Demography/Migration (Topic 11), Apuntes de Administración de Empresas

¡Descarga Demography/Migration (Topic 11) y más Apuntes en PDF de Administración de Empresas solo en Docsity! Topic 11. Demographic trends and migration flows Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 1 Outline: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS • Evolution of total population (11.1) • Demographic equilibria and demographic transitions (11.2) • Demographic structure and future trends (11.3) MIGRATION FLOWS • Contrast of theoretical model (11.4). • Migration flows (11.5) Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.1. Evolution of total population (I) 2 Evolution of total population, 1800-1991 (Millions): 10,5 18,6 20,0 20,4 23,7 26,0 28,1 30,6 34,0 37,7 39,4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1797 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1981 1991 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.1. Evolution of total population (IV) 5 Evolution of foreign population in Spain, 1998-2012 (Millions): 0,6 0,7 0,9 1,4 2,0 2,7 3,0 3,7 4,1 4,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,7 5,3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.2. Demographic equilibria and demographic transitions (I) 6 Key concepts: 1. Old demographic equilibrium 2. Demographic transition 3. Modern demographic equilibrium 4. Second demographic transition Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 Catalan demographic pyramid in 2009 7 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (II) 10 Expected evolution of crucial indicators (I, continued):  The fall in the birth rates since the mid 1970s anticipates a fall in the growth rate of population at some time. Birth rate in Spain (born per 1,000 inhabitants): 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (III) 11 Expected evolution of crucial indicators (II): Ageing population because:  Life expectancy at birth grows by 8 years (males and females)  Life expectancy at 65 grows by 7 years (males and females). Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (IV) 12 Expected evolution of crucial indicators (III): Natural population growth (i.e., thus that are born in the country; or excluding migration):  The National Statistical Institute (INE) expects 34% more deaths in next 4 decades (2012-2052) than in the past 4 decades, because of the ageing population: overall 17.9 millions.  From next decade, natural population growth will be negative. Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (VII) 15 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (VIII) 16 MAIN CONSEQUENCE (of expected evolution of crucial indicators): Massive increase in old dependency ratio:  The dependency ratio measures the proportion of potentially inactive persons  The old dependency ratio (for people above 64) is the proportion of this group expressed as a percent over working-age population (16-64 years old). Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.3. Demographic structure and future trends (IX) 17 Wider context: evolution of Spanish old-age dependency ratio: Spanish baby boom in broad sense: end 1950’s – mid 1970s. Very dense generation that will reach 65 during the 2020’s. 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 26 19 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.5. Migration flows (I) 20 5 million arrivals in a short-period of time (2000-2009) over a 40 million population: 39,2 39,5 39,6 39,7 39,9 40,1 40,2 40,4 40,6 40,7 40,9 41,1 41,3 41,4 41,5 0,6 0,7 0,9 1,4 2,0 2,7 3,0 3,7 4,1 4,5 5,3 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,7 35,0 37,0 39,0 41,0 43,0 45,0 47,0 49,0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nationals Foreigners Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.5. Migration flows (II) 21 Percentage of foreigners in Spain: Since the end of the 1990s, more than 5M. immigrants have come to Spain: equivalent to 10 percentage points of total Spanish population within a decade; … sudden and intensive demographic shock. 1,6 1,9 2,3 3,3 4,7 6,2 7,0 8,5 9,3 10,0 12,1 12,2 12,2 12,1 11,4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.5. Migration flows (III) 22 Where have immigrants found jobs? Mainly in low value added sectors:  Building construction.  Services (relevant shares in households, hotels & restaurants, and retail sectors). Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.5. Migration flows (VI) 25 Consequences of massive immigration flows (I): From an economic point of view, these massive arrivals have caused: A huge increase in available manpower: this alleviated wage inflationary tensions derived from the quick increase in labour demand in a context of a very dynamic economic expansion (up to 2007). A sustained increase in private consumption (leading, with investment, the second period of the long economic expansion that started in 1995). An extension and an increase in the intensity of the housing boom. A transitory relieve in the social security accounts by postponing, by a full decade, the problems related with Spanish ageing population. Hector Sala, Spanish Economy, 2012-2013, Topic 11 11.5. Migration flows (VII) 26 Consequences of massive immigration flows (I): Also important, but beyond the scope of our analysis, are other important issues related to massive immigration:  Regularisation issues (rights and obligations). Absorption capacity in times of “austerity”: we should avoid social polarisation! Absorption capacity in terms of the educational system. Absorption capacity in terms of the healthcare system. Absorption capacity in, broadly speaking, social terms.