Urban Transportation, Slides of Public Health

Download Urban Transportation and more Slides Public Health in PDF only on Docsity! 491 Urban Transportation Coordinating Lead Authors Shagun Mehrotra (New York/Indore), Eric Zusman (Hayama) Lead Authors Jitendra N. Bajpai (New York/Mumbai), Lina Fedirko (New York/San Francisco), Klaus Jacob (New York), Michael Replogle (Washington D.C./New York), Matthew Woundy (Boston), Susan Yoon (New York) Contributing Authors Ken Doust (Lismore) and John Black (Sydney) 13 This chapter should be cited as Mehrotra, S., Zusman, E., Bajpai, J. N., Fedirko, L., Jacob, K., Replogle, M., Woundy, M., and Yoon, S. (2018). Urban transportation. In Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, P. Romero-Lankao, S. Mehrotra, S. Dhakal, and S. Ali Ibrahim (eds.), Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Cambridge University Press. New York. 491–518 ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 492 • Low-carbon transport systems yield co-benefits that can reduce implementation costs, yet policy-makers often need more than a good economic case to capture potential savings. • Integrated low-carbon transport strategies – Avoid-Shift- Improve – involve avoiding travel through improved mixed land-use planning and other measures; shifting passengers to more efficient modes through provision of high-quality, high-capacity mass transit systems; and improving vehicle design and propulsion technologies to reduce fuel use. • Designing and implementing risk-reduction solutions and mitigation strategies require supportive policy and public–private investments. Key ingredients include employing market-based mechanisms; promoting infor- mation and communication technologies; building syner- gies across land-use and transport planning; and refining regulations to encourage mass transit and non-motorized modes. Key Messages Co-benefits such as improved public health, better air quality, reduced congestion, mass transit development, and sustainable infrastructure can make low-carbon transport more affordable and can yield significant urban development advantages. For many transport policy-makers, co-benefits are primary entry points for reducing GHG emissions. Moreover, policy-makers should find innovative ways to price the externalities – the unat- tributed costs – of carbon-based fuels. The interdependencies between transport and other urban sectors mean that disruptions to transport can have citywide impacts. To minimize disruptions due to such interdepen- dencies, policy-makers should take a systems approach to risk management that explicitly addresses the intercon- nectedness of climate, transport, and other relevant urban sectors. Low-carbon transport should also be socially inclusive because social equity can improve a city’s resilience to climate change impacts. Automobile-focused urban transport systems fail to provide mobility for significant segments of urban pop- ulations. Women, the elderly, the poor, non-drivers, and disad- vantaged people need urban transport systems that go beyond enabling mobility to fostering social mobility as well. Transport as Climate Challenge and Solution Urban transport systems are major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and are essential to developing resilience to cli- mate impacts. At the same time, cities need to move forward quickly to adopt a new paradigm that ensures access to clean, safe, and affordable mobility for all. In middle-income countries, rising incomes are spurring demand for low-cost vehicles, and, together with rapid and sprawling urbanization and segregated land use, this is posing unprecedented challenges to sustainable development while con- tributing to climate change. Expanded climate-related financing mechanisms are being developed at national and international levels, such as the Green Climate Fund. Local policy-makers should prepare the institu- tional capacity and policy frameworks needed to access financ- ing for low-carbon and resilient transport. Major Findings • Cities account for approximately 70% of CO2 emissions (depending on measurement protocols), with a signifi- cant proportion due to urban transport choices. The trans- port sector directly accounted for nearly 30% of total end-use energy-related CO2 emissions. Of these, direct emissions from urban transport account for 40%. • Urban transport emissions are growing at 2–3% annually. The majority of emissions from urban transport are from higher-income countries. In contrast, 90% of the growth in emissions is from transport systems in lower-income countries. • Climate-related shocks to urban transportation have econ- omy-wide impacts, beyond disruptions to the movement of people and goods. The interdependencies between transpor- tation and other economic, social, and environmental sectors can lead to citywide impacts. • Integrating climate risk reduction into transport planning and management is necessary in spatial planning and land-use regulations. Accounting for these vulnerabilities in transport decisions can ensure that residential and economic activities are concentrated in low-risk zones. Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 495 therefore require context-appropriate assessments (PlaNYC, 2013; Transport Research Board [TRB], 2014). Gradual change in climate-induced hazards receives less attention than more immediate changes in relevant research. Long-term gradual changes in temperature and precipitation pat- terns stress and test the design strength of urban transit systems. Climate hazards have indirect or secondary impacts as well. Heat waves may impose health hazards on passengers or damage freight. Likewise, extreme heat and precipitation events limit the time of day and duration of safe work hours for experts to restore transit system disruptions (Hodges, 2011; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014). The second set of vectors are internal vulnerabilities due to the physical, social, and economic conditions of the city and its trans- portation system. These can be measured through the size and density of the population, topography, proportion of poor popula- tion, concentration of economic activity in cities, and the condi- tion of transportation systems. Aging and obsolete transportation assets such as bridges, roads, and railways make urban transport infrastructure in the developed world vulnerable (American Society of Civil Engineers [ASCE], 2013). The absence of ade- quate and reliable urban transport systems and the widespread reliance of poor populations on walking and use of bicycles in developing-country cities increase the vulnerabilities of the poor during heat waves or floods (Mehrotra, 2012a; UN-Habitat, 2013; Revi et al., 2014). Each city’s modal mix is different and combines the preferences of travelers, land-use-induced trip ori- gins and destinations, and supply of transportation alternatives, ranging from individual modes such as cars and bicycles to mass transit systems of trains and buses. The particular combination of these urban mobility choices along with existing socioeconomic, topographical, and other urban conditions in a city shape the vul- nerability of the urban transit systems and its users (European Commission, 2013). The third set of vectors is response capacity. Response capac- ity measures refer to a city’s urban transport–related institu- tional attributes and its actors. These capacities determine the Table 13.2 Transportation sector interdependencies. Adapted from URS, 2010 Transportation Depends on Energy Transport sector is reliant on electricity for signage and lighting Electrified rail network Flooding of oil refineries and depots disrupt supply Electric cars reliant on recharging stations Energy Dependence on Transport Operator access to power stations during severe weather Access to local distribution facilities Raw material supply depends Road, rail, and ports disruption curtails fuel supply Transportation Depends on Water Drain design and maintenance impact road and rail flooding Water supply for rail and road vehicle cleaning and refill provisions Water Dependence on Transport Wastewater sludge requires transport to off-site disposal Road access to treatment works, pumping stations Overland transport of potable water during floods or service disruption Transportation Depends on ICT ICT enabled transport road signage or rail signaling Disruption of telecommunication and Internet services curtail communication for transport Intermodal Dependencies Road failure impact on rail Airports and seaports dependent on road and rail Rail failure leads to diversion of traffic onto roads degree of its capability to respond to potential climate change impacts. Variables that can determine the extent of a city’s ability to adapt its transport systems include the structure and capacity of institutions, presence of adaptation and mitigation programs, and motivation of change agents. The greater the ability (insti- tutional structure, caliber, resources, information, analysis) and willingness of actors to proactively respond to climate change, the higher the capacity to act, and ceteris paribus, the lower the impact. New York’s transit system offers an example of reduc- ing risk through preventive measures (NYC, 2013). Key actors for such response include city governments, their urban trans- port-related constituent departments, the private sector, civil society, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and academics (Mehrotra, 2009). In sum, urban transport risks are shaped by the hazard expo- sure, existing system vulnerabilities, and response capacity, both ex-ante and ex-post. Extreme events convert risks to costs to the urban transport infrastructure. Hurricane Sandy demonstrated that even a well-managed city like New York was vulnerable to climate risks despite a robust early warning system (Kaufman et al., 2012). In resource-constrained cities in the developing world, impacts of severe climate events are more disruptive. Road net- works of major cities like Mumbai frequently flood during mon- soons and lack adequate access for emergency and evacuation efforts, while settlements of the urban poor are placed at greater risk by a lack of access to public transit or emergency plan- ning (Revi et al., 2014). A storm of the magnitude of Hurricane Sandy, which brought storm surges of more than 9 feet to New York (Blake et al., 2013), pose many-fold higher risks for cities that lack preparedness. While there is limited research estimating costs of climate change on urban transport infrastructure (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009), extreme weather events offer some insights. Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy (Jacob et al., 2011) in the United States or typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines (Kostro et al., 2013) cost billions of dollars in direct and indirect transit system damages and disrup- tion to the economy (Hodges, 2011; Koetse, 2009). In New York, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority reported US$5.8 billion ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 496 in recovery projects after landfall by Hurricane Sandy, while dam- age to additional transportation infrastructure stock in New York totaled US$2.5 billion (Blake et al., 2013). Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 cost approximately US$1.1 billion in infrastruc- ture damages in New Orleans (Grenzeback and Lukmann, 2007). Flooding affects noncoastal urban transport systems as well (U.S. DOT, 2014). In Chicago, the damage to flooded transport sys- tems and associated delays amounted to US$48 million in 1996 (Changnon, 1999). In developing-country cities, the cost of dam- ages to land-based transport systems, including buses, cars, and rail, underrepresent the total cost to firms and households because poor households and small firms rely on several alternate modes like bicycles, carts, walking, and other non-motorized modes. The preceding sets of risks are significant by themselves, but urban transport systems are interconnected. Thus, failure in one system produces failures in transport and other systems. Road and rail networks are increasingly dependent on the energy, water, and information and communications technology sec- tors and are interlinked to other modes of transportation (URS, 2010). Transportation infrastructure risks compound risks to households and firms (Revi et al., 2014). Table 13.2 illustrates interdependencies between transport and other sectors. Cascading failures of transportation systems impede disaster response. City transportation planners increasingly need to pre- pare transportation networks for pre- and post-disaster response (e.g., the evacuation of residents prior to storms, floods, and landslides, and the delivery of food, water, medical supplies). Not all cities are adequately prepared for extreme climate events (Revi et al., 2014). To illustrate, the impacts of Typhoon Haiyan were made worse because the storm destroyed roads that link sec- ondary cities to better equipped primary urban centers (Kostro et al., 2013). Power failure in parts of New York during Hurricane Sandy disrupted traffic control systems and pump operations, making it difficult to remove water from subway facilities and to fuel cars at gas stations (PlanNYC, 2013). 13.3 Adaptation Options and Strategies for Climate-Resilient Transport 13.3.1 Types of Adaptation Adaptation solutions can offer the twin benefits of reducing impacts of climate change on urban transport as well as down- stream consequences (see Figure 13.3). Adaptation measures to reduce impacts of extreme climate events as well as gradual change in climate trends can be unpacked by scales and scopes of impact into short, medium, and long-term tactics (quick-fix), projects (tasks), programs (systems), and policies (institutional arrangements and processes). Some recommended measures include tactics such as relocating facilities and vehicles to avoid damage during storms; projects such as retrofitting facilities to protect existing infrastructure, altering train speeds and sched- ules, and upgrading stormwater drainage systems; programs such Figure 13.3 Adaptation to reduce impacts and consequences: policies, program, projects, and tactics. Source: Adapted from Melillo et al., 2014 Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 497 Table 13.3 Climate change hazards, impacts, and adaptation solutions Hazard (Impact) Transport module Adaptation Solution Temperature (Speed) Roads, rail, transit vehicles, private vehicles Milling out ruts (tactic); laying of more heat resistant materials such as asphalt for roads (project) Heat-tolerant metals for rail and rail connections (project) Floods (Congestion, delays, accidents) Drainage system; roads, rails, subways; transit vehicles, private vehicles Deploy early warning systems – remote sensing technology to detect flood levels (program) Dikes and barriers (project) Enhancing the performance of drainage systems and contingency rechanneling of water (program) Enhance use of pumps (project) Elevation of structures (project) Storms (Lower visibility, delays, accidents, cancelled trips, closure or reduction in capacity of routes) Roads, bridges, rails, airports, subways, transit and private vehicles Arrangement to park vehicles in secure garages (tactic) Enhancing emergency evacuation planning (program) Constructing protective barriers (project) Increasing clearance for bridges (project) Anchoring vulnerable structures (tactic) Preparedness of equipment and material for repairs (tactic, management) Note: Tactics (quick-fix), projects (tasks), programs (systems), and policies (institutions and processes). Source: Mehrotra et al. (2011, 2015) as building new facilities to climate-resilient standards; and poli- cies that incorporate climate projections into maintenance cycles (Mehrotra et al., 2011; Zimmerman, 2012; Melillo et al., 2014). Adaptation measures to reduce the consequences of climate change impacts on urban transport in the short-term range from the tactics of rerouting passenger flows and substituting modes of transport, to projects such as building in network flexibility and rebuilding damaged facilities. In the medium term, pro- grams such as creating traveler information systems and policies for regulating land use in vulnerable areas and developing evac- uation contingency strategies should be considered (Mehrotra et al., 2011; Melillo et al., 2014). Long-term adaptation mea- sures for risk reduction include recalibrating design standards that incorporate climate change projections and considering the service life of transportation systems. In some cases, short- and medium-term policies are more effective for addressing flood- ing and sea level rise over a 30- to 40-year period. Long-term policies may focus on projected temperature variations over a 40- to 100-year period (Meyer, 2008). Table 13.3 summarizes the climate change hazards, impacts, and associated adaptation solutions. Temporal parsing of policies is desirable, as is con- stant monitoring and recalibration of policies (Mehrotra, 2012a) that respond to changing climate risk information. 13.3.2 Urban Planning, Transport Engineering, and Design Solutions To mainstream adaptation measures in the planning, design, and implementation of transport projects, cities need new poli- cies, standards, and codes that address transport system vulner- abilities. With long-term change in environmental factors that are likely to expose urban transport infrastructure to intense and frequent floods, strong winds, and rising temperature, cit- ies should consider reducing risks through the integration of high-probability scenarios in the design of transport systems and associated citywide interdependent systems (Meyer, 2008). These practices and procedures are equally relevant for new cap- ital-intensive investments as well as for routine retrofits for rail systems, roadways, bridges, vehicles, and other interdependent urban systems that have life expectancies of 50–100 years. For many cities, urban transport adaptation requires a compre- hensive reassessment of design practices and procedures. These include climate change risk assessment and the identification and selection of the appropriate mix of policies, programs, projects, and tactical responses parsed over the short and long term that incorporate new research, recalibrate maintenance and operations procedures, and asset management (Hodges, 2011; Filosa, 2015). Examples of climate change integration into transport design standards and adaptation initiatives can be found predominantly at the national level. Canadian, British, Danish, and New Zealand departments of transport have developed adaptation action plans and set goals for resiliency (Filosa, 2015). Canadian public infra- structure programs have re-engineered construction protocols to reduce system vulnerabilities. The Danish road department has incorporated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-based precipitation projections to recalibrate drainage standards and road regulations. Korean, British, and New Zealand transport agencies have altered design standards, improved drain- age structures, and retrofitted bridges in accordance with precipi- tation projections and recalibrated flood levels (Filosa, 2015). New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority offers a rare example of urban transport-specific comprehensive adaptation planning and implementation (see Case Study 13.1). ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 500 Case Study 13.1 Figure 2 Example of subway service updates posted on November 1, 2012, on the MTA website and distributed to all major news outlets. Subway routes represented in brighter colors remained functional; the lighter colors represent parts of the network that were out of service. Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority (used with permission) Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 501 The MTA is the largest public transportation provider in the Western Hemisphere, with infrastructure valued at more than US$1 trillion dollars. The Authority serves a 13,000 square kilometer metropol- itan region with an average weekday ridership of 8.7 million (MTA, 2014). Prior to 2012, the MTA had begun preparing for extreme climate events – prompted by two intense precipitation events in 2004 and 2007. In response to the 2004 storm, which delivered 2 inches of rain per hour and resulted in 1,156 subway train cancellations, the MTA authorized an Inspector General investigation and formed an MTA Board Task Force (MTA, 2006; MTA, 2007; Kaufman, 2012). The 2007 storm, which delivered 3.5 inches of rain in one morning, prompted the MTA to form an official Storm Task Force and issue the August 8, 2007 Storm Report (MTA, 2007). Additionally, in the fall of 2007, the MTA convened the Blue Ribbon Commission on Sustainability with a dedicated Climate Adaptation Working Group tasked with developing near-term strategies as well as long-range climate adaptation recommendations (Jacob et al., 2008; MTA, 2009).Findings from these committees included inadequacies in stormwater drainage systems, shortcomings in internal organi- zational communication, and the need for increased capacity to provide public service alerts. The findings led to an analysis of flood-prone stations, upgrades to valves for pumping water and preventing sewage backflow, installation of Doppler radar access throughout the network, embankment stabilization, elevation of 30 subway station exits, retrofits of 1,500 ventilation grates, and the recalibration of the MTA’s hurricane plan. The experience and lessons from these prior climate events led the MTA to initiate its first-ever transit service suspension prior to Hurricane Irene in 2011 (Kaufman et al., 2012). In 2012, three days prior to Hurricane Sandy’s landfall, the MTA activated its hurricane plan. One day before the storm, the MTA began suspending service system-wide on subways, buses, and the commuter rail systems for the second time in its history. The Authority implemented hurricane and flood preparedness mea- sures across the network. These actions included the pre-deploy- ment of mobile pumping units, the covering of ventilation grates and subway entrances, the relocation of vehicles and rolling stock to higher ground, and the removal of signal and control systems from tunnels expected to be flooded. Removal of equipment pre- vented saltwater damage, allowed for a swifter resumption of subway service, and decreased the duration of bridge and tunnel closures. The adaptation response policy and procedures detailed in the hurricane plan outlined specific responsibilities for MTA offi- cials and strategies for deployment of personnel and equipment. The plan also included communication protocols between internal agencies and between MTA officials and local, state, and federal agencies, as well as with news and media agencies (Coyle, 2014; MTA, 2013). Adaptation policy measures and procedures reduced damage to the urban transit systems, enhanced passenger and personnel safety, and minimized the duration of service disruption, allowing the MTA to reinstate service shortly after the storm. By November 3, 2012, 80% of the 108-year-old subway system was operational (see Case Study 13.1 Figure 2). The rest of the MTA system was fully operational by November 16, 2012 (Kaufman et al., 2012). Despite having these adaptation protocols in place, major por- tions of the networks, including nine under-river subway tubes, two vehicular tunnels, and critical transit hubs such as South Ferry Station, were inundated with saltwater and suffered severe dam- age. The Montague Tube, connecting the Boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn, did not reopen until September 2014, and the pro- cess of restoring the network to its pre-Sandy condition will take years (MTA, n.d.). For additional information on the MTA’s recovery, see Zimmerman (2014). Furthermore, cost-benefit assessments of adaptation alterna- tives are best incorporating both impacts and consequences. The accounting costs of damage to transportation networks as well as long-term social, environmental, and economic impacts exacer- bated by sectoral interdependencies should also be factored into analyses (Koetse, 2009). Urban transport adaptation efforts in New York illustrate the value of multistakeholder engagement in addressing interdepen- dencies inherent in transport systems. New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority works across its transport departments and agencies that are responsible for planning, regulation, enforcement, operations, and maintenance to determine inter- dependencies of regional transport operations and investments. The adoption of a multistakeholder, multilevel engagement process helped strengthen coordination and dialogue between sectors and agencies – for example, between those tasked with environmental assessments and flood and climate forecasting (Jacob et al., 2011). The emphasis on engagement helped to formulate urban development and transit plans and policies, and review and screen investment incorporating climate risk assessments, monitoring climate indicators, evaluating program performance, and developing an effective urban transport adap- tation system. 13.4 Low-Carbon Transport Although adaptation can make transport systems resilient to climate change, low-carbon transport can mitigate climate impacts. In 2010, transport accounted for 22% of energy-re- lated CO2 emissions and 20% of global energy use. Urban transport accounts for approximately 40% of these totals (IEA, 2012). Even with advances in technology and fuel, energy consumption from urban transport is expected to dou- ble by 2050 (IEA, 2013). Globally, motor vehicle emissions could increase threefold between 2010 and 2050 (UN-Habitat, 2013). Developing countries will be the fastest-growing source of these emissions. Rising incomes and urbaniza- tion has already pushed up travel demand, motorization, and emissions in China and India (Pucher et al., 2007). In China specifically, transport is the fastest-growing emission source (Baeumler et al., 2012). The preceding estimates are based on top-down methods that multiply national fuel use by emission factors to reach emissions estimates. Increasingly, urban transport emissions are estimated from bottom-up models that consider urban transport activity lev- els and mode structures. Bottom-up modeling shows that Mexico ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 502 City has significant emission reduction potential from new tech- nologies and public transport (Chavez-Baeza and Sheinbaum- Pardo, 2014). Models in the four cities of Barcelona, Spain; Malmö, Sweden; Sofia, Bulgaria; and Freiburg, Germany, demon- strate reductions of up to 80% from 2010 to 2040 as well as cleaner air, reduced noise pollution, and other co-benefits (Creutzig et al., 2012). Meanwhile, models of CO2 emissions in Osaka highlight the interactions between built environments and lifecycle stages (Waygood et al., 2014). 13.4.1 Emissions Drivers Several interconnected drivers contribute to emission increases. Drivers can be classified as operating on the supply and demand sides. These categories parallel the top-down and bottom-up estimation techniques. The supply side concentrates on the fuel quality and emissions intensities. The demand side focuses on vehicle activity and modal structure (Schipper et al., 2000). Four drivers that work chiefly on the demand side are particularly relevant to urban transport and are thus empha- sized here. The first driver is urbanization. Approximately 54% of the global population lives in urban areas and will grow to 66% by 2050 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs [UN DESA], 2014). Globally, 2.5 billion peo- ple will be added to cities by 2050, with nearly 90% of that growth concentrated in developing areas of Asia and Africa (UN DESA, 2014). While Africa’s population is predomi- nantly rural, its urban population is greater than the United States’ population and rapidly growing. Asia is home to the fastest-growing cities. Asia’s urban population has grown sevenfold, from 232 million to 2.13 billion people between 1950 and 2015 (UN-Habitat/ESCAP, 2015). In Latin America, three-quarters of the population lives in cities (UN DESA, 2014). Urbanization characteristics – land use mix, popu- lation density, and income levels – and associated transpor- tation modal choices will determine urban transit emissions (see Figure 13.5) and its mitigation opportunities. Much of the urban growth will be in cities with populations below 1 million (UN DESA, 2014). This could cause a further spike in emis- sions as research shows that smaller cities tend to use energy less efficiently (Seto et al., 2014). The second core driver of emissions is motorization. Motorized modes accounted for about 47% of urban trips glob- ally in 2005; this figure could grow to 54% without significant policy changes (Pourbaix, 2012). Private vehicle ownership in China is projected to rise from 40 to 310 per 1,000 people between 2010 and 2035. Similar trends are anticipated for India. Other rapidly emerging economies are witnessing growth of 20% annually in vehicles (IEA, 2012). Figure 13.6 illustrates motorization in the developing world over the next three to four decades. The third emissions driver is infrastructure investment. China’s urban roads have doubled between 1990 and 2003, while Kenya invested more than US$530 million in 143 kilo- meters of urban road construction and repair between 2008 and 2012 (UN-Habitat, 2013). Increased connectivity will be essential for development, but short-sighted infrastructure planning can create path dependencies that lock in energy-in- tensive development patterns for decades (Sims et al., 2014). Path dependencies not only apply to roads and bridges but also to institutional and individual behaviors; to exemplify the connection to behavior, research illustrates that investments in infrastructure to ease traffic and mobility can boost vehicle kilo- meters traveled (VKT). For instance, studies show a 10–20% Figure 13.5 Actual and projected global CO2 emissions from the transport sector, 1980–2030. Source: Fulton and Cazzola, 2008; in Suzuki et al., 2013 2,000 United states European Union Japan Russian Federation China India Middle East Africa Latin America 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 C O 2 em is si on s, M T 600 400 200 0 1980 1990 2000 2006 2020 2030 Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 505 Capturing co-benefits can make low-carbon transport more affordable and sustainable. The highest value co-benefits tend to be those that improve public health from reduced air pol- lution (see Chapter 10, Urban Health). To illustrate, bringing emissions levels within World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in twenty-five European cities could add 6 months of life expectancy (for 30-year-olds) in half the cities and save €31 billion (Pascal et al., 2012). In Asia, such savings project to be even greater due to poorer air quality (Chen and Whalley, 2010). In Taipei, Taiwan, a 9–14% reduction in car- bon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM) from public rail could deliver welfare gains of US$264 million annually. Importantly, the air quality benefits often accrue to poor res- idents who are more exposed to pollution because they live closer to highways and traffic. Co-benefits therefore can also address inequities. Another co-benefit is reducing congestion and travel times. Time lost in traffic costs an estimated 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe’s cities and 2–5% in Asia’s cities (UN-Habitat, 2013). In Dakar, Senegal, and Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, the costs of traffic congestion amount to 5% of GDP (UN-Habitat, 2013). In American cities, congestion created 5.5 billion extra hours of travel, required the purchase of an extra 2.9 billion gallons of fuel, and cost drivers US$121 billion dollars in 2011 (Schrank et al., 2012). In Western Europe, reduced noise pollution could save 1 million lost life years from sleep deprivation, cognitive impairments in chil- dren, and other defects (WHO, 2011). Yet another co-bene- fit of some avoid-and-shift options is improved traffic safety (UN-Habitat, 2013). Figure 13.8b Global temperature projections and distribution of bus rapid transit systems. Source: Sustainable Development Solutions Center analysis with data from IPCC, 2014; UN-Habitat, 2013; brtdata.org, and Hidalgo, 2012 6 14 6 1 1 6 2 2 1 31 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 5 213 1 11 3 1 1 2 1 4 18 1 1 1 2 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 600 Kilometers or more 200 – 599 Kilometers 80 – 199 Kilometers 1 – 79 Kilometers 6 1 7 [ºC] hybrid electric or hydraulic hybrid drive trains (Chandler et al., 2006; AEA Consulting, 2011). Electric vehicles reduce emissions by converting fuel to energy more efficiently and cutting tailpipe emissions. Studies show electric motors convert 59–62% of electricity drawn from the grid into energy at the wheel, whereas gasoline engines convert 17–21% (U.S. Department of Energy [DOE], n.d.). A global launch of electric vehicles could cost US$500 billion but save US$2 trillion through 2025. The UN set a goal for electric vehicles to make up 30% of urban motorized travel by 2030 to capture these savings (UN, 2014). Improvement in battery performance and reductions in battery prices make this goal feasible (U.S. DOE, n.d.). The impacts of electric vehicles nevertheless require changes to the overall energy system, or emissions will shift from vehicles to power plants. Clean fuels, another “improve” option, reduce GHG emis- sions. Brazil’s flex-fuel and biodiesel programs are two nota- ble initiatives promoting these clean fuel alternatives (Ribeiro and de Abreu, 2008). However, clearing carbon-rich lands for biofuel production can create CO2 emissions (Fargione et al., 2008). Reductions in energy prices from biofuels can increase energy usage and emissions (Fargione et al., 2008). Additional research is needed on emissions across the lifecy- cle of biofuels. 13.4.3 Co-Benefits of Low-Carbon Transport Reducing transport emissions can yield additional bene- fits beyond mitigating GHGs or co-benefits (see Table 13.4). ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 506 Case Study 13.2 Bus Rapid Transit in Lagos and Johannesburg: Establishing Formal Public Transit in Sub-Saharan Africa Matthew Woundy Sustainable Development Solutions Center, Boston Keywords BRT, Africa, mobility, emissions reductions Population (Metropolitan Region) Lagos: 21 million (Lagos State, 2013) Johannesburg: 7.2 million (Statssa, 2015) Area (Metropolitan Region) Lagos: 3,569 km2 (Lagos State, 2013) Johannesburg: 6,009 km2 (Statssa, 2015) Income per capita Nigeria: US$2,450 South Africa: US$5,480 (World Bank, 2017) Climate zone Lagos: Aw – Tropical savannah Johannesburg: BSk – Arid, steppe, cold (Peel et al., 2007) Formal public transit remains virtually nonexistent in Sub-Saharan Africa (UN-Habitat, 2013), although this is beginning to change with recent and planned implementation of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) sys- tems in the region. The pioneers of this movement toward formal mass transit are the cities of Lagos and Johannesburg, the latter of which is credited with launching the first BRT system in the region only because the (slightly) older system is Lagos is described as BRT “lite.” This distinction exists because the Lagos system was designed to capture most of the desirable traits of BRT while requir- ing less capital investment, making the project feasible for the city. The result is a high-quality system at US$2.75 million per kilometer, or half the cost of the usual BRT system (UN-Habitat, 2013). This increase in affordability is balanced by slightly slower transit times and lower capacities due to the lack of separated busways and other capital-intensive infrastructure changes, but the net gains for passengers remain substantial. In both Lagos and Johannesburg, informal taxis and minibuses dominated the public transport sec- tor, usually exacting high fares and lacking in efficiency. BRT has improved economic, environmental, safety, and other outcomes for residents in both cities. In Lagos, the BRT “lite” corridor opened in 2008 with a planned capacity of 60,000 passengers per day, a number that had reached 220,000 per day in 2010 (UN-Habitat, 2013). The World Bank pro- vided technical advice and US$100 million in financing, with Lagos state providing US$35 million (World Bank, n.d.). To complete the financing and operation of the system a public–private partnership was established where the Lagos transit authority (LAMATA) pro- vided facilities and terminals while private operators bought and operated the buses (World Bank, n.d.) The result for passengers was a 30% decrease in average fares, a 40% decrease in travel time, and a 35% decrease in waiting times (UN-Habitat, 2013). The buses are responsible for 25% of all trips along the BRT corridor while representing just 4% of total vehicle traffic (World Bank, 2015b). As a result, CO2 emissions have been cut by 13% and overall GHG emissions by 20% according to LAMATA (World Bank, n.d.). The BRT corridor has also created direct employment oppor- tunities for 1,000 people and indirect employment for 500,000 (UN-Habitat, 2013). Launched in 2009, the Rea Vaya BRT in Johannesburg was the first full BRT system in Africa (Allen, 2011), and cost US$5.5 million per kilometer to construct (UN-Habitat, 2013). Rea Vaya was born of a transit plan by the city of Johannesburg with a goal of having 85% of residents within 1 kilometer of a BRT trunk corridor or a feeder route (City of Johannesburg, 2013). The awarding of the FIFA World Cup to South Africa in 2010 also provided motivation to get formal public transit systems up and running in host cities (Carrigan et al., 2013; UN-Habitat, 2013). Funding was achieved chiefly through fiscal trans- fers from national to city government in the form of a transport infra- structure grant. In 2011, the first phase of Rea Vaya was completed at a length of 122 kilometers and carried 434,000 passengers per day (UN-Habitat, 2013). Rea Vaya passengers reduced their travel times by 10–20% based on surveys, and a study by EMBARQ (Carrigan et al., 2013) shows that travel time savings and avoided road fatali- ties were the chief benefits of the BRT system, accounting for 30% and 28% of total benefits, respectively. Johannesburg launched the second phase of Rea Vaya (Phase 1b) in 2013, and it has registered both phases with the Voluntary Carbon Standard. The expected emis- sions reductions from the two phases are 400,000 metric tons of CO2 over a 10-year period (Swiss Association for Quality and Management Systems, 2011). Both cities are currently expanding their BRT systems, with Lagos planning on adding 13.5 kilometers to the existing corridor and Johannesburg constructing a third phase to service the north- ern parts of the city (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, 2013; Carrigan et al., 2013). Stakeholder engagement was key for both cities – in Johannesburg, the emphasis was on including existing taxi operators in the development and ownership of Rea Vaya to lower resistance and to lessen the impact on livelihoods of those in the transit sector (Allen, 2011). To make up lost revenues as taxis were taken off the road, taxi operators were offered owner- ship stakes in the Rea Vaya Company as compensation, and taxi drivers were retrained and absorbed into Rea Vaya as bus drivers (Allen, 2011). In Lagos, community engagement was a key factor in building demand for BRT because there was a history of poor transport system delivery in the city and an overall lack of experience with formal public transit (UN-Habitat, 2013). LAMATA also worked to build a partnership with the National Union of Road Transport Workers, forming a cooperative to manage the BRT and building knowledge on the benefits of formal mass transit (World Bank, n.d.). The success of Lagos and Johannesburg in providing clean, efficient, and affordable public transit while working with the com- munity and the dominant informal sector demonstrates a path for- ward to the rest of the continent to enhance mobility for urban residents while also improving the economic, environmental, and safety outcomes of transit. Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 507 Table 13.4 Potential co-benefits from the transport sector beyond GHG mitigation. Source: Wright, 2009 Economic co-benefits Environmental co-benefits Social co-benefits Congestion reduction Consumer spending savings Employment creation Small and medium sized enterprise development Traffic accident reduction Technology transfer Reduced dependence on imports/ energy security Economic productivity/efficiency improvements Reduction of air pollutants (particulate matter, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds) Noise reduction Solid waste reduction Water contaminant reduction Health improvements Crime reduction/security enhancement Gender equity promotion Universal access for physically disabled Convenience and comfort Community sociability Reduction in community severance 13.5 Policy Frameworks and Enabling Environments A well-designed low-carbon transport strategy will typ- ically involve combining the Avoid and Shift demand-side with Improve supply-side options. Combining demand- and supply-side solutions is important to ensure net benefits and avoid unintended increase in emissions from a single interven- tion. Studies show a 2% increase in driving can offset 10% fuel consumption reductions from efficiency improvements (Greene et al., 1999). Potential synergies between and within the avoid- shift-improve categories is another reason for combining options (Schipper et al., 2000). The greatest benefits come from syner- gies between reductions in unnecessary travel and travel pow- ered by advanced technologies and clean fuels. For example, this could involve equipping new buses with more efficient engines (Zusman et al., 2012). Combining options requires support from multiple govern- ment and nongovernmental actors at different decision-making levels. It also necessitates well-trained staff and institutions capable of aligning stakeholder interests. Studies on apply- ing multilevel, multistakeholder governance to transport sug- gest that significant improvements in institutional design are often needed to implement low-carbon strategies in the United Kingdom (Marsden and Rye, 2010) and Indonesia (Jaeger et al., 2015). In response to local conditions, mitigation policies and measures have varied across cities, and cities such as Delhi have shown that the actors and change agents that drive policy changes vary as well. In 1995, a World Bank study found that poor air quality posed health hazards for households, causing an estimated 1 death every 70 minutes in Delhi, and branded Delhi as one of the most polluted cities in the world (Brandon and Hommann, 1995). The report generated public outrage in the city, and the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE, 1998) started a campaign demanding clean air. The pollution emitted from poorly man- aged public transport was identified as one of the main causes of poor air quality. The campaign galvanized citizen support through involve- ment of professional associations, media, academies, and other stakeholders and involved bringing the message directly to the attention of the national political leadership. In response, the Supreme Court issued a judgment in 1998 requiring the gov- ernment of Delhi to stem air pollution by introducing com- pressed natural gas (CNG)-operated public transport and to augment the supply of mass transit within a prescribed time- frame of 3 years, as well as requiring adoption of stringent emission standards within 5 years. Additionally, to address resistance from automobile firms, the Supreme Court issued stringent directives including appointing a CNG czar to ensure compliance of new regulations; instituted large penalties for defaulters, including state and federal agencies; and increased funding of research and development. Both supply and demand for CNG and safety regulations were addressed through insti- tutional mechanisms. In about five years (1998–2002), all public transport in Delhi was converted to CNG-operated retrofitted buses. Furthermore, this effort triggered several projects to increase the supply of efficient and clean public transport systems like the Delhi metro, thus contributing to broader climate change mitigation efforts within the city. However, the key lesson from this case was that change agents are diverse – research- ers, civil society, and the supreme court – and require creative and persistent efforts as well as the willingness to learn by doing (Mehrotra et al., 2009; with data from Centre for Science and Environment and C40 Cities). Building off past efforts, for the first 15 days of January, in 2016, the Government of Delhi introduced restrictions on car users based on car license plates to curb air pollution. Cars with even-numbered ARC3.2 Climate Change and Cities 510 OPERATIONS Rolling stock and procurement requirements: CRL requires all con- tractors to meet stringent energy-efficient standards for its new rolling stock and applies sustainable standards throughout its entire supply chain. Bombardier’s winning £1 billion (US$1.3b) bid to supply and maintain CRL’s rolling stock promises to deliver lightweight trains of only 350 tons, thereby reducing the typical amount of energy needed to move and stop trains (Crossrail, 2014). Station design: All stations will incorporate energy-efficient mate- rials and products from LED lighting and presence detectors to regenerative braking on trains whereby energy used to slow and stop the train is captured and converted or stored for later use. The stations are also designed to reduce energy use. Utilizing a humpback design, trains arrive to the station on a slight incline and depart on a slight decline, thus capitalizing on the force of gravity (Smith, 2015). Large-scale urban transport projects can contribute to climate change through their energy consumption during construction and operations. Nevertheless, sustainable outcomes are possible, partic- ularly when calculating offsets gained through reduced energy use, energy efficiency, and mode shifts away from other higher GHG- emitting forms of transport that mass transit provides. As this case shows, it is even more likely that mega urban transit projects have the potential to provide net environmental benefits when applying and adhering to a holistic focus maintained throughout the life of the project. By combining stringent procurement requirements, sustain- able supply-chain management, diverting waste from landfills, and using energy-efficient products and materials, CRL is working to mit- igate its impact on climate. key enabling reforms: managing land use, congestion pricing, taxes and auctions, and land value capture. These reforms are an illustrative example, not an exhaustive list, of the kinds of changes cities can introduce to expand the fiscal space for the transport sector. 13.5.1 Managing Land Use Several enabling reforms can promote mixed land-use and transit-oriented development (TOD). In the United States, state governments provide tax credits to promote a form of mixed- land-use planning known as “smart growth” (Bolen et al., 2002) In Ahmadabad, India, policy-makers impose surcharges on land- owners for the right to increase densities (measured in floor area ratios [FAR]) and reinvest revenues in affordable housing near the BRT (UN-Habitat, 2013). In Curitiba, Brazil, officials offer developers the ability to increase density in exchange for open spaces to promote mixed-use development (Seto et al., 2014). Many cities nonetheless adopt poorly designed zoning and codes and fail to coordinate public transport and land-use rules. In con- sequence, they underuse urban space, face overcrowding, and confront extraordinarily high land prices in city centers (Bertaud, 2004, 2015). 13.5.2 Congestion Pricing Several cities – Singapore, Stockholm, and London – have adopted congestion pricing to encourage environmentally friendly travel, mode shifts, and compact development (Seik, 1998; Givoni, 2012; Börjesson, 2012). Discontent from driv- ers, impacts on the poor, infringements on privacy from travel tracking, and a shortage of alternative modes have nonetheless often led to political backlash for congestion pricing. Resistance to the congestion pricing initiative in New York is a high-profile example of such contestation (Schaller, 2010). To avoid simi- lar resistance, many cities have adopted less contentious park- ing restraints and moderate pricing policies. These alternatives to congestion pricing programs may be less effective as drivers carpool or change parking rather than forgo driving altogether (Marsden, 2006). In other cases, web-based real-time informa- tion on bus routes has helped efficient trip planning, thereby supplementing congestion pricing (MTA, 2014; Chicago Transit Authority [CTA], n.d.). 13.5.3 Taxes and Auctions Taxing the carbon content of fuel can be more efficient than directly charging for vehicle use. A fuel tax can affect fuel and vehicle choice. Norway not only imposes fuel taxes but also an annual tax on vehicle ownership and registration (Naess and Smith, 2009). Other parts of the world employ different methods to capture externalities. Singapore auctions a rationed number of “Certificates of Entitlement” to own a vehicle (Seik, 1998). Cities such as Athens, Seoul, San Paulo, Lagos, and Mexico City limit the use of vehicles on days of the week based on license plate numbers (Mehrotra et al., 2011; World Bank, 2009). Well-designed vehicle restraint schemes discouraged peak driving by 14% in São Paulo (Viegas, 2001). Distance- based charging and pay-as-you-drive (PAYD, an insurance premium per mile based on driving record) have been recom- mended to affect driving behavior, consolidate loading, and improve efficiencies for the freight industry (Litman, 2012). However, a related challenge is posed by the extraordinarily high global subsidy on carbon-based fuels. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates post-tax energy subsidies to be US$5.3 trillion dollars or 6.5% of global GDP in 2015 (Coady et al., 2015). 13.5.4 Land Value Capture Value capture can supplement traditional revenue for transit infrastructure in dense and congested cities while promoting mixed-use development and facilitating development of afford- able housing (Murakami, 2012; Cervero, 2009; Ardila-Gomez et al., 2016). Value capture can be achieved through a wide variety of techniques, including land sale or lease, joint development Chapter 13 Urban Transportation 511 Figure 13.9 Financing urban transport through land readjustment. Source: Suzuki et al., 2015 a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are intended to inspire and guide the global development com- munity. SDG 11, “make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable,” includes a specific target on transportation. The target states that “by 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible, and sustainable transport systems for all, improv- ing road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons. Additionally, transport-related targets are included in eight of the 17 SDGs. This suggests that it is likely to receive even more attention as an enabler of sustainable low-carbon development between 2015 and 2030 (UN-Habitat, UNEP, SLoCaT, 2015). This chapter’s authors, as members of organizations like the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), an external advisory group appointed by the UN Secretary General, have continued to advocate for a Post-2015 urban development agenda that offers cities as a space for transfor- mative solutions, including in the New Urban Agenda, as part of the UN General Assembly-mandated Habitat III process – a multiyear engagement that led up to the United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development, which took place in Quito, Ecuador in October 2016 (Mehrotra, 2012b; Revi et al., 2013). In addition, a global climate change agreement for the post- 2020 period was adopted in December 2015 in Paris. The Partnership on Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport (SLoCaT) between the government and the private sector, sale of air rights, land readjustment (see Figure 13.9), or urban redevelopment schemes (see Chapter 5, Urban Planning and Design). Tokyo has enjoyed considerable success with its land value capture system. Tokyo finances a third of land redevelopment for new transit, grants land readjustment ability under the Housing Highway Integration Law, and allows for land owners and developers to capture value through the Urban Redevelopment Law (Suzuki et al., 2015) (see Figure 13.10). Cities such as Los Angeles have also employed land value capture to derive funds from neighbor- ing commercial business owners, funding 10% of its Red Line metro-rail. 13.6 Transport Solutions: Leveraging Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Agreement, and the New Urban Agenda The discussion on sustainable transport has evolved from defining and discussing the need for sustainable transport to determining the best strategies to implement sustainable trans- port. With this evolution, the dialogue is less one that is specific to the transport community and more one that needs to be addressed by the wider development community, particularly cities. The year 2015 marked a critical juncture for sustainable transport. The UN General Assembly finalized and approved M aj or in he re nt c on di tio ns E co no m y, d em og ra ph ic tr en ds , u rb an iz at io n st ag e/ pa tte rn , t ra ns po rt at io n, a nd r ea l e st at e m ar ke ts P ha se s P la nn in g & d es ig n La nd c oo rd in at io n D ev el op m en t O pe ra tio n & m ai nt en an ce R eg en er at io n Im pa ct Im pa ct V al ue ad di tio n G re en fie ld s B ui lt- up di st ric ts La nd a ss em bl ag e N ew R ed ev el op Jo in t d ev el op m en t A ss et m an ag em en t S tr at eg ic r ev ita liz at io n N ew li ne P la n tr an si t & TO D Id en tif y & d es ig n de ve lo pa bl e si te s C re at e th e rig ht s of w ay w ith d ev el op m en t s ite s In ve st in tr an si t + p ro pe rt ie s + TO D in fr as tr uc tu re O pe ra te & m ai nt ai n tr an si t+ pr op er tie s+ TO D in fr as tr uc tu re R ei nv es t i n tr an si t + p ro pe rt ie s + TO D in fr as tr uc tu re G ov . en tit ie s Tr an si t ag en cy D ev el op er s Lo ca l c om m un iti es La nd ow ne rs / te na nt s Organize Public consultations D ev el op er s Lo ca l c om m un iti es La nd ow ne rs / te na nt s Tr an si t ag en cy G ov . en tit ie s Transfer Tr an sf er Public relations Land assemblage D ev el op er s Lo ca l c om m un iti es La nd ow ne rs / te na nt s Tr an si t ag en cy C os t- pr of it/ ris k sh ar in g PPP contract Public relations D ev el op er s D ev el op er s La nd ow ne rs / te na nt s B us in es s re ve nu e Lo ca l c om m un iti es Lo ca l c om m un iti es La nd ow ne rs / te na nt s Tr an si t ag en cy Tr an si t ag en cy G ov . en tit ie s G ov . en tit ie s C os t- pr of it/ ris k sh ar in g C os t- pr of it/ ris k sh ar in g PPP contract Higher incentives Property tax Transit fare Public consultations Property right transfers Mgt. fee/ rent G ov . en tit ie s K ey m et ho ds & to ol s N ot e: F A R = flo or a re a ra tio ; O & M = op er at io n an d m ai nt en an ce ; T O D = tr an si t- or ie nt ed d ev el op m en t. • M as te r pl an ( vi si on ) • F in an ci ng & c ap ita l in ve st m en t p la n • Z on in g (f le xi bl e la nd u se c od e & F A R ) • S ite la yo ut p la n • C ap ac ity d ev el op m en t o f tr an si t a ge nc y in u rb an pl an ni ng & r ea l e st at e bu si ne ss • P ub lic la nd le as in g/ au ct io n w ith p ub lic r eq ui re m en ts (s oc ia l h ou si ng , o pe n sp ac e) • La nd r ea dj us tm en t • U rb an r ed ev el op m en t sc he m e • P ub lic –p riv at e pa rt ne rs hi ps ( su ch a s jo in t d ev el op m en t c on tr ac t) • La nd a uc tio n • P ro pe rt y le as e co nt ra ct • P ub lic –p riv at e pa rt ne rs hi ps ( su ch a s O & M c on ce ss io n) • P ro pe rt y ta x • T ra ns it se rv ic e + e xt en si ve bu si ne ss es ( su ch a s pr op er ty m an ag em en t, re ta il, to ur is m , a nd le is ur e) • D es ig na tio n of r eg en er at io n d is tr ic ts • U rb an r ed ev el op m en t s ch em e • R e- zo ni ng • E xp ed ite a pp ro va l • A ir rig ht s bo nu s w ith p ub lic r eq ui re m en ts ( so ci al h ou si ng a nd o pe n sp ac e) • Tr an sf er ab le d ev el op m en t rig ht s U se r, ac ce ss ib ili ty , a n d a g g lo m er at io n b en ef it s • P ub lic la nd • T ra in d ep ot • La rg e pa rc el • F ew o w ne rs • E tc . 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