global warming causas y efectos, Apuntes de Economía

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Table of contents I Introduction 1 II Consequences 1 II.1 Sea levels 2 II.2 Temperatures 3 III Ways to solve the problem 3 III.1 Politics 4 III.1.1 Clean power plan 4 III. 2 Education 4 IV Will global warming benefit anyone? 5 IV.1 Health 5 IV.2 Species 6 V The World in 2050 6 V.1 Best case scenario 6 V.2 Worst case scenario 7 V. 3 Is there any reason for hope? 7 VI The effect of climate change on the economy 8 VII Conclusions 8 VIII Bibliography 8 Global warming 2/18/2018 Globalwarming_Blanca_Martínez_Belmonte 2 Blanca Martínez Belmonte 18/02/2018 Comput r Science, Group 1 Degree in EconomicsGlob warming Table of figures Figure A.- The Artic is changing 2 Figure B.- Change of global temperatures since 1860 3 Figure C.- Ways to reach sustainability 7 Global warming 2/18/2018 Globalwarming_Blanca_Martínez_Belmonte 5 Global warming 2/18/2018 Globalwarming_Blanca_Martínez_Belmonte 6 I Introduction Ever since the Industrial Revolution1 started, industries started to burn fossil fuels such as coal which release large amounts of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat from the Sun, causing our planet to warm in what is known as the greenhouse effect and we are at the highest levels of carbon dioxide in millions of years. As individuals, the most powerful weapon we have in this battle is the ability to control our own carbon footprint. Our footprint refers to the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere because of what we do. Carbon dioxide is the most dominant of the greenhouse gases we produce as it is emitted when we burn fossil fuel to heat a home, for example. The next most abundant gas is methane (or CH 4): it is the main component of natural gas, but it is also produced when organic matter decomposes in an absence of oxygen. The additional warming that we have seen in recent decades is almost entirely human caused. It is warming really rapidly compared to the episodes of warming and cooling that we have seen in the long- term record. There is no other way that science can explain it other than increased greenhouse gases and the climate is changing too rapidly for humans to adapt. Some studies suggest subtle changes over decades while others predict there could be catastrophic changes in just the next few years. II Consequences The Earth has already warmed almost halfway to what scientists say is a tipping point for climate change: a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature. Warming beyond that tipping point could multiply the effects of climate change heating the Earth even faster, causing sea levels to rise and flooding coastal cities, changing weather patterns to create stronger storms, and more severe droughts. This can affect the food we are able to grow, where we can live and even, our health. It is being such an important issue that the Department of Defense has listed climate change as a ‘’threat to national security’’. At least 97% of climate scientists agree human activity is warming our planet and causing our climate to change, environmentalists say drastic changes in how we provide energy are needed, and economists say small changes could work. A lot of that responsibility is going to fall on this generation and, specially, the following, thus climate change is reshaping our world and our future. The Arctic, the top of the world, is changing. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, and it can create other changes that will impact the entire planet. Ice sheets are really big and are growing over thousands of years as layers of snow pile up into thick masses. Moreover, The Greenland ice sheet is more than 650,000 square miles and only the Antarctic ice sheet is bigger: eight times larger. Combined they hold 99% of the world’s freshwater ice. However, measurements show the Greenland ice sheet is shrinking and shrinking ice means rising sea levels. Worldwide it implies that areas with massive populations along coastal regions might have to relocate to other countries, which, in the end, could lead to conflict. This is being a consequence of the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the planet’s population. Global warming 2/18/2018 Page 8 out of 8 1 Shows the impact of the Industrial Revolution on climate change. Figure B.- Change of global temperatures since 1860 III Ways to solve the problem Looking at the innovators and innovations which are changing our world, exploring cutting-edge innovations in how we drive, how we live and how we fuel our cars, there are all ideas that promise to shape the path to the world of 2050. The world has right now close to a billion cars and we might double the number of cars on the planet by 2050. By doubling the number of vehicles, we increase the amount of fuel they consume and that is going to have a massive footprint in terms of our demand for resources. In order to move vehicles around, we are pulling up carbon that has been stored underground, burnt in our automobiles and so we are putting a huge amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It may feel nice but the risk associated with a warming world is not something to mess with and the issue is how fast this change is happening. Changes that usually happen over thousands of years are happening over centuries and decades. Applying the label ‘’climate change’’ to something makes it seem slow, even a little bit natural. There is an ongoing issue of when will humans stop and when will we learn before consequences are too late, even if it does not affect us, but our descendants. III.1 Politics What we need to look at though, is which of the pathways that come out of this are not only good financially, but those that are also sustainable. This equation is really wide open right now. The world is not doing enough. Making it a very political issue has unfortunately impeded the capacity to put forward sensible thoughtful innovative climate policy. President Obama called climate change ‘’the greatest threat to future generations’’ and Hillary Clinton said it was ‘’an urgent threat and a defining challenge of our time.’’ In fact, Clinton’s goal was to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2025. Global warming 2/18/2018 Page 8 out of 8 However, President Trump takes global warming as a joke as he once tweeted it was ‘’created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.’’ In addition, Trump has called the clean power plan stupid and has vowed to save the coal industry. III.1.1 Clean power plan The clean power plan was Obama’s idea that consisted of making sure global warming was controlled. Its final version aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 32% in the following 12 years. This would mean that various states in the United States shall follow specific standards to reduce these emissions aforementioned. It was said that if each state did not reach plans by 2016 or with extension approval by 2018, the EPA was going to make their own plan. This plan has many benefits. The most important one is the reduction of smog and soot, making the population have health benefits. This includes the avoidance of asthma and a yearly saving in energy bills of an average of 85 dollars. This plan has a pro and a con on employment. There will be more unemployment within the industrial sector while, on the other hand, there will be more jobs created within the solar, wind and energy efficient sectors. Therefore, the fact that Trump won the elections and refused to collaborate with this plan, will have a negative impact on climate change. III. 2 Education Future generations are the ones who are going to suffer the real consequences of global warming therefore it is our job to educate them. It should be indispensable to let children leave a room without turning the lights off or to not recycle. Both of these are examples of ways which could save the planet without making much of an effort. Some say the number of people staring at their cell phones, not caring about the world, leads to huge disconnection from the world. If children, for example, were taught from the beginning that they should recycle and that they must care for their planet, the world would not be in the situation it is right now. In Table 2 it can be seen the amount of people that do not believe in global warming in contrast with the ones who do. This must change soon and the world’s population must take consciousness. Table SEQ Table \* ARABIC 2.- “Human activity does not have a significant effect on the climate’’ Ipsos Mori Polls (2011/2014) Region England London UK Disagree that climate change has not 74% 66% 74% been caused by humans Agree climate change has not been caused by humans 15% 16% 15% IV Will global warming benefit anyone? Canada and Russia both have vast, frozen lands, and could see some economic benefits from a warmer climate. Putin and Russians, therefore, have been reluctant to make ambitious climate commitments. It is expected that these countries will change when they realize they will be swamped by millions of refugees from less fortunate nations. Warmer climate in general would create more usable land that could be used for cultivation, making more food available for the world’s population, coupled with the fact that higher temperatures would lead to longer growing seasons. Plants absorb CO 2 meaning that more of it will make them grow larger and more robust and, in the Arctic, more resources would become accessible due to the melting of the ice as, for example, oil would be much easier to excavate. This climate would also reduce the energy consumption for heating in winter as it would not be as necessary as it is now as temperatures will be higher. Moreover, people who live in countries such as Russia, where temperatures fall deeply in winter, could benefit from the warmer climate. As a result of this, these countries would expect more people to go to visit and the agriculture to improve, which would lead to a more active economy in the long run. IV.1 Health Health conditions will be negatively affected as there will not be clean air, sufficient food nor safe drinking water. Between 2030 and 2050, 250,000 people are expected to die due to illnesses such as malnutrition, heat stress and diarrhea. Economically this is estimated to have the price of, without taking into account health determining sectors, from 2 to 4 billion dollars per year by 2030. Nevertheless, if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced from now by offering better transport it could result in improved health as there would less air pollution and smog. Some populations are more vulnerable than others. For instance, people who live in coastal regions, polar regions and islands could particularly be endangered. On the other hand, it is scientifically proven that warmer climates mean better health, especially in children, as the flu kills too many people yearly. Also, a warmer climate allows more outdoor activities which could include sports benefiting everyone, in particular children. IV.2 Species Country CO2 emissions Energy consumption (as a % of world total) Population China 47 15.18% 20.39% USA 33.4 20.47% 4.64% VI The effect of climate change on the economy According to the Stern Review, it has been predicted that, as a result of climate change, a reduction of the world’s GDP is going to occur. This is because governments are going to face extreme weather events. There is going to be mass migration as it is likely to lead to climate refugees and military intervention. There is also going to be less productivity as there will be many more disruptions due to the weather. As an example, agricultures might suffer an excess of demand and a shortage of supply which would lead to inflationary effects. Agriculture is very sensitive to weather conditions. VII Conclusions Climate change is a very controversial subject. Global warming and climate change are nowadays the biggest challenges the world has to overcome. There are solutions to it, although the population shall be committed to them. Within these solutions stands clean and renewable energy production which is less costly to do than the costs of climate change. Many people think that climate change and global warming do not exist and that it is all just a myth but 97% of scientists that have studied this case say that it does really exist. VIII Bibliography https://climate.nasa.gov/news/ https://www.livescience.com/37057-global-warming-effects.html http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/russia-putin-climate-change-beneficial-economy-1.4048430 https://www.conservation.org/stories/Pages/how-to-talk-about-climate-change-during-the-holidays.aspx http://ecoosfera.com/2016/07/pinguinos-en-peligro-de-extincion-por-cambio-climatico/ https://www.peta.org/issues/animals-used-for-food/meat-environment/ APPENDIXES