Population Dynamics & Migration in Spain: Analyzing Demographic Transition & Empty Spain, Apuntes de Geografía

¡Descarga Population Dynamics & Migration in Spain: Analyzing Demographic Transition & Empty Spain y más Apuntes en PDF de Geografía solo en Docsity! II. Human Geography of Spain 7. SPANISH POPULATION Glossary Baby boom: es una expresión utilizada no solo en inglés, sino en otros idiomas, incluido el castellano. Se trata de un periodo de muy alta natalidad. En España ocurrió entre 1969-73, dando lugar a la cohorte demográfica más amplia de toda la historia de España. Los nacidos en ella son los baby- boomers o, simplemente, boomers. Una cohorte demográfica son todas las personas nacidas en el mismo lapso de tiempo, sea un año, un quinquenio, etc. Childbearing age: edad de procrear. Commuting (movements): movimientos pendulares de población. Son los que realizan cotidianamente las personas que residen en la periferia de las grandes áreas urbanas/metropolitanas, pero trabajan/estudian en la ciudad central. Developmentalism: desarrollismo. Es el periodo 1959-73 de fuerte crecimiento económico español, pero que obvió impactos sociales o ambientales, como la contaminación (Huelva) o la despoblación de la mayor parte de las provincias del interior del país. Lapland: Laponia. Literacy rate: tasa de alfabetización, o porcentaje de la población que sabe leer y escribir. Masculinity or feminity rate: tasa de masculinidad o de feminidad de una población, es la proporción de hombres o de mujeres sobre el total de la población. Municipal register or Roll: padrón. Natural population growth: crecimiento natural de la población, resultado de la diferencia entre nacimientos y defunciones de un año concreto. Nomenclature: nomenclátor. Son los datos demográficos del INE, pero, en lugar de por términos municipales, por lugares habitados (muchos municipios incluyen más de uno dentro de sus límites), aunque lo sean por pocas personas. Phylloxera: it is a vine pest of North American origin (which is why it spread so much, since European vines had no genetic defense against it), which spread through Spain and France between 1863 (1878 in Spain) and 1906. The crisis it produced led to a notable rural exodus from the wine- growing areas to the cities. Remittances: remesas. Son las cantidades de dinero que los emigrantes remiten a sus familias en sus países de origen. Rural exodus: éxodo rural, o migración del campo a las ciudades. Social return of basic public services: retorno social de servicios públicos básicos. Se trata de los beneficios sociales, en cantidad de atención dispensada, generados por la inversion gubernamental en servicios públicos. 1. Information sources about Spanish population Censuses, municipal register, and civil register are the most important sources for a discussion on the population fields. CENSUSES. The censuses are the population recount of the whole country, with disaggregated data by gender/sex, age, civil status, place of birth, nationality, language, level of education, economic data, fertility, and housing. The first Spanish census was in 1857 (Gozálvez & Martín-Serrano, 2016). It was made every 10 years, in those ending in 1, but the last one was in 2001, because in 2011 it was only a survey, or register-based census, due to financial constraints of the Spanish budget. It was considered by some authors that this will be the future for Spanish censuses (Treviño & Domingo, 2020, 108). MUNICIPAL REGISTER or ROLL. It is made by every local council, and nowadays it is automatically updated. It has less data than census. In Spain, the municipal rolls use to be a little oversized, due to weaknesses as duplication of records, and the fact that the local councils are interested in having more population too, to receive more public budget. CIVIL REGISTER It is a universal registration of only births, marriages, and deaths. The INE (www.ine.es/en/welcome.shtml) offers comprehensive information about census and municipal registers, by provinces, and about demographic phenomena –marriages, birth, death, life expectancy (at birth and at 65), migration, acquisition of Spanish citizenship, fertility, voluntary interruption of pregnancy, foreigners, visas, or residence permits, amongst others too. It also includes the Nomenclature, which registers population by places or settlements, even very small. Many of the INE information can be represented with diagrams (as pyramids of population) and maps. Since 2019, the Spanish Statistical Office has begun to use mobile phones data, grouped in cells with 5,000 people each (so, the city of Madrid has 128 cells), to follow the mobility of the Spanish population. These new technologies are replacing the traditional survey about residence/work mobility included in the census, locating cell phones from 0:00-6:00 to determine residency, and 9:00-18:00 for mobility. Other filters have been designed to control the people who works nights. The resulting information can be used to make decisions about public services and transport infrastructures. Seasonal movements are controlled in specific days as Christmas, or August 15th. This is the future for population statistics, and it can be another cause to explain the cited reduction of information in the censuses. 2. Changes and distribution There are not reliable data about population in the Iberian Peninsula until the Roman Empire age. During the period of the Pax Romana (Roman Peace), it increased from 4 to 5 million (200 aC) (diagram 1). The downfall of the Roman Empire reduced the population in the Early Middle Age (3 million by 700) (until the end of the 19th century, wars, epidemics, and bad harvests explained the data). Since this point, the population grew again (6 million by 1300) until the Black Death (1348). So, the population dropped to 4 million by 1400. Later a new peak by 1600 (8 million), the population dropped again by the 17th century, a period of famines, plagues, and wars (7 million by 1650). This situation lasted until the end of the War of Spanish Succession (1713), since when the Spanish people has had a continuing increase, especially during the Second Industrial Revolution, and the 1960s baby boom. Finally, there were some consecutive years of dropping (2013-17), partly due to the continued rise of the number of immigrants leaving the country (1.1 million fewer people by 2017 than by 2012). This Empty Spain includes mainly the Central Plateau, the Valley of Ebro, the Iberian System (especially, the county or shire of El Maestrazgo, between Teruel and Castellon), and the eastern provinces of Galicia (Lugo and Orense). It also affects southern Asturias, inland Murcia and Almeria, Sierra Morena (the Dark Range, north of Andalusia), and Cazorla Range. Lugo, Orense, Leon, Palencia, Burgos, Zamora, Salamanca, Avila, Segovia, Soria, Guadalajara, Cuenca, Huesca, and Teruel are the most affected provinces by population emptying. If their capital towns are excluded -especially Saragossa, and Valladolid, the only two great cities of the Empty Spain-, they are a virtually abandoned or deserted territory, particularly at the European level. Madrid is obviously the other exception, but depopulation drops strongly as soon as out of its metropolitan area, until 12 inhabitants/km2 at only 60 km from its urban centre. At a provincial level, Teruel is one of the most extreme cases, with 9 inhabitants/km2, less than 8 in the mountainous counties of the Iberian Range, which is under Finland, and more likely arctic regions as Lapland or northern Sweden. Aragon is a perfect proxy of the emptying in Central Spain: 1.3 million inhabitants, but 0.7 living only in the city of Saragossa, and a territory larger than Netherlands, where 17 million people live. Ageing is another characteristic of Empty Spain, unavoidably resulted from the cycle migration- depopulation. It is common in these territories that population under 50 old is very low. There are also many villages with less than 100 inhabitants in Empty Spain. Aragon and Castile-Leon has 2/3 of villages under 500. These small municipalities continue strongly decreasing population (diagram 4). Diagram 4. Depopulation in Spain by size of municipalities Although the initial wave of rural exodus was even by the end of the 19th century, due to the phylloxera, the beginning of the process was in the intense countryside-city migration since the 1950s (intercensal 1951-61), which del Molino (2016, 53) called The Big Shock. For some authors, agricultural mechanization, which reduced the labour force demand, was its cause. However, others as Fourneau (1983) showed that migration was before mechanization, at least in Andalusia. In fact, mechanization was produced by migration, because the labour force shortage increased the rural salaries, and made machinery profitable, while it was not so before, in the scheme of latifundia and hunger wages. According to Fourneau, the offer of better wages, working conditions1, and living standards in the expanding industrial centres in Spain and Europe made that an important contingent of rural workers took the way of migration. So, migration in the Province of Huelva began in 1965-66 (Fourneau, 1983, 99). It must be noted that there were much more landless peasants in Spain than in the rest of Western Europe, with very worst living conditions, of real extreme poverty and hunger. This point of view is reinforced because depopulation was in the northern half of Spain too, and this is a territory different of south, with many small rural landowners, instead of large latifundia and landless peasants. So, the impact of mechanization would not have been so deep in northern Spain. Finally, it is necessary to consider economic factors, as the low agrological quality of most of the countryside in the Central Plateau and the Valley of Ebro. Most of the inland Province of Huelva (Sierra de Aracena in the north, and Andevalo in the central west-east fringe) is affected by this problem. So, the Sierra de Huelva has gone from 76,149 inhabitants in 1930 to 37,634 currently, and Andevalo from 60,740 in 1960 to 37,800, with both counties continuing now to lose population except in a few municipalities. As a result, their densities are low, with 7.8 inhab/km2 in the Sierra, and 9,4 inhab/km2 in the Andevalo. This strong migration reduced the non-agricultural economic activity, as trade and services, and the creation of new enterprises. All this feedback the process. Even seniors migrated, due to the fall in provision of services, especially care. Besides the impact on population, the significant reduction of rural activity was the most important economic-territorial consequence, including the loss of many settlements as farms or small villages (Spain has the lowest density of settlements in Europe: Gutiérrez et al., 2020). This is compounded by, in many parts of Spain, many farmers, excepting large landowners and holders of very intensive businesses, have become employees of large agricultural companies, which orient production towards long-distance markets, instead local, which have often been reduced to fairs/holidays. This is different that commonly in the rest of Europe, where local farmers sell their productions (homemade and industrial cheeses, tinned food, etc) in small markets. It is expected that the demographic situation of Empty Spain will be even worsening, due to the shortage of inhabitants of childbearing age, and kids. Zamora, Cuenca, and Avila are the provinces with more population loss between 2020-30, around 15 % less. The impact of depopulation on Drained Spain is very strong, with economic stagnation, and difficult social return of basic public services (education, healthy, public transport). From a whole geographical point of view, the rural exodus produced too the farms going out, and the consequent deterioration of cultural landscapes. The generation of local employment with rural tourism and agro-based industries seems to be the best actions to tie people to these areas. 1 The high proportion of temporary employment was another of the problems of the Andalusian rural workers. Fourneau (1983) provided the fact that, in 1955, Huelva countryside had 9,173 permanent workers, and 24,820 temporaries, equivalent to 73 % of total rural labour force. 3. Natural dynamics of Spanish population The natural dynamics of population are birth and death, whose difference is the natural population growth. The characteristics of both birth and death determine the called demographic regime. All the countries in the world have moved or are moving from the old to new demographic regime (diagram 5). The passing phase from one to the other is called (first) demographic transition, where some of the developing countries still are. It started in a different point in history of every country. Sweden was the first, during the 19th century (diagram 6). This first demographic transition has been faster as later. Diagram 5. General pattern of the first demographic transition READING: the old demographic regime (stage 1) is characterized by high birth and death rates, and, consequently, by a stagnant population. During the first demographic transition (stages 2 and 3), the death rate is lowered, and birth rate follows it later, producing a period of very rapid growing population. Finally, in the new demographic regime (stage 4), the birth rate drops to near death rate, stabilizing population. Diagram 6. The (first) demographic transition is faster as later: comparison between the cases of Sweden (blue) and Mexico (orange and yellow) This situation of fall of birth rate under the replacement level, and natural decrease (fewer births than deaths), is called second demographic transition (diagram 14) by some demographers. The causes of this collapse are the cyclical economic recessions (which delay the marriage age), the hard compatibilization between job and maternity, a less influence of the Catholic Church (dissemination of contraceptive methods, decriminalization of abortion), the advance of the standard of living (loss of economic function of children), and the increase in the economic costs of children raising. The low overall death rate –including the low infant death rate too- is the other main characteristic of the new demographic regime. It was 9.0 ‰ in 2017 (8.4 ‰ in 2013). The consequence is that the generations that reach very advanced ages are growing larger each time, and those people that achieve the reproduction age are dropping. Diagrams 10. Balance of permanent migration at Europe (1959-2000) (above left), 11 Drop of number of births in Spain (1975-2012) (below left), & 12. Fertility rate: average number of children per woman (1970-2021) (right) Diagram 13. Domestic and foreign origin of children in Spain (1975-2006) READING: note that most of the small birth recovery in Spain since 1996, after a severe drop, was caused by immigrants. So, within the new demographic regime, the natural population growth is low. Due to the economic crisis, it is negative in Spain since 2015 (-0.04 ‰ in 2017), which was the first year with more deaths than births since the post-civil war (19,268 more deaths than births). It is estimated that, by 2063, there will be the peak of 330,423 more deaths than births. Diagram 14. Prevision of evolution of births and deaths in Spain, until 2063 Map 15. Birth rate by provinces Some significant regional differences exist in Spain, caused by the age structure of the respective populations. The higher growth –due to the stronger birth and lower death rates- is characteristic of regions with younger population. This can be either by the own higher birth rate (Andalusia or Murcia) or the strong recent immigration (Madrid, Catalonia, Valencia, and western Andalusia and Almeria-Murcia) (diagram 15). On the other hand, the lower birth rates and higher death rates are characteristic of regions with older populations, due to rural emigration (the empty Spain of the Valley of Douro, Iberian Range, and inland Galicia) or industrial-mining crisis (Asturias). As a result, the vital growth rate (birth less death, without migratory balance) reinforces the general pattern of population distribution, concentrated in Madrid and a large part of the periphery, and with regions in severe problems of ageing and depopulation, as Asturias, Castile- Leon, Galicia, Cantabria, Aragon (excluding the city of Saragossa), and Estramadura, the Empty Spain. Anyway, it must be noted that, actually, population in Spain is naturally growing only 9 provinces of the Peninsula (Madrid-Guadalajara, Gerona, Almeria-Murcia, and Huelva-Sevilla- Cadiz-Malaga), and in the islands. Map 16. Death rate by provinces Map 17. Vital growth rates in Spain, by provinces learning” 11.6-7.7 %. Besides, 70 % of migrants in 2012 said that the economic crisis was very important for their decision. Diagram 18. Unemployed university graduates and foreign emigration in Spain (2001-13) The immigration is now a common process across Europe. There are 21.8 million immigrants in the EU (4.9 % of total population, but 7.2 % of active population, because most of them are workers), 2/3 from out EU, and 1/3 EU citizens residents in other member States. In this final third, almost half of them are from the last member States, where a significant share of their active population (6.1 % as a whole) has shifted to Western EU. 80 % of these immigrants are living among Germany, Spain, Great Britain, France, and Italy. The crisis produced the stagnation of the immigration in the EU, descending mainly in the States more impacted by it, as Ireland, Hungary, Spain, Great Britain, and the Netherlands. But the Syria’s War produced 4.9 million refugees, part of them going to Europe. Spain has many foreigners too: 5.0 million, 1.8 from the European Union (2.1 from the whole Europe), 1.1 African, and 1.3 American (SSN/INE). They are 12 % of the national active population (21 % in rural activities, 16 % in building, and 9 % in industry). Moroccans (813,587) and Romanians (671,985) are the biggest foreign communities in Spain (almost 3 out of 10). Catalonia, Madrid, Andalusia, Valencia, Balearic Islands, Murcia, and Saragossa are their major destinations (map 19). The economic crisis produced the departure of many immigrants from Spain. So, although Spain was, in 2009, the State of the EU which received more immigrants (48,000), It was the State which more lost too (90,000). This process affected mainly to the foreigners from outside the EU, which dropped 377,000 in 2014, while the residents from EU countries increased by 82,000. Map 19. Immigrant population in Spain READING: Immigrants’ distribution is very similar to the general scheme of the Spanish population: metropolitan area of Madrid+coastal periphery, plus the isolated nucleus of the industrial city of Saragossa. The causes are the same too, because they come where the employment offer is higher: the large urban areas of Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia; the touristic (Malaga, Alicante, Balearic Islands) and intensive farming provinces (Almeria, Murcia) in the Mediterranean coast; and, as told, the industrial Saragossa. On the other side, the number of immigrants is very low in the Empty Spain, where the employment offer is very limited. Diagram 20. Recent evolution of migration in Spain (2008-19) READING: The impact of economic crisis is clearly visible, reducing immigration and increasing emigration. The causes of the high immigration in Spain are: • For the North European retired people2, the pleasant climate in the Mediterranean coast, the cost of living, and the informal Spanish lifestyle (Rodríguez, Fernández Mayoralas, & Rojo, 2004). • In the issuing States: the strong population growth, unemployment, and political repression. Most of the immigrants from them are young people who occupies low skilled jobs. • The extending basic care benefits and education to undocumented migrants. About the consequences: ▪ The compensation of the Spanish low birth rate -because more than half of immigrants are under the age of 40 (diagram 21), so, in their fully childbearing age-, which could be important to the future of the public pensions system3. Diagram 21. Foreign population in Spain pyramid READING: immigrants mitigate ageing because most of them are between 20-44. Besides, this effect is cumulative, as they are in childbearing age, and their behavior includes higher birth rate. So, their demographic contribution is going to have effects in the next generation. Observe that, between 25-49 there are more men than women, because, with exceptions such as the workers in the Province of Huelva intensive farming, men migrate more than women. 2 About retirees’ migration to southern Europe, vid. Rodríguez, Fernández Mayoralas, & Rojo (1998), and Warnes et al. (2004). 3 Authors such Serrano, Eguía & Ferreiro (2011) feel that immigration is no longer sufficient to offset its future imbalance. Diagram 24-25. Causes of ageing: drop of birth rate, births amount (24), and fertility rate and increase in age at maternity (25) (1970-2002) READING: the birth rate is the number of children born per year (usually, for every 10,000 inhabitants), while the fertility rate is the number of children per woman along all her childbearing age. Both has been dropping in Spain since mid-1970s. Fertility decline and, therefore, in birth rate is the most important cause of ageing, because it reduces the denominator of the proportion of, both, the rate and, especially, the index of ageing. The increase in the age of maternity is one of the factors of these reductions, which in Spain is very influenced by the young unemployment, low salaries, and delay of branch off from their families. So, Spanish women have their first child (average age of first maternity) at around age 31.8. Fertility rate in Spain keeps in 1.3. 2) On care system, which must increase in scale, and invest more resources to attention to senior diseases. 3) On some specific services, as social, more care to elderly living alone, day-care centres, rest homes, etc. 4) On education system, which will have fewer children and young students, and should devote growing attention to adult and senior education. 5) On urban design, more addressed to seniors (pedestrian use, green areas, etc) in the future. Births amount Birth rate Fertility rate Average age at maternity Diagram 26. Age structure of Spanish population (1900-2050) READING: the diagram shows the deep change of the structure of Spanish population, from a young to aged country. Young population passed from 33.5 % in 1900 to current 15.1 %, and it will be around 13.0 % in 2050. On the contrary, seniors passed from 5.2 % in 1900 to 20.1 %, and they are expected to be more than 31.0 % in 2050. On its part, adult people have remained between 60.4 % and 67.2 % since 1900. Diagram 27. Spanish population pyramids in 2013 and 2050 READING: the comparison represents the evolution to an aged country. Baby boom generation is clearly located in both pyramids, and the generations of its children and, in 2050, grandsons, progressively smaller. 6) The development of productive sectors linked with senior’s consumption. 7) In the countryside, farms out of business. 8) Ageing is producing migratory flows, with increasing intensity too, in North-South direction, both in Europe and United States-Canada. Climate, healthy and quiet lifestyle, low cost of living, presence of compatriots, and generosity and high level of healthcare, are the causes of these flows in Spain. The main consequence is the pressure on the healthcare system and municipal services. Retired migration from north to Mediterranean Europe (Algarve in Portugal, Spain, Greece, etc) is very important, and a similar case to Florida and California States, in the USA, and Mexico (for Canadian and US migrants). 25.5 % of the foreign residents in Spain older than 65 years have came from Great Britain, and 17.7 % from Germany. 20 % of them are octogenarian. Retirement in tourism-related areas is higher in the provinces of Alicante (50,000 people), and Malaga (23,000). In Huelva, the foreign colonies are important in municipalities such as Sanlucar del Guadiana (27.3 % of permanent foreign population, half of them British), Ayamonte (12.7 %), or Villablanca (18.7 %, although half of them Romanian, most working in agriculture). Some of this retired people have divided residence between Spain and their own countries, where they use to live during summer, and paying their taxes out. The new Brexit conditions has changed for British migrants, who must spend no more than 90 days out their country, and at least 90 inside. So, some of them have decided to sell their residences in Spain. Map 28. Index of ageing in Spain, by provinces (2020) READING: observe that the provinces with higher values in the index of ageing are the same of the Empty Spain. This is because most of the young people in their rural areas migrated. Besides, their children were born in other places, instead in their municipalities of origin. On the other hand, the index is lower in the areas of expansion of the Madrid metropolitan area (Henares River, and La Sagra corridor, respectively in the provinces of Guadalajara and Toledo), where many immigrants live; in provinces with a powerful intensive farming sector (Almeria, Murcia, Gerona), which employ many immigrants too; and in the young Western Andalusia. To put an end to social characteristics of Spanish population, regarding to housing, data about houses floor space come from the Land Registries (National, and each of Biscay, Guipuzcoa, and Navarre). The average floor space of houses in Spain is 144 m2, but with very strong differences, depending on price, centrality in the cities, and density of population. The larger houses are in the rural areas in Catalonia (masias, with an average of 638 m2 in some villages), Castile-Leon, Aragon, and Navarre. They are also in well-off neighbourhoods of single- family homes, as Bellaterra (Barcelona, 699 m2), or La Moraleja (Alcobendas, 420 m2).