2020 Soccer League Predictions: Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, Exercises of Social Psychology of Emotion

Download 2020 Soccer League Predictions: Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1 and more Exercises Social Psychology of Emotion in PDF only on Docsity! > er nefootball SIMULATION SEASON 2019/20 Football is back! The German Bundesliga will be the first major European league to resume action this upcoming weekend. To fuel the excitement, Onefootball’s data and statistical specialists decided to run a simulator to predict how the rest of the season could play out in the German Bundesliga, the English Premier League, the Italian Serie A and the Spanish La Liga. The simulation, processed using an algorithm specifically developed for this purpose, also features the French Ligue 1 showing how the season could have panned out if it had not been abandoned. The simulation delivers a season end scenario by defining each club’s chances of finishing in the most relevant league positions (i.e. championship, UCL/UEL Qualification, relegation). The method uses the relative strengths of teams developed over their 10 most recent home and away matches and is based on input data, such as goals scored/ conceded, shots on target and a home advantage indicator. With over 155.000 simulations for each league, the calculation provides a reliable scientific prediction of the 2019/20 season. Introduction 2 Liverpool Manchester City Leicester City Chelsea Manchester United 0%0%0%0% 100% Who will win the Premier League? 5 Liverpool will win the Premier League with 100% certainty. In over 150,000 simulations there was no case in which Liverpool did not win the title. Manchester City will most likely finish second followed by Leicester City and Chelsea Liverpool Manchester City Leicester City Chelsea Manchester United 31% 50% 88% 99%100% Who will qualify for the
 Champions League? 6 Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester and Chelsea will most likely qualify for the Champions League 2020/21. Manchester United still have a 31% chance to reach one of the top-four spots Manchester United Wolverhampton Wanderers Sheffield United Tottenham Hotspur Arsenal 9%9% 11% 15% 24% Who will qualify for the
 Europa League? 7 Manchester United have the highest probability to qualify for the UEFA Europa League followed by Wolves FC Bayern München Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayer Leverkusen 2%5%12%16% 65% Who will win the Bundesliga? Bayern Munich have a 65% chance of winning the league followed by Borussia Dortmund (16%);
 RB Leipzig (12%); Borussia Mönchengladbach; (5%) and BayerLeverkusen (2%) 10 FC Bayern München Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayer Leverkusen 56% 68% 86%89% 99% Who will qualify for the
 Champions League? Bayern Munich (99%), Borussia Dortmund (89%), RB Leipzig (86%) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (68%) are the clubs with the best chance of securing one of the top-four league spots, which will ensure qualification for the Champions League. Leverkusen (56%) are likely to miss out. 11 B04 Leverkusen VFL Wolfsburg FC Schalke 04 1. FC Köln SC Freiburg TSG Hoffenheim Union Berlin Eintracht Frankfurt 1%3% 15%15%16%17% 33% 42% Who will qualify for the
 Europa League? Leverkusen and Wolfsburg have a 42% and 33% chance respectively to qualify for next season’s UEFA Europa League. Schalke,Köln, Freiburg and Hoffenheim are likely to miss out 12 FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Getafe 1%1% 39% 58% Who will win La Liga? 15 Barcelona have a 58% chance of win La Liga followed by Real Madrid who still have a 39% chance of securing this season’s title. They are followed by Sevilla and Getafe who have a less than 5% chance FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Getafe Sociedad Atletico Madrid Valencia 7% 35%41% 52% 59% 98%99% Who will qualify for the
 Champions League? 16 Barcelona and Real Madrid fans can be quite certain that their team will play Champions League football next season with Sevilla (59%) and Getafe (52%) having the highest chance to join them Atletico Madrid Sociedad Getafe Sevilla Valencia Villareal Granada 12%14% 23% 31% 34% 40%40% Who will qualify for the
 Europa League? 17 Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad have the same chance to qualify for the UEFA Europa League 2020/21, with one of the teams having to go through the play-offs. As Getafe and Sevilla will most likely qualify for the Champions League,Valencia and Villarreal will challenge Atlético and Sociedad for a Europa League spot will be. The percentages show the cumulated probability to qualify either 5th or 6th in the table Juventus Turin Lazio Inter Atalanta 0% 4% 38% 58% Who will win Serie A? 20 Juventus have a 58% chance to win Serie A. Runners-up will most likely be Lazio. They, though, still have a 38% chance to win the title, which provides a situation for an exciting season finish. Inter Milan have less than 10% chance to win the league title Juventus Turin Lazio Inter Atalanta AS Roma Napoli Hellas Verona 1%2% 29% 69% 97%99%100% Who will qualify for the Champions League? 21 Lazio, Juventus, Inter and Atalanta will most likely finish in the top four spots, which will qualify them for the UEFA Champions League. Roma have a 29% chance to secure one of these spots and are likely to miss out AS Roma Napoli Hellas Verona AC Milan Parma Sassuolo 10% 17%19%19% 29% 60% Who will qualify for the Europa League? 22 Roma are likely to miss out on the Champions League but they have a high probability (60%) of qualifing for the UEFA Europa League. Napoli are likely to secure the UEFA Europa League League play-off spot (8%), while Verona, Milan and Parma are expected to miss out on qualification for European competition. Percentages show the cumulated probability to qualify either 5th or 6th in the table. Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Marseille Stade Rennais Lille 0%0%1% 99% Who would have won Ligue 1? 25 In all iterations of the simulation there was only 1% of all cases in which PSG did not win the title. As a result, their chances of winning the French title after 38 matchdays was extremely high (99%). Marseille would have been the only team with a theoretical chance of catching them Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Marseille Stade Rennais Lille 9%24% 65% 100% Who would have qualified for the
 Champions League? 26 Marseille had the greatest chance (65%) to secure the second Champions League spot behind PSG, followed by Stade Rennes Lille Rennes Olympique Marseille Olympique Lyon Nice Strasbourg Stade Reims 4%5%6%7%8% 23% 36% Who would have qualified for the Europa League? 27 Lille would have had the highest chance to qualify for UEFA Europa League. As Rennes and Marseille would have battled for Champions League, Lyon would have been Lille's biggest competitor