Riassunto completo Prisoners of Geography più aggiornamenti 2021, Sintesi del corso di Geopolitica

Scarica Riassunto completo Prisoners of Geography più aggiornamenti 2021 e più Sintesi del corso in PDF di Geopolitica solo su Docsity! PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 1: Russia, attack as defense (through annexation) 1. Explain the role that “buffer zones” continue to play in Russia’s foreign policy. Many Russians live in the Western part of Russia, close to EU. Both Moldova and Ukraine are potential buffer States because of their access to the Black Sea (Moldova indirectly plain, Ukraine directly). Russia uses the term “ethnic Russians” to defend every action taken for stretching its territory, especially in these two States. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova membership to NATO could lead to a war: too close to Russian border (an attack to and from Russia would have to pass from Ukraine and then Moldova), and Russian troops present in these states.  MOLDOVA: - 1856 Treaty of Paris: parts of Bessarabia goes to Moldova - 1991 independency of Moldova  Russia creates Transnistria (part of Moldova with ethnic Russians) - Influence Moldova not to join NATO - Moldova is dependent on Russia’s energy  UKRAINE: - Part of Commonwealth of independent states with Russia. Ukraine, together with Belarus, creates a strong political buffer between it and western Europe, covering almost all the northern EU Plain. Russia supported elections in favor of Lukashenko, Belarus in 2013 (who was closer to Putin’s ideals) - However, in the decades following fall of Soviet Union, Ukraine progressed to be more and more pro-European, which was a major reason for Russian invasion of Crimea (Putin instead said it was to save ethnic Russians), also for the warm water port of Sevastopol. A Ukraine friendlier to the West, would have ended Russian lease on the port of Sevastopol and its ocean access. 2. ________SIBERIA________ is known as Russia’s “treasure chest.” Impossible for a country to invade Russia from Siberia, full of natural resources. 3. Identify Russia’s geographic “Achilles’ Heel” and explain how this weakness influences its actions. Lack of a warm port with global sea-lanes access. Russia’s main Arctic ports: Murmansk, Vladivostok (the biggest)  But they freeze! Vladivostok too close to Japan (close ally of NATO).  Sevastopol : only warm water port of Russia, but Bosporus strait (black sea) controlled by Turkey since Montreux Convention in 1936  restricts Russia’s access to Mediterranean Russia has a small naval presence in Tartus (Syria) which gives access to Mediterranean coast. This is why it helped Syrian government during civil war 2011. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI 4. Identify the purpose of NATO, and explain how this organization influences Russia’s interactions with its border countries. NATO: created in 1949 by US, Canada and several Western EU nations (including ITA) to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. Now 30 members. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. By 2004, every single former Warsaw Pact state was in NATO or in EU (Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Albania, and Romania). Russia’s hate towards NATO because took away all its country friends from Warsaw Pact. Russia has an aggressive presence in Baltic states because fears invasion from the West. The Balkans are the only three states out of 15 that after the fall of Soviet Union did not join the Commonwealth of Independent States (which aligns them politically with Russia). Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, instead, joined both EU and NATO. This is why Russia is so concerned. However, if Russia overstretches in the Baltic States, NATO will intervene. These states are 100% dependent on Russia’s gas. Russia’s relationship with the US is the worst is has been ever since the end of the Cold War. The United States is viewed by Moscow as an aggressive, unilateral, hostile player who poses a danger to Russia's internal stability and international goals. In the post 9/11 period, relations between them were stable, but in 2014 they greatly deteriorated further due to the Russia's annexation of Crimea and Russian military intervention in Ukraine. It was reinforced by the Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War, and from the end of 2016 over Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. elections and alleged interference in the 2020 elections. Mutual sanctions imposed in 2014 remain in place. In 2015, it is the first time the US was named as an external threat to Russia by Russia. 2015: new naval doctrine  top threat Is NATO 5. Identify Russia’s two most powerful weapons. How do these “weapons” allow Russia to maintain some leverage over much of Europe? Gas and oil, apart from nuclear power. Russia is the second world biggest supplier of natural gas. The better your relations with Russia, the less you pay for energy (ex: Baltic countries).  EU did not give strong sanctions to Russia for its annexation of Crimea, because 40% of EU gas/oil come from Russia. Some countries, such as the Balkans, Bulgaria, Finland, are almost fully dependent on Russia’s gas. Germany high gas dependency! RUSSIAN GAS PIPELINES: - North stream route = through Baltic Sea, connects to Germany - Yamal pipeline = cutting through Belarus, gets to Poland and Germany - Blue stream (south) = through Black Sea to Turkey - Until 2015 SOUTH STREAM PROJECT = would connect Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria and Italy. Russia’s attempt to ensure that even during disputes with Ukraine it would still have a major route to large markets in Western Europe and the Balkans (circumvent Ukraine). PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  According to Freedom House, the independence of media is 0 because mostly of the mass media is controlled by the government. The covid – 19 pandemic led to the spread of the restriction on the freedom of speech.  Navalny case: poisoning of Putin’s political opponent. He stated - when he exited from the coma - that the blame was on Putin. His condemnation of two years and half in prison was motivated by his violation of the terms of his suspended sentence.  EU REACTION: further deterioration of EU-Russia relationships, but the attitude is not as severe as it should be. Remember that EU is dependent on Russia also for energy. Freezing funds and sanctions also from US. EU tries to keep good relationships with Russia using a soft approach for a better cooperation (Germany main interlocutor). - March 2016, the EU Foreign Ministers and High Representative Mogherini agreed on ‘five guiding principles of the EU’s policy towards Russia’, which are still the foundation of contemporary EU–Russia relations. 1. Full implementations of Minsk Agreement: done to end war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. 2. Strengthening relations with Eastern Partners and Central Asian ones 3. strengthening internal European Union resilience 4. selective engagement with Russia, both on foreign policy issues but also in other areas where there is a clear European Union interest. 5. Willingness to support more and more the Russian civil society and engage and invest in people-to-people contacts, in particular youth. 10.Russia and Chechnya (HR): With the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Chechnya, like many of the other republics of former Soviet Union, declared its independence. However, unlike Georgia, the Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and the other former Soviet states, Chechnya held only the barest autonomy under Soviet rule and was not considered one of the 15 official Soviet republics. Instead, Chechnya is regarded as one of many republics within the Russian Federation. Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who permitted the dissolution of the Soviet Union, would not tolerate the secession of a state within territorial Russia. Chechnya is predominantly Muslim. President Yeltsin feared the secession of Chechnya would prompt a domino effect of independence movements within the vast Russian Federation. This led to the Chechen wars. In 2000, President Putin escalated Russian military involvement in Chechnya after terrorist bombings in Russian cities continued. In this second round of post-Soviet fighting in Chechnya, the Russian army has been accused of many atrocities in its efforts to suppress Chechen militancy. A peace agreement remains elusive. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI cui USAI fili Dante Noale n Eupleggen SRIPI a in noscon 7 _R 7 to d = i RUSSIA ; Vice id out KR AN E KAZAKHSTAN Drol Transnistria - Ser 4 i puoi gd 3L Ù ZA IMOLDOVA: SOA ROMANIA bo ‘Khersoù Crimea k Sevastopolie Chechnya P\ Qi di i di BUEGARIA bad ; A Re GEORGIA — State border Administrative border | = Disputed border A number of countries that were once members of the Soviet Union aspire to closer ties with Europe, but with certain regions, such as Transnistria in Moldova, remaining heavily pro-Russian, there is potential for future conflict. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 2: CHINA  exceptionalism, becoming a major global player through econ growth and political power 1. China’s maritime power: from a green-power navy to a blue-power navy Blue power navy patrols the Oceans, and this is the new goal of China. China has interests in two oceans: the Pacific and the Indian Oceans. To achieve this, is investing in deep-water ports in Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan (main port: Gwadar to access Indian ocean!) and Sri-Lanka. However, it will take many years to get to US level. Gradually Chinese will put more and more vessels into the seas off their coast and into the Pacific, leaving less spaces for the Americans in the China seas. Free access to Pacific is first hindered by Japan: has to cross the sea of Japan to go to Pacific (Japan is American ally, and also South Korea). Indian Ocean is the world’s waterway for gas and oil, without which China would collapse.  but free access is also hindered by strait of Malacca (passage from Indian to Pacific oceans): controlled by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, all of them diplomatically and military linked to US! Nervous reliance for China (almost 80% of its energy supply passes from there). To reduce this reliance, China has built natural gas and oil pipelines linking the Bay of Bengal up into southwest China. Bering Strait: quickest way for Chinese to reach Arctic Ocean (between Russia and Alaska) CHINA MARITIME CLAIM on South China Sea: China claims almost the entire South China Sea, based on historical fishing use, but Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines and Brunei also have claims. At stake there is the concept of international waters and free passage in peacetime. China, knowing that Americans have allies all over the south china sea (look up), is trying to establish sovereignty in the sea, by building military bases and artificial islands to reach the Pacific in case of war. But this is souring its relations with the nations that China would need on its side! (such Philippines). US wants China to respect the UNCLOS.  South China Sea contains 12% of global fish catch, and 80% of China’s energy import and 40% of its total trade of liquified gas passes through the south China Sea.  The nine-dash line, is the demarcation line used by China (PRC) for its claims of the major part of the South China Sea . The tenth line now is Taiwan. This dispute over ownership of more than 200 tiny islands and reefs is poisoning China’s relations with its neighbors. National pride means China wants to control the passageways through the Chain, which provides access to the world’s most important shipping lanes in the South China Sea. China needs to secure these maritime routes, both for its goods to get on the market and for the items required to make these goods – oil, gas, metals – to get into China. China’s entire economy relies on exports, so restrictions to access to oceans would lead to economic ruin! Diplomacy is one solution, the ever-growing navy is another, but the best guarantees are pipelines, roads, and ports. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI which China would consider an act of war, the US is not to come to its rescue, as the declaration would be considered provocative. US strategic ambiguity: doesn’t recognize legitimacy of Taiwanese gov, but is committed to ensure the island can defend itself, discouraging Taiwan from taking any unilateral action to declare full independence and dissuading Beijing from trying to unilaterally annex the island). On the other hand, China wants Taiwan but is not near of a military challenge. Instead, China is using soft power by increasing trade and tourism between the two states. This approach is to persuade people of Taiwan they have nothing to fear in rejoining the motherland (one china two systems principle as used with Hong Kong). Taiwan is also important to China for its large industry of semiconductors and has actually good economic relations with Beijing. 7. China’s belt and road initiative: It’s China’s colossal infrastructure investment that would link China (Asia) with the Middle East and Europe, passing also through Africa. It is considered to be the world’s largest platform of economic cooperation, passing through 65 countries and would significantly expand China’s economic and political influence, boosting trade and economic growth. It was devised in 2013 by president Xi Jinping, and infrastructure projects include roads, ports airports, railroads etc.. China, with this project, would definitely regain the protagonism is searching back in the international scenario. The belt would be the land route, while the road is the maritime route.  The belt is based on the historic Silk Route which served as economic, cultural, political exchange until the 18th century, playing a major role in the development of Chinese civilization. It will connect China to South Asia, Middle East and Europe, including the China-Pakistan economic corridor (massive port China is building). The road part, referred to the sea routes, will connect China to South-East Asia, Africa, and Europe, passing through Sri Lanka, Dubai, Greece, Spain….  Xinjiang is an important region for this project, because the land route would pass entirely through it, but also the Balkans are really important (port of Piraeus, bringing Chinese values and system into Western Balkans), and Africa (unexploited natural resources, cheap labor). With this project, China would create a net of interdependence. Once country become economic dependent to China, this has also a geopolitical impact! China’s exporting his value system. Lift people out of extreme poverty  Western powers: at G7 last meeting, they set the B3W (build back better world), advertising transparency, good government, environment, but there is no budget and no time table. Everything is already done by IMF, WB. The main focus is values!! PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI 8. US and CHINA: US President Joe Biden: reenforcing anti – China alliance. The logic: country protection and economic perspective. European are in better position to discuss with China policy making. Washington sees China’s growing military capabilities as a threat.  Taiwan issue: US strategic ambiguity  positions in the pacific: China wants to become a naval force across two oceans, Pacific and Indian = threat for US naval power. UNCLOS. 9. Hong Kong and China: one country two systems: "One country, two systems" is a constitutional principle of the People's Republic of China describing the governance of Hong Kong and Macau after they became Special administrative regions of China in 1997 and 1999, respectively. The adherence of the governance of Hong Kong to this principle has since been disputed. The constitutional principle was formulated in the early 1980s during negotiations over Hong Kong between China and the United Kingdom. It provided that there would be only one China, but that these regions could retain their own economic and administrative systems, while the rest of Mainland China uses the socialism with Chinese characteristics system. Under the principle, each of the two regions could continue to have its own governmental system, legal, economic and financial affairs, including trade relations with foreign countries, all of which are independent from those of the Mainland . The PRC has also proposed to apply the principle in the unification it aims for with Taiwan. As a result of the passage of the National Security Law by Hong Kong in July 2020, Hong Kong is sometimes considered to have reverted to a de facto "one country, one system" status. Hong Kong now has been completely absorbed into China. 10. China and Russia: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization also known as the Shanghai Pact, is an Eurasian political , economic , and security alliance born in 2001. It is the world's largest regional organization in geographical scope and population, covering three-fifths of the Eurasian continent, 40% of the world population, and more than 20% of global GDP. The SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five, a mutual security agreement formed in 1996 between China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,and Tajikistan (now also Uzbekistan). The organization is expected to counter the growing influence of the United States military outreach program in Central Asia.  Born as a mechanism to favor the resolution of territorial disputes between the six adhering countries, the organization has progressively become institutionalized, intensifying cooperation between its members both on security issues and in areas such as the economic, energy and cultural ones . The SCO is primarily centered on security-related concerns, often describing the main threats it confronts as being terrorism, separatism and extremism. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  the proposed SCO Energy club Can be interpreted as a key Russian-Chinese project to promote the smooth development of their relationship as energy provider and consumer, respectively. It provides a model for a collaborative nuclear energy development, offering members the opportunity to cooperatively develop domestic nuclear programs and reduce carbon emissions, while simultaneously driving the development of nuclear energy worldwide and stabilizing Central Asia. In the economic sphere, both China and Russia want to increase ties in the region and ensure markets for their exports in the Central Asian economies. For Russia, the SCO Energy club is useful as a means for cooperation in infrastructure development and for coordination of its energy policies with those of the other members. For china, hopes that Russia and Central Asia can become a reliable and significant source of raw materials.  Russia also seeks to safeguard itself from excessive Chinese control of the SCO through its involvement in other regional organizations in which it won’t play a secondary role to china, like the Eurasian economic community and the collective security treaty organization.  In 2001, the close relations between the two countries were formalized with the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, a twenty-year strategic, economic, and – controversially and arguably – an implicit military treaty. 11. China and Africa: China is now of a size where it cannot support its population with its size alone! Africa has emerged almost as China’s China, supplying the country. China has pumped enormous amount of money into the continent (sort of neocolonialism), buying huge amount of lands in Africa to grow food and exploit the natural resources. So now it imports more food (from Africa) than it imports. China has built many infrastructures in Africa, such as railroads, dams for energy, roads etc.. Political goal behind this: Africa is one of the least developed areas in the world, so easy to exploit its natural resources and China invested in African mining and farming. Another resource for China is Africa’s labor! For China, labor costs less in Africa for lower skilled manufacturing firms (this is like EU colonialism!) But also: China wants the African votes in the UN assembly against recognition of Taiwan as a country! If they vote against, they receive infrastructure project. Furthermore, China is giving loans to African countries with no requirements on factors like HR respect or democratic elections (like IMF does instead). PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Poeies State borir Administrative border da — \ linois indian \ N carol Scali \_ Carolina Georcia. - © © Ò SÌ a em à RS Miampshire * fssachusetta colgono S North lina BAHAMAS CUBA PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 4: western Europe: blessed by geography 1. EU REGULATION IN TERMS OF ASYLUM POLICIES The CEAS (Common EU asylum system) is the system covering all aspects of the asylum process and has a support agency - the European Asylum Support Office (EASO). 1951 refugee convention. The legal framework is the Dublin convention (1990) and Dublin Regulation  determine which EU MS is responsible for processing an asylum application. Based on three main principles: only one opportunity to apply for asylum, one MS responsible for examining the application, asylum seeker may be transferred to a country to which they have been assigned. Criticism: The Dublin system, however, was not designed to ensure a sustainable sharing of responsibilities for asylum applicants across the EU. Since the responsibility for assessing the asylum procedure falls to the country of first entrance, it means that it disproportionately falls on the border’s countries. Moreover, most applicant seek asylum in a different country to the one in which they have arrived. In practice, this means the responsibility for the vast majority of asylum claims is placed on a small number of Member States – a situation which would stretch the capacity of any Member State. This is unsustainable if current migration patterns continue and is the reason the Commission has now presented new options for reform of the Dublin system. In the Balkans, only Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia, Albania, Serbia took part of this regulation, while Slovenia and Macedonia closed their borders. HOW TO IMPROVE THIS REGULATION? - create a new mechanism for emergency relocation and redistribution (permanent distribution mechanism), developing an integration model. - strong cooperation and investment policy in origin countries (to avoid economic migrant flows) - or transferring responsibility from national to EU level (more resources). 2. 2008 crisis: When the crisis hit, the wealthier countries had to bail out the poorer ones, and a bitter domestic row broke out. Bailout-imposed Austerity measures led from Germany, while Greeks led the backlash. In Greece (but also UK) these measures imposed from the north were seen as an assault on sovereignty. The euro crisis wider economic problems have revealed the cracks in the House of Europe (especially along the line that divides north with south). 3. Brexit: The two main issues that caused the British to edge towards EU exit door are sovereignty and immigration. Anti-EU opinion is angered by the amount and type of laws enacted by the EU, which the UK, as part of the membership deal, had to abide by. At the same time the wave of economic immigrants and refugees arriving in the UK, from Middle East and Africa, fueled anti- PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI EU feeling as many migrants wanted to reach Britain, and it was believed they were encouraged to do so by the EU countries through which they pass. Prejudices against immigrants always rise during times of economic recession, and the effects have been seen across the continent and have resulted in the rise of right-wing political parties, all of which militate against pan-nationalism and thus weaken the fabric of EU. Also, austerity measures took during 2008 crisis were seen as too long and too heavy. 4. The Balkans: Characterized by economic backwardness (especially for western Balkans when they dislocated from Yugoslavia). The region is an economic and diplomatic battleground between EU, NATO, Turks, and Russia, all vying for influence.  Russia: has yet to forgive the Western nations for the bombing of Serbia in 1999 and the separation of Kosovo. Issue of Ukraine, Balkans giving arms to Ukraine.  Turkey: EU-Turkey agreement on Balkans 2016 = Turkey will implement measures to stop and reduce migration, while EU is committed to lifting visa restrictions for Turks to enter in Schengen area and provide financial support. This agreement will also close borders for immigration to Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia. Bosnia is the preferred route to have access to international protection, quarantine in camps.  EU: - Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Greece and Slovenia are in EU - Albania, Serbia-Montenegro and North Macedonia are towards EU membership (candidate status) in 2025 - Kosovo is not recognized by EU, while Bosnia still has lot to do before entering EU The EU has developed a policy to support the gradual integration of the Western Balkan countries with the Union. Shared solutions: creation of EU-Western Balkans summit (between EU and Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, North Mac and Kosovo) economic and investment plan adopted by the European Commission to recover the economy of the region, supplying for vaccines, it set a budget for the recovery to support the capital and competitiveness and sustainable connectivity (9 BILLION). Opening full negotiations with Albania and North Mac for EU accession. However, Western Balkans should stay in course with reforms, with fair and rigorous conditionality. - 2021 Open Balkan : economic and political zone similar to the Schengen area and the objective is to encourage the EU integration. Creation of unified market, elimination of barriers to travels, preparation to EU accession (for now it is only between Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia!!) - Stabilization association process: European Union's policy towards the Western Balkans, established with the aim of eventual EU membership. The central objective of the SAP is to PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 5: Africa: prisoners of eu political geography 1. Ghana: Jamima presentation Ghana has been a constitutional democracy since 1992 and is characterized by a Presidential democracy. - Freedom of the press is 30/180, while Italy is 41 due to mafia, criminal organizations and neofascist movements. Media independence and pluralism is present, however 1/3 of media firms are owned by politicians which poses a problem. - Democratic index is 59/180: Ghana is among the few countries in Africa practice continuous constitutional democracy since the first democratic elections held in. Unitary presidential constitutional democracy with a parliamentary multiparty system. Majoritarian over consensus democracy has been a challenge to Ghana’s democracy. Italy is 29. - Corruption perception index position is 75/180 2. Congo: one of the biggest failures of EU drawing line, weak and divided state. Although china buys more than 50% of DRC, it still remains a poor country. here, the deadliest world conflict since WW2 and still requires UN’s largest peacekeeping mission to prevent full-scale war from breaking out again. 3. Egypt: home to the Nile, the longest river in the world, which is full navigable. Egypt is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Modern Egypt has now the most powerful armed forces of all Arab states, thanks to American military aid, but remains contained by desert, sea, and its peace treaty with Israel (Camp David accords: Egypt first Arab country to recognize state of Israel, president was Al-Sadat). Facing Islamist insurgency, especially in the Sinai, and has to control Suez Canal, through which passes 8% of world’s entire trade every day. Muslim brotherhood: geopolitical organization founded in 1928 in Egypt, turned Egypt into an Islamic state, tried to overthrow the military power, spread rapidly in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and North Africa. Illegal activities and try to influence politics.  relations with Italy: gas pipelines and military: We have seen how in Egypt the human rights abuses are constant. Nevertheless, Italy continues to stipulate relationship with this country. First, Egypt is the country with which Italy has strategic relations, it is the first one at the global level. The main reasons are linked to the Italy’s energetic dependence and due to the strategic position in the Middle East area. In Egypt there is hydrocarbons’ abundance, and in 2015 ENI discovered Zohr natural gas field in Egypt . So, Natural gases is one of the largest in the world and the biggest in the Mediterranean. The ENI started the management of the natural gas field, so Italy acquired a strategical asset to take into consideration its strategic needs and to diversify resources. ENI is working for the extraction and production of hydrocarbons. Even of the natural gas field ENI assigned with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company. - Eastern Mediterranean gas forum : institutional form of cooperation since 2020 on creation of an Eastern Med gas pipeline thanks to recent discoveries of gas in the Mediterranean (Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Italy  excludes Turkey!) PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI - Moreover, in 2019 Egypt has officially become the first client in the world of Italian military industry. Italy supports Al-Sisi government since 2013. In conclusion on the one hand the cooperation to the Egypt is beneficial to Italy in economic terms and Egypt try to identify itself as a reliable partner. Also, for its role of mediator but on the other hand the Italian strategy of appeasement of authoritarian regime revision the Italian foreign policy. The Italian government should not keep its asset point from the political point of view. It is always very difficult to find a balance to the right to isolate the human rights and the rights. Probably the right balance we go on in political relations this should help to advocate to the securitization. Probably we should not sell weapon to Egypt, at least as Italy, we have one and half voice students, one has been killed and the other one is in prison and torture. There is not a debate in this point, the research of right of balance is something left apart. 4. Nigeria: sub-Saharan Africa largest producer of oil. 5. Africa and China: 1/3 of China’s oil imports come from Africa.  China’s investments in African infrastructures: - Road and bridge corporation: building $14 billion railroad project to connect Mombasa to Nairobi - China railway engineering corporation : $2 billion modernizing the Benguela railroad line.  what does China want? Materials (oil, minerals, metals) with which to make its products, and political stability to ensure the flow of materials and products. In exchange, China doesn’t ask difficult questions about HR, and they don’t demand economic reforms as IMF or WB might 6. Africa agreements  Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)  East African Community: Burundi, Kenia, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania  South African national defense force PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 6: middle east 1. Sykes-Picot term: 1916 British Colonel Sykes drew lines with French Picot to divide the Middle East and create nation states (North: French, South: British)  betrayed promises given to tribal leaders which partially explain the unrest and extremis of today 2. ISLAM, the dominant religion: Division between Sunni (Orthodox) and Shia Muslims, but also many divisions inside these two groups! War to each others. 3. The Kurds: Muslim ethnic group living in the region between Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Armenia. 5 million of them live in Iraq.  wanted to create Kurdistan (promised to them with treaty of Sevres 1920 but never maintained). They reacted to establishment of dictatorship, in 1978 created PKK (Kurdistan workers party by Abdullah) to create autonomous state, many acts of terrorism and Saddam (Iraq) killed many of them in 1988. Kurdish aspirations for self-determination were often ill-received, and Kurds historically experienced persecution or pressure to assimilate in their respective countries; the Kurds of Turkey received unsympathetic treatment at the hands of the government. 4. Jordan: The majority of the population is Palestinian  since the occupation of Israeli in Westbank 1967, many Palestinian flew to Jordan because it was only Arab State granting them citizenship . Also, many Iraqi and Syrian refugees. 5. Lebanon: Shia Muslims and Hezbollah group. First Lebanese civil war broke out in 1958 between the Maronite Christians and the Muslims, who by this time probably slightly outnumbered the Christians. They are now in a clear majority but there are still no official figures, and academic studies citing numbers are fiercely contested. Some parts of the capital, Beirut, are exclusively Shia Muslim, as is most of the south of the country. This is where the Shia Hezbollah group (backed by Shia-dominated Iran) is dominant. 6. Syria: Syria is another multi-faith, multi-confessional, multi-tribal state which fell apart at the first time of asking. The country is majority Sunni Muslim – about 70 per cent – but has substantial minorities of other faiths (Muslim brothers, kurds). Until 2011 many communities lived side by side in the towns.  1970: coup d’etat Assad family claimed power. Now Assad is the pres. Damascus capital  2011 civil war: pro-dem protests against Assad, government used violence to suppress them (Arab Spring did not lead to dem)!!! PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI involvement within this context: made several agreements with US which made a lot of agreement with Iran which is a strong enemy of Saudi Arabia. 11. The involvement of Great powers: USA, RUSSIA, NATO, UN (presentation)  US: supports a two-state solution, and Israel is considered a State by US (historic allied of Israel). President Trump was the only one to uphold a solution in which Israel would have been sovereign in an undivided Jerusalem. But Biden said he will still support the most neutral solution of two states. For many years the US kept their ambassy in Tel Aviv but then Trump decided to move the embassy in Jerusalem. The prospects for resolutions are very difficult.  RUSSIA: the USSR supported Palestine. Now, the Russian federation observes a realignment with Israel while maintaining support for Palestine. The rapprochement between Russia and Israel reflects a demographic factor: many soviet Jewish migrated to Israel after the fall of USSR, maintaining a strong connection to Russia. Russia is maintaining a marginal role in the conflict, because its action as a mediator would mean exposing itself to an unsustainable political and military commitment, and could also lead to new frictions with Turkey, Iran, but also US.  NATO: the most prominent solution is two state. The purpose of NATO would be to assist in the implementation of a comprehensive Israel-Palestine peace. Three conditions as a kind of progressive way to the peace: create a peace agreement, help both parties implement their agreement, UN endorsement of NATO involvement. However, on the ground still nothing has been done! Long way to go.  UN: 1947 UNSCOP (UN special committee on Palestine) to try solution to the conflict. however, it only intensified rivalry between the two countries. Both jews and arab state rejected this plan leading to Israel war of 1949. Today, the UN involvement is in doubt: it exercises a marked diplomacy together with US and Egypt, and searches for ways to stop the conflict either with the creation of a new resolution or through arbitration. Following the scope of ceasefire, has sent truckloads of humanitarian aid to Gaza Strip. 12. The conflict from a military perspective  three main factions:  Al-Fatah: 1990 renounced armed resistance, now towards negotiation, diplomacy and open dialogue  Hamas: came to prominence after the first Intifada in 1987 as an armed resistance to Israel. It is a fundamentalist party opposed to the UN resolution 1948 and it established itself. It’s an operative branch of Muslim brotherhood. In fact, we have a sort of entertaining between political and military aspect. Hamas gives a lot of importance to its military wing. Their weapons come from Iran and Syria. Hamas uses funds for terrorism against Israel in Gaza. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  Israel: to intercept the launch of missiles by Hamas militia from the Gaza’s strip, Israel developed the Iron Dome, an anti-rocket countermeasure developed with US support. Israel’s existence is signed by being surrounded by enemies, countries which were allied with each other to destroy its existence (Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia etc..). The biggest threat to Israel existence now comes from IRAN! It raises the issue of nuclear weapons. 13. Turkey: 13.1. Why Turks have never been truly recognized as part of Europe? A country that is both European and Asian. Lies on the borders of the Arab lands but is not Arabic, Turks have never been truly recognized as part of Europe for a series of motives: - Less than 5% of its territory is in EU - Bad record on human rights, especially when it comes to the Kurds - Economy: 75 million people, EU fear that given the disparity in living standards, EU membership will result in a mass influx of labor - Turkey is a majority Muslim country, difficult debate about values and Muslim integration 13.2.Turkish history: 1920s: Kemal general became president  resisting the terms imposed by allies after end Ottoman empire, modernizing Turkey and making it part of Europe 1980s: continuous rejection by Europe, stubborn refusal of Turks to become less religious 1989: Turgut Ozal becomes president: religious man who encouraged Turkish nationalism (turkey as the bridge between EU, Asia, Middle East 2014: Erdogan presidency  growing nationalism, promotes rigid version of Islamic religion 13.3. Turkey’s relationship with other countries: Russia: we know that in the Syrian civil war, the two governments sustained different factions  Russia backing president Assad, while Turkey helping the Sunni-Muslims overthrow the government. 2015 Russia intervened militarily in Syria, and Turks shut down a Russian jet. Russia’s goal is to have influence in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. However, Turkey works with Russia to develop new pipelines to deliver energy to EU countries (it’s reliant on Russia’s energy). United States: Americans are alarmed of a new cold war between Turkey and Israel (are both US allies) and are working to bring them back together. They strengthened NATO position in the eastern Mediterranean (in NATO term, Turkey is key country because controls entrance and exit from Black Sea through the Bosporus, so against Russia’s possible break out into the Mediterranean). European Union: Turkey has been a candidate member since 1999 and was ready to become EU member state in 2006, respecting both the Maastricht and Copenhagen criteria. However, France vetoed its entrance (for colonial cities in Africa). From that moment on, Turkey changed its foreign policy, with Erdogan looking more towards Russia and the Arab countries. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  Custom Union agreement: was an alternative for Turkey for having a privileged relationship with EU. EU- Turkey trade relations are based on an Association Agreement from 1963 and a Customs Union agreement, which entered into force on 31 December 1995. It covers all industrial goods but does not address agriculture (except for processed agricultural products), services or public procurement. Bilateral trade concessions apply to agricultural, coal and steel products. The Customs Union provides for a common external tariff for the products covered. It also foresees that Turkey aligns to EU law (the acquis Communautaire) in areas related to the Customs Union, such as customs legislation, the removal of technical barriers to trade, and the approximation of laws on protecting intellectual, industrial and commercial property and competition rules (including state aid). Since its entry into force, the value of bilateral trade has increased more than fourfold. The Customs Union is also broadly recognized for having significantly contributed to Turkey’s integration into European production networks. The alignment with the EU acquis and the liberalization of tariffs have enhanced Turkey’s global competitiveness. Around 30% of Turkey’s GDP is associated with trade. 13.4. Turkey and human rights: After 2016 coup d’etat failed attempt against state institutions and Erdogan, Turkey was accused to not respect the rule of law and transparency in Turkish judiciary system.  In 2021, Turkish government withdrew from Istanbul convention (prevent and combat violence against women and domestic violence). Associations and parties defy the decision of the President. Country representative and the representative of the main international institutional stated that there was the need to reconsider this withdrawal. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Instead, for Pakistan, control of Kashmir would give water security: The Indus River originates in Himalayan Tibet but passes through the Indian- controlled part of Kashmir before entering Pakistan and then running the length of the country and emptying into the Arabian Sea at Karachi. Annexing Kashmir would secure Pakistan’s water supply. Pakistan continued to train militants to infiltrate across the Line of Control and another battle broke out over Kashmir in 1999. By then both countries were armed with nuclear weapons, and for several weeks the unspoken threat of an escalation to nuclear war hovered over the conflict before American diplomacy kicked in and the two sides were talked down. 4. Afghanistan and the rise of Taliban 1980s Afghanistan: fight soviet occupation (mujahedeen army) 1989: soviets pulled out 1992: civil war with tribes fighting for power 1994: militia called Taliban raised up  wanted an Islamic government (make the city safe again). They declared Islamic emirate in Afghanistan and established their own laws (restrictive laws)  Pakistan helped the Taliban to rise to power because believed they were the only one able to create a stable government and a government friendly to Pakistan (so against India). 2001 9/11: bin laden was hiding in Afghanistan with Taliban’s help  Taliban refused to cooperate with US and so US invaded them  Taliban’s out of government and Afghanistan created new government with new constitution with Karzai president.  BUT the Taliban regrouped!! War of US in Afghanistan against Taliban Taliban wanted resistance to the new government and reestablishment of regime before US intervention, they set up a parallel state! They control now 1/5 of afghan districts, controlling the roads.  the international community has tried to get Taliban and Afghanistan to talk, but without great results.  DOHA agreement: US soldiers leave Afghanistan  withdraw of US troops and Taliban accepts no other terrorist force will threaten US. At this point Taliban accelerated their offenses and took over many cities in Afghanistan! surrounded Kabul (2021). Afghan People were leaving Afghanistan! migration problem!  Pakistan vs India in Afghanistan : now that NATO forces have left, Pakistan needs Afghan friendship in case of war against India, but also India does. To thwart each other, each side seeks to mold the government of Afghanistan to its liking – or, to put it another way, each side wants Kabul to be an enemy of its enemy. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979 India gave diplomatic support to Moscow, but Pakistan was quick to help the Americans and Saudis to arm, train and pay for the Mujahedeen to fight the Red Army. Once the Soviets were beaten, Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI, helped to create the Afghan Taliban, which duly took over the country. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  In 2001 the Pakistani Taliban had been hosting the foreign fighters of Al-Qaeda for several years. Then, on 9/11, Al Qaeda struck the USA on its home soil in an operation put together in Afghanistan. In response US military power ran the Taliban and Al Qaeda out of town. Afghan Northern Alliance anti-Taliban forces moved down to take over the country and a NATO stabilization force followed.  After 9/11, US forced Pakistan to participate in the “War on Terror”, and here Pakistan played a double game: privately accepted American drone strikes, while publicly decrying them. Moreover, Pakistan military and ISI had to turn on the very Taliban leaders they had trained and formed friendships with in the 1990s. Nevertheless, the Taliban bled the British, the Americans, and manage to make NATO go away. They knew one day the Americans would have gone away (in 2015), and Pakistan knew that when this happened, they would have still needed a Pakistan- friendly government in Afghanistan (against India!!). Thus, Pakistan continued to give help to the Taliban, denying to the US they were playing a double game BUT US found Bin Laden was hiding in Pakistan so very angry with them. o Afghan Taliban: most of them are Pashtun, the same ethnicity as the majority of Pakistan. Peshawar is Pakistan’s city which serves as Taliban’s military-industrial complex. o Pakistani Taliban: natural outgrowth of Afghan version. Also predominantly Pasthun and will not accept domination from a non Pashtun power. After NATO left in 2015, Pakistan’s job of beating the Pakistani Taliban has become even harder. Pakistan sustains the Taliban because believes they are the only one capable of fight against ISIS and Al Qaeda.  the Durand line: is the name of the international border that separates Pakistan and Afghanistan, established by the 1893 agreement between the Afghan Emir Rahman and the British diplomat Durand, dividing the Pashtun population. Afghanistan states that, at the time of the signing of the 1893 agreement, the country was subject to strong pressure from British colonial rulers, and so never respected this territorial division (many Afghan Pashtuns were living on the other side of the line, so under Pakistan). Pakistan inherited the Durand Line when it got its independence in 1947, but the Pashtuns rejected the demarcation, and so Afghanistan. The Kabul government has repeatedly opposed the project, even before the Taliban took power, arguing that the demarcation would have divided families living in the so-called "Pashtun tribal belt", on the border between the two countries. Experts claim that Pakistan’s support for the Taliban is aimed to eliminate ethnic Pashtun nationalism with an islamic identity. Since 2017, Pakistan has already fenced off most of the border that separates the two nations, about 2,600 km long, to stop the crossings from one side of the border to the other by groups of armed militants, despite protests in Kabul. Tensions between Kabul (Afghanistan) and Islamabad (Pakistan) over the border fence have increased since December 2021, when videos began circulating on social media of the Afghan Taliban destroying part of the Pakistani fence, claiming it had been erected within the territory. The authorities in Kabul had confirmed the news on December 19, 2021, and the Afghan Ministry of Defense, said that the Taliban armed forces had PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI prevented the Pakistani army from erecting an "illegal" border fence in the eastern province of Nangarhar.  Possible scenario: the Americans will lose interest and the Pakistani government compromises with the Taliban, pushing its agenda in Afghanistan. The Americans have limited interest in Afghanistan so long as the Taliban quietly promise not to host an international jihadist group again. The Pakistanis will maintain enough links with the Afghan Talibs to ensure that governments in Kabul will listen to Islamabad and not cozy up to India, and once the pressure is off, they can do a deal with the Pakistani Taliban. But there is the problem of the Durand line!! 5. AFGHANISTAN: DOHA AGREEMENTS (2020) : bringing peace to Afghanistan between Islamic State of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the US as a state and is known as the Taliban and the US. Guarantees that Taliban will not allow groups or individuals against the security of US and its allies to use the soil of Afghanistan. In return, US will withdraw all foreign military forces from Afghanistan and will not intervene in domestic affairs. 6. INDIA: The world’s seventh largest country, with the second-largest population. It has borders with six countries and thousands of miles of navigable waterways. It has reliable water supplies, huge areas of arable land, it is a major coal producer, has useful quantities of oil and gas, even if it is always an importer. For India, Pakistan remains the number one foreign policy priority. 6.1.relationship with China:  chief issue that causes friction is Tibet. China wanted Tibet to prevent that will gain independency and that India would base military forces there. India’s response to Chinese annexation of Tibet was to give a home to the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan independence movement. if Tibet would ever gain independency, India will remind it who their friends were during the years of exile.  Nepal: Beijing ensures it has influence with the Maoist movement there, while India does not want a Maoist dominated Nepal ultimately controlled by China but know that China’s money and trade is influencing there.  India has strengthened its ties with Burma, the Philippines, and Thailand, but more importantly it is working with Vietnam and Japan to check China’s increasing domination of the South China Sea. In this it has a new ally, albeit one it keeps at arm’s length – the United States.  India has a large, well-equipped modern navy which includes an aircraft carrier, but it will not be able to compete with the massive Blue Water navy which China is planning. Instead, India is aligning itself with other interested parties so they can together at least shadow, if not dominate, the Chinese navy as it sails the China seas, through the Strait of Malacca, past the Bay PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI 4. Great powers and Korea: The Americans would be ghting alongside the South, the Chinese military would be on full alert and approaching the Yalu, and the Russians and Japanese would be looking on nervously.  for China : a unified Korea, allied to the US, which is allied to Japan, would be too much of a potential threat to allow.  for Japan : decide if it wanted a powerful, united Korea across the Sea of Japan. Given the brittle relations between Tokyo and Seoul, Japan has reasons to be nervous about such a thing. Moreover, developing north Korea would mean starting from ground zero, and there would be many costs to sustain. 5. Japan: nippon, “sun origin”. Geographical advantage: 120 miles from the Eurasian land mass, which is among the reasons why it has never been successfully invaded. The Chinese are some 500 miles away across the East China Sea; and although there is Russian territory much nearer, the Russian forces are usually far away because of the extremely inhospitable climate and sparse population located across the Sea of Okhotsk.  Maritime people: by the beginning of the twentieth century Japan was an industrial power with the third-largest navy in the world  world’s largest importer of natural gas, and third largest importer of oil. 5.1.Japan history: 1895: occupied Taiwan 1910: annexation Korea 1931: occupied Manchuria  all these occupation for natural reserves!  invaded also Indochina  US ultimatum! Withdrawal or embargo  Japan responded with attack to Pearl Harbor 1945: Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing by US  Japanese surrender, US helped them to rebuild, but no possibility to have a army, air force or navy.  but then RISE OF CHINA: was becoming increasingly apparent and so the Americans, realizing they were going to need military allies in the Pacific region, were prepared to accept a re-militarized Japan. 2013 : Security Strategy document  named China as potential enemy 2015 : building of Aircraft carrier. 5.2.Japan’s main threat: China It is China that keeps Japanese leaders awake at night and keeps them close to the USA, diplomatically and militarily. Many Japanese, especially on Okinawa, resent the US military presence, but the might of China, added to the decline in the Japanese population, is likely to ensure that the post-war USA–Japan relationship continues, albeit on a more equal basis. China’s enormous population being 1.3 billion people, Japan will need friends in the neighbourhood. So the Americans are staying in both Korea and Japan. There is now a triangular relationship between them, as underlined by the intelligence agreement noted above. Japan and South PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Korea have plenty to argue about, but will agree that their shared anxiety about China and North Korea will overcome this. Chapter 9: latin America: when geography is against you 1. History: 1494: Treaty of Tordesillas  colonialism of Spain and Portugal, agreed to share the land. 1800s: first independence movements, led by Bolivar in Venezuela and San Martin in Argentina. However, many of the newly independent countries broke apart, either through civil war or cross-borders wars. The three richest nations (Bra, Arg, Chile) set off a ruinously expensive naval arms race, which held back the development of all three. 1823: Monroe Doctrine: US warned off the European colonialists saying that Latin America was US backyard and sphere of influence. US pressure on Latin America not always felt positively. 1945: Latin America becomes a battlefield for the cold war. Many coups d’état, military dictatorships and human rights abuses (for ex Nicaragua). The end of the war allowed many nations to move toward democracy. 2001: Inter American democratic Charter  34 nations, proclaims that “the people of the Americas have a right to democracy and their governments have an obligation to promote and defend it”. US binding Latin American countries to itself economically by building up trade pacts such as the North America Free Trade Association and the Central American free trade agreement. 2. Disputes: - Bolivia-Chile: 1879 War of the Pacific  Bolivia lost a large chunk of its territory and has been landlocked ever since and is among the poorest countries in Lat Am. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI - Belize-Guatemala: divided by the British during colonialism. Guatemala claims Belize as part of its sovereign territory but, unlike Bolivia, is unwilling to push the issue. - Chile-Argentina: argue over the Beagle channel water route - Ecuador-Peru: Ecuador has historical claims on Peru. 3. MEXICO: has two-thousand-mile-long border with US, almost all of which is desert, acting as a buffer zone which however is more advantageous to the Americans due to the disparity in their technology.  All Mexicans know that before the 1846–8 war with the United States the land which is now Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona was part of Mexico. The conflict led to half of Mexico’s territory being ceded to the US. Mexico is destined to live in US’s shadow, lacking a navy capable of securing the Gulf of Mexico and so relying on the US one.  The Mexican border has always been a haven for smugglers, but never more so than in the last twenty years. This is a direct result of the US government’s policy in Colombia, with President Nixon War on Drugs in the 1970s, closing many Colombian drug cartels. The cartels responded by creating a land route – up through Central America and Mexico, and into the American Southwest. Mexico makes its living by supplying consumer goods to America, and as long as Americans consume drugs, Mexicans will supply them. Without drugs the country would be even poorer than it is, as a vast amount of foreign money would be cut off. With drugs, it is even more violent.  Mexico is now in the grip of what is almost a civil war. The cartels try to control the territory through intimidation, the government tries to pretend is in charge of the rule of law and hundreds of civilians are being killed. 2014 murder of 43 student teachers by a cartel. 4. CENTRAL AMERICA: PANAMA Panama is the only country which benefitted from the thin shape of central America. 1914: American controlled Panama canal opened, leading economic growth and saving ships a huge journey from the Atlantic to the Pacific 1999: Panama took control of the canal, although is regarded as a neutral international waterway that is safeguarded by the US and Panama navies  problem for the Chinese, because Panama and US are friends. 5. CENTRAL AMERICA: NICARAGUA and China influence China has designs of being a global power, and to achieve this aim it will need to keep sea lanes open for its commerce and its navy. The Panama Canal may well be a neutral passageway, but at the end of the day passage through it is dependent on American goodwill. So, why not build your own canal up the road in Nicaragua?  The Nicaragua Grand Canal project is funded by a Hong Kong businessman named Wang Jing. The $50 billion cost estimate for the project, which is due for completion in the early 2020s, is four times the size of the entire Nicaraguan economy and forms part of the substantial investment in Latin America by China, which is slowly but steadily supplanting the USA as the PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  Economic: unemployment, economic stagnation, low income, high income inequality, worsened with covid  political: insecurity due to murders and violence, corruption, lack of system legitimacy, no trust in institutions, constant shifts between left and right, rise of populism and political polarization led to social discontent  social: socio-economic inequality linked to a crisis in the representative political class, discrimination and poorly functioning social protection policies, led to uprising and protests (annus horribilis 2019), gender inequalities  environmental: climate, deforestation, extractivism, oil exploitation, water privatization and pollution, air pollution in urban areas PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI Chapter 10: ARCTIC, geopolitical competition increasing 1. Geography: The arctic ocean is 5.4 million squares miles. Its region includes lands in parts of Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US (Alaska)  ice melting allows cargo ships to make the journey through the Northwest Passage In the Canadian Archipelago for several summer weeks a year, thus cutting at least a week from the transit time from EU to China. The northeast route, or Northern Sea Route as called by Russia, that hugs the Siberian coastline, is also now open for several months a year and is becoming an increasingly popular sea highway.  there is also an undiscovered natural gas and oil reserve. Many energy companies are already applying for licenses and beginning exploratory drilling. 2. UNCLOS: Claims on sovereignty are based on the United Nations Convention on the law of the sea, established in 1994. This act affirms that a signatory to the convention has exclusive economic rights from its shore to a limit of 200 nautical miles (unless this conflicts with another country’s limits), and can declare it an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The oil and gas in the zone is therefore considered to belong to the state. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI  The ‘Arctic Five’, those states with borders on the Arctic Ocean, are Canada, Russia, the USA, Norway and Denmark (due to its responsibility for Greenland). They are joined by Iceland, Finland and Sweden, which are also full members of the Arctic council. There are twelve other nations with Permanent Observer status having recognised the ‘Arctic States’ sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction’ in the region, among other criteria. For example, at the 2013 Arctic Council, Japan and India, which have sponsored Arctic scientific expeditions, and China, which has a science base on a Norwegian island as well as a modern icebreaker, were granted Observer status.  All the sovereignty issues stem from the same desires and fears – the desire to safeguard routes for military and commercial shipping, the desire to own the natural riches of the region, and the fear that others may gain where you lose.  the Arctic Council is composed of mature countries, most of them democratic to a greater or lesser degree. The international laws regulating territorial disputes, environmental pollution, laws of the sea and treatment of minority peoples are in place. Most of the territory in dispute has not been conquered through nineteenth-century imperialism or by nation states at war with each other. 3. China and Arctic: Want to be a polar power. 4. Moscow and Arctic: Moscow has already put a marker down. In 2007 it sent two manned submersibles 13,980 feet below the waves to the seabed of the North Pole and planted a rust-proof titanium Russian flag as a statement of ambition. New economic and military investment in the Arctic for its natural resources. Putin for the first time added the Arctic region as a sphere of Russian influence in its official foreign policy doctrine, and increased its defense budget. It has also the largest fleet of ice-breakers in the world, 33 in total, some of them are also nuclear-powered. 5. US and artic: since they are becoming energy-independent, are not giving much importance to the arctic. US has not ratified the UNCLOS treaty. 6. EU and Arctic: EU commission declared strengthening of commitment for a pacific and sustainable Arctic (2021), affirming the need for international cooperation. EU wants also to build office in Greenland, and sustain a judicial regime in Arctic waters. Does not want to authorize any new increase in hydrocarbon reserves in Arctic. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI CRISIS OF DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM? DEMOCRATIZATION IS NOT A LINEAR PROCESS Exogenous factors (often in young democracies): the democratic system is threatened from outside the institutions. Young democracies need time to make institutions stronger and those exogenous factors do not help them. Create political instability, weak institutions, bruises which are easily solvable if correctly treated.  internal factors: civil/military conflict (Sudan), ethnic plurality (Rwanda), political corruption (Mexico, Colombia), parties’ and individuals’ interests more important than state’s interests.  external factors: wars (2WW), International/foreign interference (USA in cold war), globalization, threat of autocracies (Taiwan) Endogenous factors: inside the institutions, which are proportionally majorities and make the problems become bigger  old democracies (USA, EU), normal characteristics but used in an excessive way (polarization/populism simple solution to complicated problems), lost faith in the system, cancer (hard to remove if not detected at first sight). - Consequences : rise of extremist, anti-system, anti-political establishment parties, division, xenophobia, mistrust in government and institutions, weakening democratic principles  US “a flawed democracy”, backsliding Good: Political participation but mistrust, electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, Bad: ex-president Trump saying media put out fake news, a minority dominates the majority, polarization between democrats and republicans  Poland: populism arising, it can be seen a backsliding in democracy. It started its democratic transition in 1989 and it consolidated when Poland join NATO (1999), Poland has been known as a model democratizer. It supported Ukraine, Bulgaria with funds and political support for democratizing those countries. Poland was experiencing economic growth thanks to the European Union, this change with the election of 2015. Rise of populism due to two crises: economic recession 2008, refugee crisis 2015. The only one party biased the presidency and show how difficult is to build a strong opposition to this populism party. On 7th October 2021  the decision of the Polish Constitutional Court not to recognize the authority of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) on certain points of national law is a frontal attack on the functioning of the EU and marks a dangerous escalation in the conflict which has pitted Warsaw against Brussels for five years on the rule of law. This judgment, of a political nature, is part of the battle waged by the nationalist conservative party in power since 2015, Law and Justice (PiS), to control the judiciary. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI The government, following the instructions of PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has continued to undermine the independence of the judiciary and punish rebel judges. In response to these attacks on the independence of the judiciary, the CJEU has taken several decisions that Warsaw has not implemented.  Tunisia: a democracy in crisis Tunisia began a democratic transition especially in 2014 with the adoption of a new constitution, bringing new challenges to the country. Some segments of the population still lack full political rights, homosexuality is illegal, safeguards against corruption are very weak. Although the constitution guarantees freedom of opinion, expression, information and publications, journalists still face pressure and intimidation from government officials. The situation escalated with the election in 2019 of President Saied. Uncertainty reigns supreme in Tunisia, especially after July when President Said withdrew the powers of the government in office, handing over the formation of the new government to Professor Rom Dané, the country's first female minister. A dangerous action that brings the centralisation of power into the hands of the president. Citizens took to the streets to demonstrate against the high cost of living and in particular against youth unemployment. With the centralisation of power in the hands of the president, the situation has, if possible, further deteriorated because the International Monetary Fund has suspended aid to Tunis and at the moment when the central bank announced the start of two technical consultations with the international staff, a new stop came. This follows the decision of the Tunisian General Labour Union, one of the organisations part of the Tunisian quartet that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for building the new Tunisia. For now, the Tunisian Labour Union has decided to rebel against the increase in taxes towards workers - designed by the government to meet the demands of the international monetary fund. In such a fragile situation, mediation is necessary. Of the so-called Arab springs, the Tunisian one is considered the most successful, but with the centralisation of power and the rest of a political class incapable of succumbing to the shortcomings complained of by the citizens, doubts arise spontaneously. HOW CAN WE IMPROVE DEMOCRACY? By strengthening the citizen engagement and then by creating alternative to the representative democracy (like direct democracy or deliberative democracy, citizens assemblies). Democracy has not to be taken for granted. Improving education, ensuring and preserving independent media, hold politicians and the media accountable. PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY - BARBIERI BREXIT UK and CHINA before and after Brexit The UK’s relationship with China during the coalition and Cameron Governments was largely focused on the economic benefits of closer ties. The UK played a key role in the founding of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, but it is unclear whether it has retained its influence in the intervening years. China has a longstanding appreciation for the UK’s history, culture and universities, and these continue to have a positive impact on China’s perception of the UK. However, political events such as Brexit and the UK’s response to Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang have led to cooling of the relationship, and a lowering of the UK’s importance in China’s view. U.S.-UK Relationship Since deciding to leave the EU, the UK has sought to reinforce its close ties with the United States and reaffirm its place as a leading country in NATO. Most analysts believe that the two countries will remain close allies that cooperate on many diplomatic, security, and economic issues. Nevertheless, Brexit has fueled a debate about whether the UK’s global role and influence are likely to be enhanced or diminished. President Biden and top officials in the Biden Administration have generally maintained a skeptical view of Brexit, but many observers expect the Administration to seek pragmatic cooperation with both the UK and the EU. Members of Congress hold mixed views on the merits of Brexit. The United States and the UK conducted five rounds of negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement in 2020. If the Biden Administration continues the negotiations, Congress may actively monitor and shape them and could consider implementing legislation for any final agreement. The Biden Administration and some Members of Congress also are concerned about developments in Northern Ireland and Brexit’s possible implications for Northern Ireland’s peace process, stability, and economic development. UK – RUSSIA After Brexit, Moscow will remain a power to restrain — a troublemaker rather than a partner for London. First, the British authorities are in principle concerned about any strengthening of Moscow, which plays according to its own rules. Britain is wary of its influence both on European security and on global issues such as stability in the Middle East or arms control. London’s fears are aggravated by negative historical baggage. In particular, the Litvinenko murder case and the assassination attempt on the Skripals. One of the first actions of the Johnson government this year was the extension of sanctions against Dmitry Kovtun and Andrei Lugovoi. The pair are suspected of poisoning Litvinenk.