urban/suburban/exurban growth and sources of interdependencies are changing Greater proportion of non-family households 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 50 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01 20 04 20 07 Nonfamily Households Married, Family Households Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2009 12% 34% Implication: Increased demand for urban living 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Downtowns Cities Suburbs Families with children Families without children Non-Families Data source: 2000 U.S. Census Bureau Source: Birch “Who Lives Downtown” from Urban and Suburban America: Evidence from the 2000 Census, Berube, Katz and Lang , eds. (2006) Aging baby boomers Source: Cromartie and Nelson (2009) USDA ERS report 79 1. Demographic changes 2. Technological changes 3. Market changes 4. Policy changes Fundamental forces Fuel efficiency increasing as manufacturers respond to: • Government policies, ex: National Fuel Efficiency Policy (May 2009) • Standard for new cars and light trucks from 25 to 35.5 MPG • $2.4 billion invested in electric/hybrid vehicle technology • Consumer demand driven by long-term higher gas prices • EV and Hybrids: small but growing demand Implications for outer growth • Higher gas prices in long run will lessen the demand for outer living… • But this could be offset by increased fuel efficiency  increased fuel efficiency could lead to increased sprawl Percentage Change in Income since 1979 by Income Group in U.S. Uncertain fuel costs Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Oil Prices October 14, 2015 5 ir ‘ ty OO ee Ni if if SPOR ay Ciel T T T T T T T T T 1 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15, “@> Diesel (AAA) $2.53 —@ Gasoline (AAA) $2.30 = WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX) $1.11 Source: NYMEX (WTI crude oil) and AAA (gasoline 1. Demographic changes 2. Technological changes 3. Market changes 4. Policy changes Fundamental forces of sprawl Local and regional: Sustainable communities and balanced growth • Example: NE Ohio Balanced Growth Program “best local land use practices” includes: • Identify priority development areas • Identify priority conservation areas • Plan for open space preservation • Plan for transfer of development rights • Plan for agricultural protection Implications of new policies • Energy policy that targets carbon emissions will increase the cost of refining gasoline producing electricity with nonrewables • Higher electricity and gas prices for consumers will reduce demand for large houses and car travel • However, advances in fuel efficiency may ameliorate the effects of rising gas prices • More stringent land use controls may lower the supply of developable land in outer areas and slow growth • However this depends on how the policies are implemented , e.g., lack of coordination can result in more sprawl In conclusion: the future of urban-suburban- exurban-rural growth and interdependence? Promote outward growth Promote urban densification Demographics For some households: growing pull of natural amenities in rural areas Increasing diversity of households and demand for urban living Technology Continued IT advances and greater fuel efficiency Some alternative forms of transportation Markets Renewed economic growth Stagnate economy and tighter credit markets; oversupply of housing; long-term increases in gas prices; increasing demands for undeveloped land Policies Increased lending regulations; alternative energy policies; increased land use regulations